Lava Rock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is kind of what I was getting at last night....the runs are consistently sucking. I can beat off to H5 animations for only so long...I'd like to see some favorable deterministic solutions mixed in. mreeves telling people to whack off to snow maps, you jerking it to short movies. this place always good for a laugh 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: mreeves telling people to whack off to snow maps, you jerking it to short movies. this place always good for a laugh That was priceless how @toller65innocently and organically made that typo ...then Eric swooped in for the kill. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Does anyone else miss the days of when the Montreal Express roared in after a storm???? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 EPS is fairly weak. Hopefully it can trend to a coastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Does anyone else miss the days of when the Montreal Express roared in after a storm???? yes, but somewhat happy no big temp drop today otherwise these wagon wheels would freeze up solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The ensemble signal is pretty paltry...I'm wondering if we don't eventually kick that entire cyclogenic can a bit closer to the ~20th. yeah, it'd be more like which signal is successful - which is probably all that matters for this engagement ... - as opposed to which exists. they both do. i'm just taking them one at a time. this period has a lot of facets to overcome, despite the telecon beacon. the "Miami rule" being one of them. the fact that the SPV is excessively too deep over eastern Canada - possibly owing to a suppressive variant of the -NAO ( or it may be a chicken vs egg deal between the two). western heights are an interesting conundrum. there's a tussle going on between the EPO handling and the lower latitude PNA. typically the former precedes the latter ( natural progression of those mass fields) in lag correlation. but what's happening here is the -EPO is popping off in 2 to 3 day impulses. it's sending a negative height signal down the spine of the Rockies ... meanwhile all that is happening, the PNA is in +d(PNA). those are competing forces - not personally sure how that gets resolved but it's probably at minimum a negative interference - which could also be an entirely false scenario if the models are just not handling the EPO domain very well. gee, when has that ever happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah, it'd be more like which signal is successful - which is probably all that matters for this engagement ... - as opposed to which exists. they both do. i'm just taking them one at a time. this period has a lot of facets to overcome, despite the telecon beacon. the "Miami rule" being one of them. the fact that the SPV is excessively too deep over eastern Canada - possibly owing to a suppressive variant of the -NAO ( or it may be a chicken vs egg deal between the two). western heights are an interesting conundrum. there's a tussle going on between the EPO handling and the lower latitude PNA. typically the former precedes the latter ( natural progression of those mass fields) in lag correlation. but what's happening here is the -EPO is popping off in 2 to 3 day impulses. it's sending a negative height signal down the spine of the Rockies ... meanwhile all that is happening, the PNA is in +d(PNA). those are competing forces - not personally sure how that gets resolved but it's probably at minimum a negative interference - which could also be an entirely false scenario if the models are just not handling the EPO domain very well. gee, when has that ever happened. That shearing proclivity could help us for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: yes, but somewhat happy no big temp drop today otherwise these wagon wheels would freeze up solid I still have a good pack...but the cutter this weekend probably wipes me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is fairly weak. Hopefully it can trend to a coastal. It seems like the only options showed by models so far is weak mess offshore or wound up bomb that cuts through New England, where longitude is key. Hope a 3rd option starts to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Lava Rock said: yes, but somewhat happy no big temp drop today otherwise these wagon wheels would freeze up solid You need to update your snow removal equipment... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: It seems like the only options showed by models so far is weak mess offshore or wound up bomb that cuts through New England, where longitude is key. Hope a 3rd option starts to show. That isn't true....plenty of appreciable lows offshore in the ensemble spread. The mean just gives that impression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still have a good pack...but the cutter this weekend probably wipes me. This weekend doesn't really warm sector much...esp up there....you might get like a 6 hour warm sector and then we go much colder airmass. You may keep pack up there. We still have it here but I think we lose most of the rest of it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Not much of a snowpack left in my neighborhood in Methuen....will be back to bare ground by Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This weekend doesn't really warm sector much....you might get like a 6 hour warm sector and then we go much colder airmass. You may keep pack up there. We still have it here but I think we lose most of the rest of it today. Eyeballing, I have at least 6" left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: yes, but somewhat happy no big temp drop today otherwise these wagon wheels would freeze up solid I just went out and cleared my driveway. I'll probably end up with a skating rink. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 FWIW 6z EPS and control both trended even more progressive for the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 There's prob two windows in the next 10-12 days for good snow....first is 1/15-16 and the next is prob around 1/20-21.....then it looks like we relax the pattern a bit but I don't think that lasts long...we are already building up an aleutian low and western ridge by about 1/25....so it wouldn't surprise me if we're right back into the storm threats before the month closes out. But as mentioned earlier, if we're trying to get a solidly AN snow season, I think you really want to hit on one of the threats prior to 1/25. We cna obviously have a big February or last few days of January by extension, but you can't really afford to miss many threats at that point if you haven't already banked some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's prob two windows in the next 10-12 days for good snow....first is 1/15-16 and the next is prob around 1/20-21.....then it looks like we relax the pattern a bit but I don't think that lasts long...we are already building up an aleutian low and western ridge by about 1/25....so it wouldn't surprise me if we're right back into the storm threats before the month closes out. But as mentioned earlier, if we're trying to get a solidly AN snow season, I think you really want to hit on one of the threats prior to 1/25. We cna obviously have a big February or last few days of January by extension, but you can't really afford to miss many threats at that point if you haven't already banked some. 19-20th is a nice set up .. And EURO op already showing a storm is a good sign .. Feels like it's one of those signals along with the 9th, 12th, and 16th that will be a long lead signal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's prob two windows in the next 10-12 days for good snow....first is 1/15-16 and the next is prob around 1/20-21.....then it looks like we relax the pattern a bit but I don't think that lasts long...we are already building up an aleutian low and western ridge by about 1/25....so it wouldn't surprise me if we're right back into the storm threats before the month closes out. But as mentioned earlier, if we're trying to get a solidly AN snow season, I think you really want to hit on one of the threats prior to 1/25. We cna obviously have a big February or last few days of January by extension, but you can't really afford to miss many threats at that point if you haven't already banked some. AN would be fantastic, but down here I am just hoping to beat last year's pathetic 12.1".....Next will be more inches of snow than inches of rain? The past 2 years really does remind me of what it was like living in the Mid Atlantic before their climate went all South Carolina-like. Hopefully we get a good snowy stretch late January/February and then clear it out and actually have a decent Spring this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: AN would be fantastic, but down here I am just hoping to beat last year's pathetic 12.1".....Next will be more inches of snow than inches of rain? The past 2 years really does remind me of what it was like living in the Mid Atlantic before their climate went all South Carolina-like. Hopefully we get a good snowy stretch late January/February and then clear it out and actually have a decent Spring this year. WinterWolf is on the prowl… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 13 minutes ago, mreaves said: I just went out and cleared my driveway. I'll probably end up with a skating rink. I'm waiting until the rain departs and some of the water drains out of the mess. We had 9"+ by 5 AM when the precip switch was occurring, then ~0.4" RA by 7, for a total of 1.74". Classic heart attack stuff - instead of a shovel load weighing under 10 lb, this stuff is about 20. I figured that I tossed over 300 lb just clearing the 8 steps. Our relatively small driveway, perhaps 1,200 sq.ft., holds about 5 tons. ugh! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 FFS models are like 2-3.5"+ Saturday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's prob two windows in the next 10-12 days for good snow....first is 1/15-16 and the next is prob around 1/20-21.....then it looks like we relax the pattern a bit but I don't think that lasts long...we are already building up an aleutian low and western ridge by about 1/25....so it wouldn't surprise me if we're right back into the storm threats before the month closes out. But as mentioned earlier, if we're trying to get a solidly AN snow season, I think you really want to hit on one of the threats prior to 1/25. We cna obviously have a big February or last few days of January by extension, but you can't really afford to miss many threats at that point if you haven't already banked some. I agree....that is the gist of my posts last night and this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree....that is the gist of my posts last night and this AM. Need the Edelman SB catch next week to make a come back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, CoastalWx said: Need the Edelman SB catch next week to make a come back. Getting to be the time of year where the scoreboard replaces the Outlook outline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 15 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: AN would be fantastic, but down here I am just hoping to beat last year's pathetic 12.1".....Next will be more inches of snow than inches of rain? The past 2 years really does remind me of what it was like living in the Mid Atlantic before their climate went all South Carolina-like. Hopefully we get a good snowy stretch late January/February and then clear it out and actually have a decent Spring this year. Welcome to SNE 1980style. But you will beat last years 12”. I said this in October..we’ll both beat the 12” from last year. You can bank on that. I’m at 7.5” on the season..just need 5” more to beat last year. Low bar obviously, but we’re in for an average year imo. And nothing wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Getting to be the time of year where the scoreboard replaces the Outlook outline. For my sanity and for the safety of my family, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, CoastalWx said: For my sanity and for the safety of my family, I hope. I can punt December and still sleep with the Outlook under my pillow, but January would be a problem...speaking for the coast, as obviously I did okay IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Welcome to SNE 1980style. But you will beat last years 12”. I said this in October..we’ll both beat the 12” from last year. You can bank on that. I’m at 7.5” on the season..just need 5” more to beat last year. Low bar obviously, but we’re in for an average year imo. And nothing wrong with that. Except it's not nearly as cold this go around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, NoCORH4L said: Except it's not nearly as cold this go around. I’m glad it’s not..cuz it was useless cold..nobody needs that garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now