Allsnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, CoastalWx said: Canada was leftover PNA warmth. The ridge out west was also rebuilding, with the PV pressing south into nrn Canada. It wasn't a very cold look here, but serviceable and not the Pacific blowtorch we had in December for sure. Good snowpack should exist in the source region, if it's AN. Thanks. I just don’t want it to turn into some script out of December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Thanks. I just don’t want it to turn into some script out of December. I suppose a few days could be mild, but I don't see a similar look lasting for weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Hopefully both events drop snow for the coast next week. Definitely a warm risk after the block breaks downs. The end of the eps today was pretty torchy in Canada I'm sorry.... qg? TT? Pope? Are you all one in the same? C'mon..... You are always the one to Weenie everyone's posts ( kind of like that sneaky little nat who you can't but you can hear them in your ear ). Ha!! All in fun. Enjoy the Winter Snows!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canada was leftover PNA warmth. The ridge out west was also rebuilding, with the PV pressing south into nrn Canada. It wasn't a very cold look here, but serviceable and not the Pacific blowtorch we had in December for sure. Good snowpack should exist in the source region, if it's AN. That's my take, too....no one needs January 2004. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 55 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Is rather them be mostly offshore than cutting through Stowe, that’s for sure Stowe residents will sit back in their recliners, feet up, drinking a beverage relaxed and probably take a few naps along the way until about 48hr…when they wake up to the srefs and arw’s indicating the nw trend has begun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Thanks. I just don’t want it to turn into some script out of December. We all have trauma lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We all have trauma lol Such a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 That euro run crushes me. Fits the double cutter pattern reset nicely. Watching closely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 40 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: Agreed regarding the 19th. If the ridge indeed builds to the modeled amplitude over the West, it’s reasonable to conclude that the downstream response has lots of room to dig deeper and orient into a more favorable position for redevelopment. Based on 12z OP runs, we would need the ridge axis to split the difference between GFS and Euro positioning to open the door to something bigger. Some parts to move around but doable at 10 days ( lol ) ... But the tail end of this Euro run is clearly attempting a subsume phase, which are among the most powerful cyclogen mechanism we can find - other than the extraordinarily rare triple stream phases. 1993 March is whopper example of this latter rarity. The Cleveland Super Bomb in Jan 1978 I think was one too. 1978 Feb back here in the E was a two stream but it was on 'roids because it married a weak Miller A response into a Miller B/capture. Kind of a freak Anyway, that much SPV dislodging is interesting. I think the 17th ( or is it 16th now?) is in play but it was likely destined to low/middling system. The phase change of the +d(PNA) is time dependent. It changes -1 SD to +1 over about 10 day span... That's not exactly a huge restoral forcing suggestion when it's that gradual. It's intuitive to think of that as a series of events rather than the big dawg. .. Just thinkin' out loud. That's all predicated on the assumption that current projections don't change ... eek 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 This would be notable at the end of the GFS run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I’ve been fairly pessimistic about this winters pattern so far, but the pattern for the 1/20 period legitimately looks great and has the potential to deliver a big one. Both the Atlantic and pacific look to be cooperating, something we haven’t seen in a long time. Even the 1/16 threat which doesn’t have as ideal of a pattern could be sneaky good if it doesn’t amp too much and run inland. That looks like higher ratio snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Some parts to move around but doable at 10 days ( lol ) ... But the tail end of this Euro run is clearly attempting a subsume phase, which are among the most powerful cyclogen mechanism we can find - other than the extraordinarily rare triple stream phases. 1993 March is whopper example of this latter rarity. The Cleveland Super Bomb in Jan 1978 I think was one too. 1978 Feb back here in the E was a two stream but it was on 'roids because it married a weak Miller A response into a Miller B/capture. Kind of a freak Anyway, that much SPV dislodging is interesting. I think the 17th ( or is it 16th now?) is in play but it was likely destined to low/middling system. The phase change of the +d(PNA) is time dependent. It changes -1 SD to +1 over about 10 day span... That's not exactly a huge restoral forcing suggestion when it's that gradual. It's intuitive to think of that as a series of events rather than the big dawg. .. Just thinkin' out loud. That's all predicated on the assumption that current projections don't change ... eek Love it when Tip has subsume in his posts. Usually means something good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Love it when Tip has subsume in his posts. Usually means something good. Yeah and a mention of the Super Storm. I bricked up reading it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: The only time I've ever cared about retention is when we are trying to break the 'surviving snow depth' record. by that I mean, 30" of stable pack depth. It's hard to exceed that number - incidentally ... I've come to find over the years ... about 7 or so of them, that when nearing that number we start getting weight settling this, or the errant rainy event there. Even in the best years that's true. There are two years that I have seen 36" ... one was 1996 prior to the January thaw, and then there 42" I had near the end of February 2015. Otherwise 30 seems to be the tough threshold Yeah getting past 30" is always tough, though we managed to do it several times in the 2000-2015 period....March 2001 over the interior was the first one (1996 if we want to include a few years earlier), then we did it again in early Feb 2011, then we managed to do it again in March 2013 (but not on the coastal plain), then of course Feb 2015. Years like Jan/Feb 2005 got "stuck" around 27-30", ditto 2007-08, Jan 2009, Feb 2014, Mar 2018, and we fell a little short of that number in Feb 2021 (more like 23-24" depth) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah getting past 30" is always tough, though we managed to do it several times in the 2000-2015 period....March 2001 over the interior was the first one (1996 if we want to include a few years earlier), then we did it again in early Feb 2011, then we managed to do it again in March 2013 (but not on the coastal plain), then of course Feb 2015. Years like Jan/Feb 2005 got "stuck" around 27-30", ditto 2007-08, Jan 2009, Feb 2014, Mar 2018, and we fell a little short of that number in Feb 2021 (more like 23-24" depth) Do you guys have to look this stuff up, or do you recall it from memory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I have an early write up done, but having problems uploading images, so will wait til home. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah getting past 30" is always tough, though we managed to do it several times in the 2000-2015 period....March 2001 over the interior was the first one (1996 if we want to include a few years earlier), then we did it again in early Feb 2011, then we managed to do it again in March 2013 (but not on the coastal plain), then of course Feb 2015. Years like Jan/Feb 2005 got "stuck" around 27-30", ditto 2007-08, Jan 2009, Feb 2014, Mar 2018, and we fell a little short of that number in Feb 2021 (more like 23-24" depth) December 2020 interior, Binghamton add that. 4 feet OTG IIRC! Pretty sure superstorm over the interior somewhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: Do you guys have to look this stuff up, or do you recall it from memory? Willl does it from memory even years before he was born. He's a weather savant. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Willl does it from memory even years before he was born. He's a weather savant. Live look at Will processing the latest event. 1 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: December 2020 interior, Binghamton add that. 4 feet OTG IIRC! Pretty sure superstorm over the interior somewhere Yeah I didn't include 1993 since I was only really listing since 2000....we were close to 30" depth that month too in ORH, but never topped it. Hard to do late season (unless it's March 2001, lol....that year was on another level). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: As long as it's not curtains of snow coming down at 34F for 15 hours, looks good. Just inland…it’ll be fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Live look at Will processing the latest event. That might have been before all the kegstands in college. Now i just merely have my memory 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That might have been before all the kegstands in college. Now i just merely have my memory Nothing like a kegstand of cherry wheat to jog the snow memories loose. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GFS pretty much caved to the ECMWF with an idea of a trailing wave and a set-up wave that establishes confluence. much more confluence over Nova Scotia on this run GFS and ECMWF are actually quite similar now.. the GFS is just more progressive and disjointed, shocker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Trailing wave and set up wave for what…Tuesday? Or for the following threat? I’m a little confused on what you’re trying to point out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah getting past 30" is always tough, though we managed to do it several times in the 2000-2015 period....March 2001 over the interior was the first one (1996 if we want to include a few years earlier), then we did it again in early Feb 2011, then we managed to do it again in March 2013 (but not on the coastal plain), then of course Feb 2015. Years like Jan/Feb 2005 got "stuck" around 27-30", ditto 2007-08, Jan 2009, Feb 2014, Mar 2018, and we fell a little short of that number in Feb 2021 (more like 23-24" depth) I was in Waltham in 2001. We didn't have the March snow pack at that location - probably owing to the "interior" layout of that year? All I remember is telling Harvey Leonard 5 days before that storm there might be a problem with it being in time because heights over Florida were too high. F'n absolutely nailed it. ...I mean, I certainly wasn't proud of it in that case. We got like 10 or 12" outside my apartment - impressive, but a massive bust compared to the leading week of unrelenting cheer leading PR over Earth's Great Red Spot of a storm. Anyway, I remember a lot of disappointments that year. I think it might have been a gaped bum-hole winter for the coast I'm guessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS pretty much caved to the ECMWF with an idea of a trailing wave and a set-up wave that establishes confluence. much more confluence over Nova Scotia on this run GFS and ECMWF are actually quite similar now.. the GFS is just more progressive and disjointed, shocker I found this 12z EPS mean a bit of an eye-pop frankly... It's not only abruptly more coherent as a signal, there's spread toward Jersey containing some real bombs compared to where this was the 12 hours prior. Did anyone mention this ? sorry - piece of shit work day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Trailing wave and set up wave for what…Tuesday? Or for the following threat? I’m a little confused on what you’re trying to point out? tuesday. the GFS shifted significantly towards the ECMWF's handling of the event. it lets vorticity move out ahead, establishing more confluence. then, it trails energy that tries to amplify into the confluence. this is what the ECMWF does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: tuesday. the GFS shifted significantly towards the ECMWF's handling of the event Is this a good thing for winter weather enthusiasts? Or is it more deconstructive interference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Meanwhile... zip from the 18z GEFs... that's been trending in the EPS though. Little bit of a conflict there huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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