40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah been saying this for years actually. It’s not even just anecdotal, either. If we think about H.A.’s statistical approach, which focused on the precipitation distribution/anomalies as they correlate to index mode vs modality ..etc, her conclusions were always that the primary loading pattern is the PNA … The NAO was less correlated. That at minimum argues that blocking down stream is a dubious driver. … NAO -to me - is a wave decay dumpster down stream of the N/A continent interacting with the termination/eastern end of the Pacific R-wave transmission. In other words it’s indicative … not the conductor Yea, the - NAO helps to "back" the flow and provide a reservoir, if you will. for all of that conserved energy to pool into beneath our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Nice look on the Canadian for next Tuesday Wednesday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 21 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nice look on the Canadian for next Tuesday Wednesday 30hr snow lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 30hr snow lol. Days and days... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Days and days... Inches and inches 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Currier and Ives for the duration? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 30hr snow lol. Something about that setup on all the models looks kind of wonky. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Personally I think Atlantic blocking is overrated. Yes, I know it helps with biggies...but just my overall take. The KU book says the ideal location for blocking is on the eastern shore of Greenland. This Canadian archipelago stuff just seems to be self-interfering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 30hr snow lol. Start at 30 and adjust up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Something about that setup on all the models looks kind of wonky. Agreed. Said that earlier that the GFS looked weird, probably due to the fact that they just don't know quite what the Eff to do with it yet Get Torchs cutter outta here first then we'll see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Geez, OP Euro phases the whole PV lobe in...no wonder it does that on the 20th. Its doing it later than it was yesterday, which is a great trend for most of NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The OP trend is for a later phase and the EPS trend is for a stronger phase...not a bad combo- piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The OP trend is for a later phase and the EPS trend is for a stronger phase...not a bad combo- piece. 9 days out…but let’s hope there’s something to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Need to get thru the 16-17th before looking for the 20th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Nice hit on the 12z GFS for the 16th i might add. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, dryslot said: Need to get thru the 16-17th before looking for the 20th. I don't need to in order to recognize which has a higher ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 GFS near the Cape early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't need to in order to recognize which has a higher ceiling. We've had a high ceiling before, But you need to start at the floor before you can get to the ceiling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 More of an interior hit. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 This site is such a PITA with attachments. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, dryslot said: We've had a high ceiling before, But you need to start at the floor before you can get to the ceiling. You don't need to "start" anywhere....identification of a high ceiling doesn't speak to the probability of realization. That is the reader's issue. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Warning criteria for many that run of the GFS away from south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, dryslot said: Warning criteria for many that run of the GFS away from south coast. Yeah, definitely a nice hit for many. Good stat padder that should lay some snowpack with the coming cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Canadian is a torch aloft. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, CoastalWx said: Canadian is a torch aloft. Of course it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: More of an interior hit. Shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I'd be fascinated to see how today's forecast models would handle the March Superstorm a week out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian is a torch aloft. Good, We toss it anyways even if it was cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I would love to hear somebody explain how the Canadian gives me sleet despite the entire column being below freezing...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, RDRY said: I'd be fascinated to see how today's forecast models would handle the March Superstorm a week out. I don't think much differently considering those archaic models were virtually locked on for nearly a week leading in. It was a such a strong signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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