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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Canada was leftover PNA warmth. The ridge out west was also rebuilding, with the PV pressing south into nrn Canada. It wasn't a very cold look here, but serviceable and not the Pacific blowtorch we had in December for sure. 

Good snowpack should exist in the source region, if it's AN. 

Thanks. I just don’t want it to turn into some script out of December. 

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28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully both events drop snow for the coast next week. Definitely a warm risk after the block breaks downs. The end of the eps today was pretty torchy in Canada 

I'm sorry.... qg? TT? Pope? Are you all one in the same? C'mon..... You are always the one to Weenie everyone's posts ( kind of like that sneaky little nat who you can't but you can hear them in your ear ). Ha!! 

All in fun. Enjoy the Winter Snows!!! 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canada was leftover PNA warmth. The ridge out west was also rebuilding, with the PV pressing south into nrn Canada. It wasn't a very cold look here, but serviceable and not the Pacific blowtorch we had in December for sure. 

Good snowpack should exist in the source region, if it's AN. 

That's my take, too....no one needs January 2004.

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55 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is rather them be mostly offshore than cutting through Stowe, that’s for sure 

Stowe residents will sit back in their recliners, feet up, drinking a beverage relaxed and probably take a few naps along the way until about 48hr…when they wake up to the srefs and arw’s indicating the nw trend has begun. 

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40 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Agreed regarding the 19th. If the ridge indeed builds to the modeled amplitude over the West, it’s reasonable to conclude that the downstream response has lots of room to dig deeper and orient into a more favorable position for redevelopment.
 

Based on 12z OP runs, we would need the ridge axis to split the difference between GFS and Euro positioning to open the door to something bigger.

Some parts to move around but doable at 10 days ( lol ) ...

But the tail end of this Euro run is clearly attempting a subsume phase, which are among the most powerful cyclogen mechanism we can find - other than the extraordinarily rare triple stream phases.  1993 March is whopper example of this latter rarity.  The Cleveland Super Bomb in Jan 1978 I think was one too.  1978 Feb back here in the E was a two stream but it was on 'roids because it married a weak Miller A response into a Miller B/capture.   Kind of a freak

Anyway, that much SPV dislodging is interesting.

I think the 17th ( or is it 16th now?) is in play but it was likely destined to low/middling system.  The phase change of the +d(PNA) is time dependent.  It changes -1 SD to +1 over about 10 day span... That's not exactly a huge restoral forcing suggestion when it's that gradual.  It's intuitive to think of that as a series of events rather than the big dawg. ..

Just thinkin' out loud.  That's all predicated on the assumption that current projections don't change ... eek

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I’ve been fairly pessimistic about this winters pattern so far, but the pattern for the 1/20 period legitimately looks great and has the potential to deliver a big one. Both the Atlantic and pacific look to be cooperating, something we haven’t seen in a long time. Even the 1/16 threat which doesn’t have as ideal of a pattern could be sneaky good if it doesn’t amp too much and run inland. That looks like higher ratio snow.

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50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Some parts to move around but doable at 10 days ( lol ) ...

But the tail end of this Euro run is clearly attempting a subsume phase, which are among the most powerful cyclogen mechanism we can find - other than the extraordinarily rare triple stream phases.  1993 March is whopper example of this latter rarity.  The Cleveland Super Bomb in Jan 1978 I think was one too.  1978 Feb back here in the E was a two stream but it was on 'roids because it married a weak Miller A response into a Miller B/capture.   Kind of a freak

Anyway, that much SPV dislodging is interesting.

I think the 17th ( or is it 16th now?) is in play but it was likely destined to low/middling system.  The phase change of the +d(PNA) is time dependent.  It changes -1 SD to +1 over about 10 day span... That's not exactly a huge restoral forcing suggestion when it's that gradual.  It's intuitive to think of that as a series of events rather than the big dawg. ..

Just thinkin' out loud.  That's all predicated on the assumption that current projections don't change ... eek

Love it when Tip has subsume in his posts. Usually means something good.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The only time I've ever cared about retention is when we are trying to break the 'surviving snow depth' record.

by that I mean, 30" of stable pack depth.  It's hard to exceed that number - incidentally ... I've come to find over the years ... about 7 or so of them, that when nearing that number we start getting weight settling this, or the errant rainy event there.  Even in the best years that's true.  There are two years that I have seen 36" ... one was 1996 prior to the January thaw, and then there 42" I had near the end of February 2015.  Otherwise 30 seems to be the tough threshold

Yeah getting past 30" is always tough, though we managed to do it several times in the 2000-2015 period....March 2001 over the interior was the first one (1996 if we want to include a few years earlier), then we did it again in early Feb 2011, then we managed to do it again in March 2013 (but not on the coastal plain), then of course Feb 2015.

Years like Jan/Feb 2005 got "stuck" around 27-30", ditto 2007-08, Jan 2009, Feb 2014, Mar 2018, and we fell a little short of that number in Feb 2021 (more like 23-24" depth)

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah getting past 30" is always tough, though we managed to do it several times in the 2000-2015 period....March 2001 over the interior was the first one (1996 if we want to include a few years earlier), then we did it again in early Feb 2011, then we managed to do it again in March 2013 (but not on the coastal plain), then of course Feb 2015.

Years like Jan/Feb 2005 got "stuck" around 27-30", ditto 2007-08, Jan 2009, Feb 2014, Mar 2018, and we fell a little short of that number in Feb 2021 (more like 23-24" depth)

Do you guys have to look this stuff up, or do you recall it from memory?

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah getting past 30" is always tough, though we managed to do it several times in the 2000-2015 period....March 2001 over the interior was the first one (1996 if we want to include a few years earlier), then we did it again in early Feb 2011, then we managed to do it again in March 2013 (but not on the coastal plain), then of course Feb 2015.

Years like Jan/Feb 2005 got "stuck" around 27-30", ditto 2007-08, Jan 2009, Feb 2014, Mar 2018, and we fell a little short of that number in Feb 2021 (more like 23-24" depth)

December 2020 interior, Binghamton add that.  4 feet OTG IIRC!

Pretty sure superstorm over the interior somewhere

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4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

December 2020 interior, Binghamton add that.  4 feet OTG IIRC!

Pretty sure superstorm over the interior somewhere

Yeah I didn't include 1993 since I was only really listing since 2000....we were close to 30" depth that month too in ORH, but never topped it. Hard to do late season (unless it's March 2001, lol....that year was on another level).

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GFS pretty much caved to the ECMWF with an idea of a trailing wave and a set-up wave that establishes confluence. much more confluence over Nova Scotia on this run 

GFS and ECMWF are actually quite similar now.. the GFS is just more progressive and disjointed, shocker

2125472983_gfs_z500_vort_us_fh120_trend(1).thumb.gif.eb10c2dc879171475e9f57786447f58c.gifgfs-deterministic-namer-z500_dprog-5384800.thumb.png.25805bea51c40e6b72a7730617bf3f94.png

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah getting past 30" is always tough, though we managed to do it several times in the 2000-2015 period....March 2001 over the interior was the first one (1996 if we want to include a few years earlier), then we did it again in early Feb 2011, then we managed to do it again in March 2013 (but not on the coastal plain), then of course Feb 2015.

Years like Jan/Feb 2005 got "stuck" around 27-30", ditto 2007-08, Jan 2009, Feb 2014, Mar 2018, and we fell a little short of that number in Feb 2021 (more like 23-24" depth)

I was in Waltham in 2001.  We didn't have the March snow pack at that location - probably owing to the "interior" layout of that year?  

All I remember is telling Harvey Leonard 5 days before that storm there might be a problem with it being in time because heights over Florida were too high.  F'n absolutely nailed it. ...I mean, I certainly wasn't proud of it in that case. We got like 10 or 12" outside my apartment - impressive, but a massive bust compared to the leading week of unrelenting cheer leading PR over Earth's Great Red Spot of a storm. 

Anyway, I remember a lot of disappointments that year.  I think it might have been a gaped bum-hole winter for the coast I'm guessing

 

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44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS pretty much caved to the ECMWF with an idea of a trailing wave and a set-up wave that establishes confluence. much more confluence over Nova Scotia on this run 

GFS and ECMWF are actually quite similar now.. the GFS is just more progressive and disjointed, shocker

2125472983_gfs_z500_vort_us_fh120_trend(1).thumb.gif.eb10c2dc879171475e9f57786447f58c.gifgfs-deterministic-namer-z500_dprog-5384800.thumb.png.25805bea51c40e6b72a7730617bf3f94.png

I found this 12z EPS mean a bit of an eye-pop frankly... It's not only abruptly more coherent as a signal, there's spread toward Jersey containing some real bombs compared to where this was the 12 hours prior.   Did anyone mention this ?   sorry - piece of shit work day

eps_lowlocs_us_28.png

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Trailing wave and set up wave for what…Tuesday? Or for the following threat? I’m a little confused on what you’re trying to point out?  

tuesday. the GFS shifted significantly towards the ECMWF's handling of the event. it lets vorticity move out ahead, establishing more confluence. then, it trails energy that tries to amplify into the confluence. this is what the ECMWF does

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