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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

tuesday. the GFS shifted significantly towards the ECMWF's handling of the event. it lets vorticity move out ahead, establishing more confluence. then, it trails energy that tries to amplify into the confluence. this is what the ECMWF does

Ahh ok..you added to this post, so it seems like this would be conducive for an even better surface reflection. 

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I didn't include 1993 since I was only really listing since 2000....we were close to 30" depth that month too in ORH, but never topped it. Hard to do late season (unless it's March 2001, lol....that year was on another level).

what about April 97, although short lived and before 2000

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4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

That's actually fairly mild 850s, if you check anomalies they'll be +5 ish maybe a bit higher

Do you have a climo chart?  Purples on our side of the pole have been lacking until quite recently.

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ranges from 2-3" left at my house. Down from a peak depth of 18". Full coverage, though...only grass is under and around the pine tree.

depth ranging from 4 to 10 here should be mostly gone with the next storm

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We’ve got a solid foot of water logged snowpack on the ground… the water runnel patterns are like a topographic map in the snowpack too.

This event surprised me.  Local observer had 7.3” on 0.90” water in town before it went over to all rain.  Solid net gain in SWE, while increasing depth by several inches.

Hopefully another attempt at building a true snowpack.  The last multi-week attempt got wiped out by the December flood.

 

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29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We’ve got a solid foot of water logged snowpack on the ground… the water runnel patterns are like a topographic map in the snowpack too.

This event surprised me.  Local observer had 7.3” on 0.90” water in town before it went over to all rain.  Solid net gain in SWE, while increasing depth by several inches.

Hopefully another attempt at building a true snowpack.  The last multi-week attempt got wiped out by the December flood.

 

This event got better and better for NNE and elevations in CNE and CAD hub in Conway area basically until go time 

Impressed How long the General Conway - Madison - Glen corridor held on for 10-11” . They do heavy wet snows of 10-12 inches there pretty well 

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This event got better and better for NNE and elevations in CNE and CAD hub in Conway area basically until go time 

Impressed How long the General Conway - Madison - Glen corridor held on for 10-11” . They do heavy wet snows of 10-12 inches there pretty well 

I think it’s even more impressive that an area so prone to downsloping as mine got 12”. That front end meant business, and the cold air hung on remarkably well

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4 minutes ago, alex said:

I think it’s even more impressive that an area so prone to downsloping as mine got 12”. That front end meant business, and the cold air hung on remarkably well

Agreed . I thought Bretton woods was gonna have like 5-6” . Maybe you benefited from more of a SSE/SE flow than SE/ESE ? You mentioned the next town Over from you (Carol) had only 5”. I wonder if Powder freak has some insight into what about the flow allowed Bretton woods to Crush and not downslope 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Agreed . I thought Bretton woods was gonna have like 5-6” . Maybe you benefited from more of a SSE/SE flow than SE/ESE ? You mentioned the next town Over from you (Carol) had only 5”. I wonder if Powder freak has some insight into what about the flow allowed Bretton woods to Crush and not downslope 

I’m not sure. Franconia also got mostly rain, and they’re not too far. Must be something with the nuance of the wind direction vs mountain ranges to our south 

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4 minutes ago, alex said:

I’m not sure. Franconia also got mostly rain, and they’re not too far. Must be something with the nuance of the wind direction vs mountain ranges to our south 

Ugh Cannon only reported 3” New . Yikes 

I see Sugarloaf had 18”! (Had to be up high )

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Agreed . I thought Bretton woods was gonna have like 5-6” . Maybe you benefited from more of a SSE/SE flow than SE/ESE ? You mentioned the next town Over from you (Carol) had only 5”. I wonder if Powder freak has some insight into what about the flow allowed Bretton woods to Crush and not downslope 

Very strong flow.  At the right height. The downslope was probably past/beyond them to the NW.  It’s like rocks in a river.  Sometimes the water level is shallow and the water falls sharply/immediately behind a rock, other times if the flow is deeper and stronger, the rock enhances the wave to max out downstream of it… and the resulting crash downward is even further out.

It’s all about where the wave of moisture maxes out.  Upstream of the barrier in shallow flow, over the barrier, or beyond the barrier in deeper flow.

 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Very strong flow.  At the right height. The downslope was probably past/beyond them to the NW.  It’s like rocks in a river.  Sometimes the water level is shallow and the water falls sharply/immediately behind a rock, other times if the flow is deeper and stronger, the rock enhances the wave to max out downstream of it… and the resulting crash downward is even further out.

It’s all about where the wave of moisture maxes out.  Upstream of the barrier in shallow flow, over the barrier, or beyond the barrier in deeper flow.

 

Makes complete sense

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has a clipper dropping down at 180 hours. Haven't seen those in years. 

 

 

 

Deep winter coming 

It would be great to feel like Duluth for a stretch and not Daytona. 
 

Gfs trying to cook something up for the 20th as well. 
 

Regardless, we’ll have chances at a snowy stretch finally. 

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It would be great to feel like Duluth for a stretch and not Daytona. 
 

Gfs trying to cook something up for the 20th as well. 
 

Regardless, we’ll have chances at a snowy stretch finally. 

Cmc for the 20th

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_35.png

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