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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think our big doggie looms shortly thereafter, beyond the apex of the blocking...

Yeah I feel like that's what happens.  We get a period of cold which delivers a couple of nickle and dimers and then a big dog.  Perhaps this all goes down in the next 2-3 weeks.  I'd sign on for that and take my chances the rest of winter and I'm sure a lot of people here would do so as well.    

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

As long as it's not curtains of snow coming down at 34F for 15 hours, looks good. 

@ORH_wxmanknows what I mean. Literally all day Sunday I looked up and you could see the curtains of snow up a few hundred feet. You could not see any low clouds, so it was snow for sure. So dam frustrating. hence why Blue Hill was plastered at 630'.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

@ORH_wxmanknows what I mean. Literally all day Sunday I looked up and you could see the curtains of snow up a few hundred feet. You could not see any low clouds, so it was snow for sure. So dam frustrating. hence why Blue Hill was plastered at 630'.

Looks like some legit airmasses around for these threats at least.

Those curtains of snow remind me of right before we went to town in Dec '92 and later on in Oct 2009....you saw the curtains of snow just off the deck and they'd mix in with gusts of wind and then retreat back up a few hundred feet. Usually you flip within an hour or two in that scenario but it's torture if that happens all day.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

@ORH_wxmanknows what I mean. Literally all day Sunday I looked up and you could see the curtains of snow up a few hundred feet. You could not see any low clouds, so it was snow for sure. So dam frustrating. hence why Blue Hill was plastered at 630'.

What a torture chamber....but you can't help but look lol

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

@ORH_wxmanknows what I mean. Literally all day Sunday I looked up and you could see the curtains of snow up a few hundred feet. You could not see any low clouds, so it was snow for sure. So dam frustrating. hence why Blue Hill was plastered at 630'.

image.jpeg.9dd810f881754923e1fdb4d0518609a5.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks fleeting to me.

I did not see the EPS yet but the GEPS was awful at the end of the run, the GEFS you could see the PV was dropping south and within a few days we'd probably be back into a good pattern

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully. I don’t want it be another situation where we flood Canada with warmth which takes a few weeks to rebound. We would be into February by that point 

Difference is that we have an established Aleutian low by that point, which renders that Canadian ridging more spasmodic, as opposed to having the vortex in AK anchoring said ridging in place. 

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59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 1/19 system has a rapidly building western ridge with it....so I would keep an eye out on that one potentially ramping up into something bigger....but I'd agree if we're going for the full I-95 KU kill-shot, then it's probably likely to happen when that PV moves closer to the 50/50 position and we get some sort of PAC firehose southern stream vort trying to slam up into it. I don't know if we'll get that shot, but conceptually that would be more classical than trying to use a PV lobe itself....those tend to be more New England-centric as redevelopers.

Agreed regarding the 19th. If the ridge indeed builds to the modeled amplitude over the West, it’s reasonable to conclude that the downstream response has lots of room to dig deeper and orient into a more favorable position for redevelopment.
 

Based on 12z OP runs, we would need the ridge axis to split the difference between GFS and Euro positioning to open the door to something bigger.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Difference is that we have an established Aleutian low by that point, which renders that Canadian ridging more spasmodic, as opposed to having the vortex in AK anchoring said ridging in place. 

Yeah, added with the JET Ext it was lights out for winter weather in December 

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17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully both events drop snow for the coast next week. Definitely a warm risk after the block breaks downs. The end of the eps today was pretty torchy in Canada 

Does not look torchy at the end to me.....

 

 

659efae27f261.png

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5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m with wolfie on this. Retention is becoming a fraud five here lol. Quebec can barely hold snowpack these days and we’re attaching the subjective quality of our winters on snow retention??? Good luck with that. 

The only time I've ever cared about retention is when we are trying to break the 'surviving snow depth' record.

by that I mean, 30" of stable pack depth.  It's hard to exceed that number - incidentally ... I've come to find over the years ... about 7 or so of them, that when nearing that number we start getting weight settling this, or the errant rainy event there.  Even in the best years that's true.  There are two years that I have seen 36" ... one was 1996 prior to the January thaw, and then there 42" I had near the end of February 2015.  Otherwise 30 seems to be the tough threshold

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The only time I've ever cared about retention is when we are trying to break the 'surviving snow depth' record.

by that I mean, 30" of stable pack depth.  It's hard to exceed that number - incidentally ... I've come to find over the years ... about 7 or so of them, that when nearing that number we start getting weight settling this, or the errant rainy event there.  Even in the best years that's true.  There are two years that I have seen 36" ... one was 1996 prior to the January thaw, and then there 42" I had near the end of February 2015.  Otherwise 30 seems to be the tough threshold

January 2011 is just behind those 2 years for me.

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is going to be a lot flatter for 1/15-16 this run.

I'm behind on this thread but  ... it was actually a better run for us than the last because this keeps it pure snow for everyone. That last one was a deeper more powerful solution granted, but it ends going over the IP bombs during max which for snow geese ...heh

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Canada was leftover PNA warmth. The ridge out west was also rebuilding, with the PV pressing south into nrn Canada. It wasn't a very cold look here, but serviceable and not the Pacific blowtorch we had in December for sure. 

Good snowpack should exist in the source region, if it's AN. 

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