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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is kind of what I was getting at last night....the runs are consistently sucking. I can beat off to H5 animations for only so long...I'd like to see some favorable deterministic solutions mixed in.

 mreeves telling people to whack off to snow maps, you jerking it to short movies. this place always good for a laugh 

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The ensemble signal is pretty paltry...I'm wondering if we don't eventually kick that entire cyclogenic can a bit closer to the ~20th.

yeah, it'd be more like which signal is successful - which is probably all that matters for this engagement ... - as opposed to which exists.

they both do.  i'm just taking them one at a time.

this period has a lot of facets to overcome, despite the telecon beacon.  the "Miami rule" being one of them.  the fact that the SPV is excessively too deep over eastern Canada - possibly owing to a suppressive variant of the -NAO ( or it may be a chicken vs egg deal between the two). 

western heights are an interesting conundrum.  there's a tussle going on between the EPO handling and the lower latitude PNA.  typically the former precedes the latter ( natural progression of those mass fields) in lag correlation.  but what's happening here is the -EPO is popping off in 2 to 3 day impulses.  it's sending a negative height signal down the spine of the Rockies ... meanwhile all that is happening, the PNA is in +d(PNA).   those are competing forces - not personally sure how that gets resolved but it's probably at minimum a negative interference - which could also be an entirely false scenario if the models are just not handling the EPO domain very well.   gee, when has that ever happened. 

 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, it'd be more like which signal is successful - which is probably all that matters for this engagement ... - as opposed to which exists.

they both do.  i'm just taking them one at a time.

this period has a lot of facets to overcome, despite the telecon beacon.  the "Miami rule" being one of them.  the fact that the SPV is excessively too deep over eastern Canada - possibly owing to a suppressive variant of the -NAO ( or it may be a chicken vs egg deal between the two). 

western heights are an interesting conundrum.  there's a tussle going on between the EPO handling and the lower latitude PNA.  typically the former precedes the latter ( natural progression of those mass fields) in lag correlation.  but what's happening here is the -EPO is popping off in 2 to 3 day impulses.  it's sending a negative height signal down the spine of the Rockies ... meanwhile all that is happening, the PNA is in +d(PNA).   those are competing forces - not personally sure how that gets resolved but it's probably at minimum a negative interference - which could also be an entirely false scenario if the models are just not handling the EPO domain very well.   gee, when has that ever happened. 

 

That shearing proclivity could help us for once.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is fairly weak. Hopefully it can trend to a coastal. 

It seems like the only options showed by models so far is weak mess offshore or wound up bomb that cuts through New England, where longitude is key. Hope a 3rd option starts to show. 

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Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

It seems like the only options showed by models so far is weak mess offshore or wound up bomb that cuts through New England, where longitude is key. Hope a 3rd option starts to show. 

That isn't true....plenty of appreciable lows offshore in the ensemble spread. The mean just gives that impression.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still have a good pack...but the cutter this weekend probably wipes me.

This weekend doesn't really warm sector much...esp up there....you might get like a 6 hour warm sector and then we go much colder airmass. You may keep pack up there. We still have it here but I think we lose most of the rest of it today.

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There's prob two windows in the next 10-12 days for good snow....first is 1/15-16 and the next is prob around 1/20-21.....then it looks like we relax the pattern a bit but I don't think that lasts long...we are already building up an aleutian low and western ridge by about 1/25....so it wouldn't surprise me if we're right back into the storm threats before the month closes out.

But as mentioned earlier, if we're trying to get a solidly AN snow season, I think you really want to hit on one of the threats prior to 1/25. We cna obviously have a big February or last few days of January by extension, but you can't really afford to miss many threats at that point if you haven't already banked some.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's prob two windows in the next 10-12 days for good snow....first is 1/15-16 and the next is prob around 1/20-21.....then it looks like we relax the pattern a bit but I don't think that lasts long...we are already building up an aleutian low and western ridge by about 1/25....so it wouldn't surprise me if we're right back into the storm threats before the month closes out.

But as mentioned earlier, if we're trying to get a solidly AN snow season, I think you really want to hit on one of the threats prior to 1/25. We cna obviously have a big February or last few days of January by extension, but you can't really afford to miss many threats at that point if you haven't already banked some.

19-20th is a nice set up .. And EURO op already showing a storm is a good sign .. Feels like it's one of those signals along with the 9th, 12th, and 16th that will be a long lead signal.. 

 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's prob two windows in the next 10-12 days for good snow....first is 1/15-16 and the next is prob around 1/20-21.....then it looks like we relax the pattern a bit but I don't think that lasts long...we are already building up an aleutian low and western ridge by about 1/25....so it wouldn't surprise me if we're right back into the storm threats before the month closes out.

But as mentioned earlier, if we're trying to get a solidly AN snow season, I think you really want to hit on one of the threats prior to 1/25. We cna obviously have a big February or last few days of January by extension, but you can't really afford to miss many threats at that point if you haven't already banked some.

AN would be fantastic, but down here I am just hoping to beat last year's pathetic 12.1".....Next will be more inches of snow than inches of rain? The past 2 years really does remind me of what it was like living in the Mid Atlantic before their climate went all South Carolina-like. Hopefully we get a good snowy stretch late January/February and then clear it out and actually have a decent Spring this year.

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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

AN would be fantastic, but down here I am just hoping to beat last year's pathetic 12.1".....Next will be more inches of snow than inches of rain? The past 2 years really does remind me of what it was like living in the Mid Atlantic before their climate went all South Carolina-like. Hopefully we get a good snowy stretch late January/February and then clear it out and actually have a decent Spring this year.

WinterWolf is on the prowl…

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13 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I just went out and cleared my driveway.  I'll probably end up with a skating rink.

I'm waiting until the rain departs and some of the water drains out of the mess.  We had 9"+ by 5 AM when the precip switch was occurring, then ~0.4" RA by 7, for a total of 1.74".  Classic heart attack stuff - instead of a shovel load weighing under 10 lb, this stuff is about 20.  I figured that I tossed over 300 lb just clearing the 8 steps.  Our relatively small driveway, perhaps 1,200 sq.ft., holds about 5 tons.  ugh!

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's prob two windows in the next 10-12 days for good snow....first is 1/15-16 and the next is prob around 1/20-21.....then it looks like we relax the pattern a bit but I don't think that lasts long...we are already building up an aleutian low and western ridge by about 1/25....so it wouldn't surprise me if we're right back into the storm threats before the month closes out.

But as mentioned earlier, if we're trying to get a solidly AN snow season, I think you really want to hit on one of the threats prior to 1/25. We cna obviously have a big February or last few days of January by extension, but you can't really afford to miss many threats at that point if you haven't already banked some.

I agree....that is the gist of my posts last night and this AM.

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15 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

AN would be fantastic, but down here I am just hoping to beat last year's pathetic 12.1".....Next will be more inches of snow than inches of rain? The past 2 years really does remind me of what it was like living in the Mid Atlantic before their climate went all South Carolina-like. Hopefully we get a good snowy stretch late January/February and then clear it out and actually have a decent Spring this year.

Welcome to SNE 1980style.  But you will beat last years 12”.  I said this in October..we’ll both beat the 12” from last year.  You can bank on that.  I’m at 7.5” on the season..just need 5” more to beat last year.  Low bar obviously, but we’re in for an average year imo. And nothing wrong with that. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Welcome to SNE 1980style.  But you will beat last years 12”.  I said this in October..we’ll both beat the 12” from last year.  You can bank on that.  I’m at 7.5” on the season..just need 5” more to beat last year.  Low bar obviously, but we’re in for an average year imo. And nothing wrong with that. 

Except it's not nearly as cold this go around. 

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