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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro and GFS don't have a CCB feature, but look like one of those deals where you probably have a ribbon of good fronto delivering the goods. One of those linear type bands that run SW-NE. 

Yeah that's all fronto stuff....it's pretty strong though, so it squeezes out warning criteria in that band on both models. I think if we are able to sort of curl that vort in underneath it at the last second then we could get a psuedo-CCB feature to enhance the fronto stuff. Right now, the vort is a bit sheared, but if it stays a bit more consolidated, then it can have a little higher potential....however, we walk the happy medium....you don't want it too strong too early or you get some track issues.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro and GFS don't have a CCB feature, but look like one of those deals where you probably have a ribbon of good fronto delivering the goods. One of those linear type bands that run SW-NE. 

Good. Those are perfect for coastal areas. Keeps the warm tongues over the ocean. 

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18 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Lots of snow in 95-96, its 138.8" was tops of my 13 winters in Gardiner by 30".  That trails only 2007-08 since moving from Fort Kent in 1985.  However, the major thaws, especially in January, tempered my enthusiasm. 
Five top SDDs for Gardiner winters:

1993-94   1,993
1986-87   1,879
1989-90   1,641
1992-93   1,352
1995-96   1,290

what a great winter that was on great pond. except for the big screamer that yr.

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38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most folks know how much of a snow OTG pack hound I am. Typically it bothers me immensely and I have trouble dealing with losing snow. But this one didn’t really bother me at all. I think it was having a snowless first half of winter and also going into it already knowing and conceding that we had 2 quick screamers coming right in to take it all away in the blink of an eye. This one was simply a stat padder. Very much like Morch storms . Here today , gone tomorrow .

Probably the most reasonable posts that I have ever seen you make.

Copy-paste and frame it. lol

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the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here:

  • decaying WB -NAO
  • Arctic antecedent airmass
  • 50/50 ULL
  • transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP
  • amplifying vort upstream

this period has been showing up on ensembles and now OP runs are beginning to sniff it out. large storms often follow decaying WB -NAOs, so this is definitely a period of high interest

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5622400.thumb.png.f53b4b5582e4951f69bdcd257b71f056.png

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think our big doggie looms shortly thereafter, beyond the apex of the blocking...

The 1/19 system has a rapidly building western ridge with it....so I would keep an eye out on that one potentially ramping up into something bigger....but I'd agree if we're going for the full I-95 KU kill-shot, then it's probably likely to happen when that PV moves closer to the 50/50 position and we get some sort of PAC firehose southern stream vort trying to slam up into it. I don't know if we'll get that shot, but conceptually that would be more classical than trying to use a PV lobe itself....those tend to be more New England-centric as redevelopers.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 1/19 system has a rapidly building western ridge with it....so I would keep an eye out on that one potentially ramping up into something bigger....but I'd agree if we're going for the full I-95 KU kill-shot, then it's probably likely to happen when that PV moves closer to the 50/50 position and we get some sort of PAC firehose southern stream vort trying to slam up into it. I don't know if we'll get that shot, but conceptually that would be more classical than trying to use a PV lobe itself....those tend to be more New England-centric as redevelopers.

I could live that- 

Twist my arm.....I dare you...

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here:

  • decaying WB -NAO
  • Arctic antecedent airmass
  • 50/50 ULL
  • transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP
  • amplifying vort upstream

this period has been showing up on ensembles and now OP runs are beginning to sniff it out. large storms often follow decaying WB -NAOs, so this is definitely a period of high interest

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5622400.thumb.png.f53b4b5582e4951f69bdcd257b71f056.png

Only thing missing is you putting it all into motion for us, like a raunchy late 1970's weather porno....

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice euro op. Now make it so. 

Really nice run for the SE peeps who need to play a little catchup. But everyone gets something this run and plenty of arctic cold.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Only thing missing is you putting it all into motion for us, like a raunchy late 1970's weather porno....

since you asked. it's honestly uncanny how similar the OP is to some huge storms of the past. love the evolution

now, just want to keep the signal on ENS

1557839816_NYC18preloading.gif.924c8ba3adb786a4d3170552ee41d9f0.gif

ezgif-7-072b60b0bf.thumb.gif.4293b1fc4ada1a2f31640cd85c5880ee.gif

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9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

since you asked. it's honestly uncanny how similar the OP is to some huge storms of the past. love the evolution

now, just want to keep the signal on ENS

1557839816_NYC18preloading.gif.924c8ba3adb786a4d3170552ee41d9f0.gif

ezgif-7-072b60b0bf.thumb.gif.4293b1fc4ada1a2f31640cd85c5880ee.gif

There it is...old man winter with the bushy afro and thick late 70s stache....smoking a cigar by the end of the run lol

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is is...old man winter with the bushy afro and thick late 70s stache....smoking a cigar by the end of the run lol

i don't like using those composites at this range, but i saw how similar it was and just had to mention it

seriously though, the synoptics are ripe for a big one around that time, just gotta put it together

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