Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS must have a few big ones in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is is...old man winter with the bushy afro and thick late 70s stache....smoking a cigar by the end of the run lol Jerry? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: As long as it's not curtains of snow coming down at 34F for 15 hours, looks good. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There it is...old man winter with the bushy afro and thick late 70s stache....smoking a cigar by the end of the run lol Wait a minute....it snowed in Albuquerque this week. Call it all off. Can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Not terrible for the D10 signal either at this range 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not terrible for the D10 signal either at this range Is rather them be mostly offshore than cutting through Stowe, that’s for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think our big doggie looms shortly thereafter, beyond the apex of the blocking... Yeah I feel like that's what happens. We get a period of cold which delivers a couple of nickle and dimers and then a big dog. Perhaps this all goes down in the next 2-3 weeks. I'd sign on for that and take my chances the rest of winter and I'm sure a lot of people here would do so as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As long as it's not curtains of snow coming down at 34F for 15 hours, looks good. @ORH_wxmanknows what I mean. Literally all day Sunday I looked up and you could see the curtains of snow up a few hundred feet. You could not see any low clouds, so it was snow for sure. So dam frustrating. hence why Blue Hill was plastered at 630'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: @ORH_wxmanknows what I mean. Literally all day Sunday I looked up and you could see the curtains of snow up a few hundred feet. You could not see any low clouds, so it was snow for sure. So dam frustrating. hence why Blue Hill was plastered at 630'. Looks like some legit airmasses around for these threats at least. Those curtains of snow remind me of right before we went to town in Dec '92 and later on in Oct 2009....you saw the curtains of snow just off the deck and they'd mix in with gusts of wind and then retreat back up a few hundred feet. Usually you flip within an hour or two in that scenario but it's torture if that happens all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: @ORH_wxmanknows what I mean. Literally all day Sunday I looked up and you could see the curtains of snow up a few hundred feet. You could not see any low clouds, so it was snow for sure. So dam frustrating. hence why Blue Hill was plastered at 630'. What a torture chamber....but you can't help but look lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: @ORH_wxmanknows what I mean. Literally all day Sunday I looked up and you could see the curtains of snow up a few hundred feet. You could not see any low clouds, so it was snow for sure. So dam frustrating. hence why Blue Hill was plastered at 630'. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 no changes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The irony is that cutter Saturday evolves into the PV lobe that gets things cooking....remember what I said yesterday about cutters... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Hopefully both events drop snow for the coast next week. Definitely a warm risk after the block breaks downs. The end of the eps today was pretty torchy in Canada 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Allsnow said: Hopefully both events drop snow for the coast next week. Definitely a warm risk after the block breaks downs. The end of the eps today was pretty torchy in Canada Looks fleeting to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks fleeting to me. Hopefully. I don’t want it be another situation where we flood Canada with warmth which takes a few weeks to rebound. We would be into February by that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks fleeting to me. I did not see the EPS yet but the GEPS was awful at the end of the run, the GEFS you could see the PV was dropping south and within a few days we'd probably be back into a good pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Hopefully. I don’t want it be another situation where we flood Canada with warmth which takes a few weeks to rebound. We would be into February by that point Difference is that we have an established Aleutian low by that point, which renders that Canadian ridging more spasmodic, as opposed to having the vortex in AK anchoring said ridging in place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I did not see the EPS yet but the GEPS was awful at the end of the run, the GEFS you could see the PV was dropping south and within a few days we'd probably be back into a good pattern Sell the GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 1/19 system has a rapidly building western ridge with it....so I would keep an eye out on that one potentially ramping up into something bigger....but I'd agree if we're going for the full I-95 KU kill-shot, then it's probably likely to happen when that PV moves closer to the 50/50 position and we get some sort of PAC firehose southern stream vort trying to slam up into it. I don't know if we'll get that shot, but conceptually that would be more classical than trying to use a PV lobe itself....those tend to be more New England-centric as redevelopers. Agreed regarding the 19th. If the ridge indeed builds to the modeled amplitude over the West, it’s reasonable to conclude that the downstream response has lots of room to dig deeper and orient into a more favorable position for redevelopment. Based on 12z OP runs, we would need the ridge axis to split the difference between GFS and Euro positioning to open the door to something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Difference is that we have an established Aleutian low by that point, which renders that Canadian ridging more spasmodic, as opposed to having the vortex in AK anchoring said ridging in place. Yeah, added with the JET Ext it was lights out for winter weather in December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, added with the JET Ext it was lights out for winter weather in December Makes perfect sense with warm ENSO climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Hopefully both events drop snow for the coast next week. Definitely a warm risk after the block breaks downs. The end of the eps today was pretty torchy in Canada Does not look torchy at the end to me..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m with wolfie on this. Retention is becoming a fraud five here lol. Quebec can barely hold snowpack these days and we’re attaching the subjective quality of our winters on snow retention??? Good luck with that. The only time I've ever cared about retention is when we are trying to break the 'surviving snow depth' record. by that I mean, 30" of stable pack depth. It's hard to exceed that number - incidentally ... I've come to find over the years ... about 7 or so of them, that when nearing that number we start getting weight settling this, or the errant rainy event there. Even in the best years that's true. There are two years that I have seen 36" ... one was 1996 prior to the January thaw, and then there 42" I had near the end of February 2015. Otherwise 30 seems to be the tough threshold 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: The only time I've ever cared about retention is when we are trying to break the 'surviving snow depth' record. by that I mean, 30" of stable pack depth. It's hard to exceed that number - incidentally ... I've come to find over the years ... about 7 or so of them, that when nearing that number we start getting weight settling this, or the errant rainy event there. Even in the best years that's true. There are two years that I have seen 36" ... one was 1996 prior to the January thaw, and then there 42" I had near the end of February 2015. Otherwise 30 seems to be the tough threshold January 2011 is just behind those 2 years for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Does not look torchy at the end to me..... 2m surface temps are pretty torchy. But if we can pop that PNA it would probably cool off quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is going to be a lot flatter for 1/15-16 this run. I'm behind on this thread but ... it was actually a better run for us than the last because this keeps it pure snow for everyone. That last one was a deeper more powerful solution granted, but it ends going over the IP bombs during max which for snow geese ...heh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Canada was leftover PNA warmth. The ridge out west was also rebuilding, with the PV pressing south into nrn Canada. It wasn't a very cold look here, but serviceable and not the Pacific blowtorch we had in December for sure. Good snowpack should exist in the source region, if it's AN. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Does not look torchy at the end to me..... That's actually fairly mild 850s, if you check anomalies they'll be +5 ish maybe a bit higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Srfc anomalies verbatim did not get AN until hr 360 lol. And by then it was only a few F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now