MJO812 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs going that way too. Epicosity. Not the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 We need some eye candy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs going that way too. Epicosity. still think that the 19-20th is the best crack at something bigger. everything is there synoptically, you just need a strong impulse, which remains to be seen. but you have the decaying block, Rockies ridge, confluence, and amplifying OH Valley trough. hopefully modeling picks up on it a bit more in the coming days, but EPS and GEPS are sniffing it out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 This is kind of what I was getting at last night....the runs are consistently sucking. I can beat off to H5 animations for only so long...I'd like to see some favorable deterministic solutions mixed in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is kind of what I was getting at last night....the runs are consistently sucking. Hopefully models start showing better later today, no more rain in January its 50F at my shop, maybe we can sneak two events next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 In all seriousness.. That's a beast by the EURO and it seems locked in on a BEAST for the day 5.5-6.5 range.. Other guidance seems to be coming along to the idea.. We need to shift the whole trough 100 miles east or so.. Doable at this range .. Just a fascinating 500mb evolution on the EURO consistetly showing up.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: In all seriousness.. That's a beast by the EURO and it seems locked in on a BEAST for the day 5.5-6.5 range.. Other guidance seems to be coming along to the idea.. We need to shift the whole trough 100 miles east or so.. Doable at this range .. Just a fascinating 500mb evolution on the EURO consistetly showing up.. Fascinating in the isn't the adjective that I'd use, but... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 This is going to be a very sizable snowstorm for most of the region , even to the coast Monday night/ Tuesday. Signals are all there on ops and ensembles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fascinating in the isn't the adjective that I'd use, but... Verbatim there are many adjectives that aren't allowed on this board that I'd use if that verified .. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 At almost a week out it will change and morph…into what we don’t know, but it will. The last one morphed and had a trailing S/W catching up and capturing it..that wasn’t there until a couple days before. Who knows what happens with this monster..but at least it’s there showing up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Anyone have an image of the EURO? My free maps are garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Back to back prolific Rainers in the heart of January. This winter is becoming increasingly tedious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Not the ensembles Pattern favors high amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Back to back prolific Rainers in the heart of January. This winter is becoming increasingly tedious. Stay the course Brett. NNE cashing in now…that’s a great thing for both of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Anyone have an image of the EURO? My free maps are garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, CoastalWx said: Pattern favors high amplitude. I’d rather take my chances with that, than a zonal POS pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: That ain’t happening lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 We can hope for the euro and 60kt gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: At almost a week out it will change and morph…into what we don’t know, but it will. The last one morphed and had a trailing S/W catching up and capturing it..that wasn’t there until a couple days before. Who knows what happens with this monster..but at least it’s there showing up. Yea, all I mean is that I would like to see a few runs mixed in that nail the coast....not that I would spike the football over it in a deterministic sense, but if we keep seeing these runs locked in on the shit scenario, at some point confidence increases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’d rather take my chances with that, than a zonal POS pattern. TBH, after last weekend, I would have taken a cold and tranquil stretch....easier hedge for you down there, but pack almost wiped and still seeing cutters lined up in the chamber is irritating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 It goes beyond IMBY yard, too....I would like to start stacking numbers on the coast for verification purposes. The next 2-3 weeks are put up or shut up. Its possible to make it all up in February, but I don't want to rely on a Pats' comeback against the Falcons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Noyes has a snowstorm to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The demon is over the Tsongas arena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The demons is over the Tsongas arena. Looking forward to snow reports from Powderfreak’s parents in Albany. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looking forward to snow reports from Powderfreak’s parents in Albany. Nah, I'm partial to the upslope on the backside of it....he and is folks just running the ob train on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 EPS is just outside the BM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The demon is over the Tsongas arena. the issue with that isn't really an issue - thank goodness ... - because we're still talking about 7 days. but admittedly, it's not a good optic. it's a problem that the 17th has had in all these Euro solutions that are trying to push for that event - interesting consistency there when even its own ensemble mean refuses to emerge a better signal for that time and space. anyway, there isn't enough +SPP situated NW of New England. There is in fact on the 00z probably a modest -SPP there ( "SPP" meaning surface pressure pattern). the 500 mb evolution is structured sufficiently for any fast moving Miller A or Miller A/B hybrid to move E of Boston, but the surface synoptics being what they are is causing the evolution to jump over and favor the left exit/entrance regions of the jet mechanics aloft. the sfc pressure layout aspects et al can change in 7 days, so we'll see there. even a modest amount of PP correction may make the difference between a low cutting just enough to ruin the party, or keeping it east... but, the ens ? heh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: the issue with that isn't really an issue - thank goodness ... - because we're still talking about 7 days. but admittedly, it's not a good optic. it's a problem that the 17th has had in all these Euro solutions that are trying to push for that event - interesting consistency there when even its own ensemble mean refuses to emerge a better signal for that time and space. anyway, there's not +SPP situated NW of New England. There is in act on the 00z probably a modest -SPP there ( "SPP" meaing surface pressure pattern). the 500 mb evolution is structured sufficiently for any fast moving Miller A or Miller A/B hybrid to move E of Boston, but the surface synoptics being what they are is causing the evolution to jump over and favor the left exit/entrance regions of the jet mechanics aloft. the sfc pressure layout aspects et al can change in 7 days, so we'll see there. even a modest amount of PP correction may make the difference between a low cutting just enough to ruin the party, or keeping it east... but, the ens ? heh The ensemble signal is pretty paltry...I'm wondering if we don't eventually kick that entire cyclogenic can a bit closer to the ~20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Yeah the EPS is kind of strung out and southeast of the OP....it's not showing a lot of inland bombs. Maybe just a few out of 50 members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the EPS is kind of strung out and southeast of the OP....it's not showing a lot of inland bombs. Maybe just a few out of 50 members. I bet that signal fades....which maybe for the best AFAIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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