ORH_wxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro and GFS don't have a CCB feature, but look like one of those deals where you probably have a ribbon of good fronto delivering the goods. One of those linear type bands that run SW-NE. Yeah that's all fronto stuff....it's pretty strong though, so it squeezes out warning criteria in that band on both models. I think if we are able to sort of curl that vort in underneath it at the last second then we could get a psuedo-CCB feature to enhance the fronto stuff. Right now, the vort is a bit sheared, but if it stays a bit more consolidated, then it can have a little higher potential....however, we walk the happy medium....you don't want it too strong too early or you get some track issues. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Solid storm for most on this forum, but it will change a bunch more as this is a day 5.5 to day 6 storm depending on guidance.. Euro still bombs out on that run down to 985mb 200 miles east of the cape.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro and GFS don't have a CCB feature, but look like one of those deals where you probably have a ribbon of good fronto delivering the goods. One of those linear type bands that run SW-NE. Good. Those are perfect for coastal areas. Keeps the warm tongues over the ocean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18 minutes ago, tamarack said: Lots of snow in 95-96, its 138.8" was tops of my 13 winters in Gardiner by 30". That trails only 2007-08 since moving from Fort Kent in 1985. However, the major thaws, especially in January, tempered my enthusiasm. Five top SDDs for Gardiner winters: 1993-94 1,993 1986-87 1,879 1989-90 1,641 1992-93 1,352 1995-96 1,290 what a great winter that was on great pond. except for the big screamer that yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Most folks know how much of a snow OTG pack hound I am. Typically it bothers me immensely and I have trouble dealing with losing snow. But this one didn’t really bother me at all. I think it was having a snowless first half of winter and also going into it already knowing and conceding that we had 2 quick screamers coming right in to take it all away in the blink of an eye. This one was simply a stat padder. Very much like Morch storms . Here today , gone tomorrow . Probably the most reasonable posts that I have ever seen you make. Copy-paste and frame it. lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Probably the most reasonable posts that I have ever seen you make. Copy-paste and frame it. lol I’d say 96% of my posts are very reasonable 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Love seeing the signal for the 19-20th continue as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Probably the most reasonable posts that I have ever seen you make. Copy-paste and frame it. lol Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’d say 96% of my posts are very reasonable That was a quick relapse. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Pattern of yore on the Euro today....moderate coastal followed by arctic cold, then a clipper-esque system into that arctic airmass for 1/19 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That was a quick relapse. That worked perfectly lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Pattern of yore on the Euro today....moderate coastal followed by arctic cold, then a clipper-esque system into that arctic airmass for 1/19 I think our big doggie looms shortly thereafter, beyond the apex of the blocking... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The period to watch is as that PV is lifting out, leading into the mild break....other than that, we look to Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Euro has a nice nao/pna connection at d9+. Haven’t seen that in a love you long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here: decaying WB -NAO Arctic antecedent airmass 50/50 ULL transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP amplifying vort upstream this period has been showing up on ensembles and now OP runs are beginning to sniff it out. large storms often follow decaying WB -NAOs, so this is definitely a period of high interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think our big doggie looms shortly thereafter, beyond the apex of the blocking... The 1/19 system has a rapidly building western ridge with it....so I would keep an eye out on that one potentially ramping up into something bigger....but I'd agree if we're going for the full I-95 KU kill-shot, then it's probably likely to happen when that PV moves closer to the 50/50 position and we get some sort of PAC firehose southern stream vort trying to slam up into it. I don't know if we'll get that shot, but conceptually that would be more classical than trying to use a PV lobe itself....those tend to be more New England-centric as redevelopers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I don't think that mild break will be long-lived, as the PNA is building with another PV lobe replacing the old one in N Quebec. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 1/19 system has a rapidly building western ridge with it....so I would keep an eye out on that one potentially ramping up into something bigger....but I'd agree if we're going for the full I-95 KU kill-shot, then it's probably likely to happen when that PV moves closer to the 50/50 position and we get some sort of PAC firehose southern stream vort trying to slam up into it. I don't know if we'll get that shot, but conceptually that would be more classical than trying to use a PV lobe itself....those tend to be more New England-centric as redevelopers. I could live that- Twist my arm.....I dare you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Nice euro op. Now make it so. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here: decaying WB -NAO Arctic antecedent airmass 50/50 ULL transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP amplifying vort upstream this period has been showing up on ensembles and now OP runs are beginning to sniff it out. large storms often follow decaying WB -NAOs, so this is definitely a period of high interest Only thing missing is you putting it all into motion for us, like a raunchy late 1970's weather porno.... 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Nice euro op. Now make it so. Really nice run for the SE peeps who need to play a little catchup. But everyone gets something this run and plenty of arctic cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Ray wanted his OP runs to start looking good today…well they did. We take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Really nice run for the SE peeps who need to play a little catchup. But everyone gets something this run and plenty of arctic cold. EPS must have a few big ones in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS must have a few big ones in there. Tell me all of your dirty little secrets in about 30 minutes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Ok looking at 12z I’m back in. Nice break after the weekend storm and rainy storm last night and upcoming ONE more rainer in the series. 1/16 looks to me like a nice prelude to a biggie 1/20 ish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tell me all of your dirty little secrets in about 30 minutes.... If I'm skunked by 1/31, I'll be your next patient. Will tell you plenty then. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Only thing missing is you putting it all into motion for us, like a raunchy late 1970's weather porno.... since you asked. it's honestly uncanny how similar the OP is to some huge storms of the past. love the evolution now, just want to keep the signal on ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, CoastalWx said: If I'm skunked by 1/31, I'll be your next patient. Will tell you plenty then. I'll have that reenactment doll all ready for you to show me what old man winter did to you and where he touched you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: since you asked. it's honestly uncanny how similar the OP is to some huge storms of the past. love the evolution now, just want to keep the signal on ENS There it is...old man winter with the bushy afro and thick late 70s stache....smoking a cigar by the end of the run lol 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is is...old man winter with the bushy afro and thick late 70s stache....smoking a cigar by the end of the run lol i don't like using those composites at this range, but i saw how similar it was and just had to mention it seriously though, the synoptics are ripe for a big one around that time, just gotta put it together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Candy Man came through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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