dryslot Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets all buy a weenie compound in Randolph NH. Walk over the Phin's and crash his hot tub. Drink on the rail, And smoking a cigar out on the deck too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Saturday looks like a carbon copy of tonight and tomorrow on the 12z GFS, Disaster written all over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a good approach for the time frame in question - not intending to condescend but keep it from orbit for now... I've also been discussing the 15th+ period as a time that fits the canonical teleconnector correlation/distribution, for cold eastern storm genesis over the eastern continent. These Lakes cutters in the foreground ... they may or may not be influenced by a steadily increasing -NAO exertion over time, but likely not in time to save the winter enthusiasts from a frustrating tour de fault in that regard. Really very impressed by the immense power suggestive by mere 2.5 day-long cycle between very deep and large winter cyclones through the Lakes. Typically a 975 mb humdinger leads an interval of quiescence - not happening is intriguing. An amazing hemisphere really... You know, it's not impossible that someone between Chi town and Indy would receive upwards of 30" between the two events or more, a significant percentage of their seasonal cryo quota spanning 5 days. But it doesn't end there... the third in the series - at least in so far as the Euro - is apparently responding to the forcing of said telecon projections in then running up/or off the EC with another very deep solution. ...All these solutions ...there, here ...everywhere, are subjective to model attenuation-correction tendencies. But ... sufficed it is to say, when they are all sub 980 and even sub 970 mb, they can shed the 20% and still be charming. Anyway, long of the short - I'd be watching the 16-17th (still). It's really not that far away. We've started threads for early monitoring over less impressive signals. It may just be a matter of time before something significant through the 20th (even) comes over the ens horizon - if the 17th fails. One trend I didn't love there was to slow the retrograde of the NAO block a bit...perhaps a nod to closer to the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Drink on the rail, And smoking a cigar out on the deck too. I'll be sitting there like Tony Soprono. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Saturday looks like a carbon copy of tonight and tomorrow on the 12z GFS, Disaster written all over it. Yup . Maybe a tick tock stronger 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 12/31/2023 at 2:36 PM, dendrite said: Ray getting close to spiking This worked out better for me than it did for him. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 15 hours ago, qg_omega said: Welcome to MJO 4 past the 20th Average temp here on Jan 23 is 14°, so a few degrees AN doesn't preclude snow. Last January was 9° AN, easily the mildest of 25 Januarys here, and we only had 29.9" of white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1/16 actually does look pretty interesting on most guidance. Inhibiting factor right now is lead time but Euro obviously has it, GFS was kind of a close graze at 12z and GGEM was a hit at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not even Chernobyl would kill the ticks. Well, it'll knock them back a bit at least. Last few seasons have been horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Don't hate the GFS look moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Don't hate the GFS look moving forward. 1/19-1/20 might have high ceiling potential 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 1/19-1/20 might have high ceiling potential Coming from you, get the duck boats ready. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The southern tail on this is packing a punch. Severe Warnings are being issued all around down here. Gusts in the 40mph. range with temps in the 80's. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Is it possible for @Allsnow to weenie emoji his own comment? 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don't hate the GFS look moving forward. It’s a month of nukes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Coming from you, get the duck boats ready. I always liked next week with mjo response in p3. It wil improve the pna while The trough moves east. The added bonus is the block 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don't hate the GFS look moving forward. Remember that post I made last week....get ready, dude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is it possible for @Allsnow to weenie emoji his own comment? It’d be nice..he weenies everybody else’s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s a month of nukes. If ya Have enough swings…ya gotta hit something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: If ya Have enough swings…and ya gotta hit something. I love the look going forward. Always have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I love the look going forward. Always have. Sounds very good…let’s do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 1/16 actually does look pretty interesting on most guidance. Inhibiting factor right now is lead time but Euro obviously has it, GFS was kind of a close graze at 12z and GGEM was a hit at 12z. Oh, I think it's legit from what I've outlined and still is evidenced et al. I'll probably be starting a thread for that as "early monitoring" - or the like - fairly soon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh, I think it's legit from what I've outlined and still is evidenced et al. I'll probably be starting a thread for that as "early monitoring" - or the like - fairly soon. Judging by last storm, please start every thread for the rest of the year. Thanks. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 We need these two cutters to reset things, then its' go time. Sucks but a week will be here and gone in short order. Just hope there is minimal damage in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh, I think it's legit from what I've outlined and still is evidenced et al. I'll probably be starting a thread for that as "early monitoring" - or the like - fairly soon. Oh no… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I do not know if you can look bad but it sure seems the GEFS has came back a notch on the MJO strength in the last 2 days...as we've seen for 2 months this year has been a rare case where the GEFS has tended to be too strong with waves, albeit its verifying better than the EPS its also been way too slow with the wave passages too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I do not know if you can look bad but it sure seems the GEFS has came back a notch on the MJO strength in the last 2 days...as we've seen for 2 months this year has been a rare case where the GEFS has tended to be too strong with waves, albeit its verifying better than the EPS its also been way too slow with the wave passages too The olr maps don’t have it that strong in the warm phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a good approach for the time frame in question - not intending to condescend but keep it from orbit for now... I've also been discussing the 15th+ period as a time that fits the canonical teleconnector correlation/distribution, for cold eastern storm genesis over the eastern continent. These Lakes cutters in the foreground ... they may or may not be influenced by a steadily increasing -NAO exertion over time, but likely not in time to save the winter enthusiasts from a frustrating tour de fault in that regard. Really very impressed by the immense power suggestive by mere 2.5 day-long cycle between very deep and large winter cyclones through the Lakes. Typically a 975 mb humdinger leads an interval of quiescence - not happening is intriguing. An amazing hemisphere really... You know, it's not impossible that someone between Chi town and Indy would receive upwards of 30" between the two events or more, a significant percentage of their seasonal cryo quota spanning 5 days. But it doesn't end there... the third in the series - at least in so far as the Euro - is apparently responding to the forcing of said telecon projections in then running up/or off the EC with another very deep solution. ...All these solutions ...there, here ...everywhere, are subjective to model attenuation-correction tendencies. But ... sufficed it is to say, when they are all sub 980 and even sub 970 mb, they can shed the 20% and still be charming. Anyway, long of the short - I'd be watching the 16-17th (still). It's really not that far away. We've started threads for early monitoring over less impressive signals. It may just be a matter of time before something significant through the 20th (even) comes over the ens horizon - if the 17th fails. 12z Euro has a 975 mb low over the thumb of Michigan at Midnight tonight then a Sub 970mb low approaching the same exact spot 72 hours later.. It has to be even more rare to track over the same exact locations at the strength.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Hazey said: We need these two cutters to reset things, then its' go time. Sucks but a week will be here and gone in short order. Just hope there is minimal damage in between. wasn't the same said on dec 17th? just another cutter away from winter commencement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: wasn't the same said on dec 17th? just another cutter away from winter commencement The only thing cutters reset is our expectations for winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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