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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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17 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

33F. Can't even get to sub 32 approaching coldest time of year. Ant wait to look back end of March and say that early Dec had coldest morning low

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Don’t worry…it’s unfortunately coming. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Don’t worry…it’s unfortunately coming. 

Looks like for a week, with best snow chances for SNE of the season. 
 

But I see a big warmup beginning around the 20th. Not sure it can classify as a January “thaw” given how warm it’s been outside of far interior of NNE, but that’s the cliche. Might pass for a thaw after next week’s cold.
 

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Just now, jbenedet said:

Looks like for a week, with best snow chances for SNE of the season. 
 

But I see a big warmup beginning around the 20th. Not sure it can classify as a January “thaw” given how warm it’s been outside of far interior of NNE, but that’s the cliche. Might pass for a thaw after next week’s cold.
 

It’s a transient cold shot that is a much modified version of the cold over the west.  

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24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s a transient cold shot that is a much modified version of the cold over the west.  

Agreed. Not looking frigid. Not severe cold. N to BN for bulk of the week. Closer to N along the coast.
 

But a very big warmup follows.

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6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

6z gfs with a massive cave to euro with a stronger slower low like the Euro had on the jan 10th 00z run.. not good verbatim .. a lot to iron out on guidacne in that timeframe 

I wouldn’t be too worried yet…but then again the Pope is saying there’s a good chance of SNE snow, so ya, the opposite most always happens with P.P(Pope Predictions), so maybe it is bad news:lol:.

 

All kidding aside, this thing is far from figured out. Just another possibility. 

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29 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s a transient cold shot that is a much modified version of the cold over the west.  

I agree that the worst of the cold will be west, but personally, I am okay with forgoing the opportunity to have the PV queef on my noggin. I agree with the pattern relaxation, but this is not December...its a new pattern with an Aleutian low in place/building PNA and another PV lobe poised for descent.

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree that the worst of the cold will be west, but personally, I am okay with forgoing the opportunity to have the PV queef on my noggin. I agree with the pattern relaxation, but this is not December...its a new pattern with an Aleutian low in place/building PNA and another PV lobe poised for descent.

Why would we want the worst of the cold here? That would ensure cold and dry with no snowpack since most in SNE will have no snow by Saturday morning 

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My goal isn't to get to -10*F...its to have as much snowfall possible IMBY...and the month is off to a hell of a start, meltdown not withstanding....but that was expected this season. I have never felt as though it would be a big retention season. That said, I think we have an opportunity for more of that in February.

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I don’t like that the El Niño forcing calmed (relaxed) this month; while El Niño state actually intensified to major territory. I believe that means it is more likely that it makes its biggest appearance yet, as MJO 4,5,6 at end of the month. 

So what do you believe happens once the MJO progresses beyond phase 6 as the calendar flips to February?

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35 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

6z gfs with a massive cave to euro with a stronger slower low like the Euro had on the jan 10th 00z run.. not good verbatim .. a lot to iron out on guidacne in that timeframe 

6Z GFS just looks... odd to me for the 16th. No doubt the evolution will change at 12Z lol

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