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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a good approach for the time frame in question - not intending to condescend but keep it from orbit for now...

I've also been discussing the 15th+ period as a time that fits the canonical teleconnector correlation/distribution, for cold eastern storm genesis over the eastern continent. 

These Lakes cutters in the foreground ... they may or may not be influenced by a steadily increasing -NAO exertion over time, but likely not in time to save the winter enthusiasts from a frustrating tour de fault in that regard.  

Really very impressed by the immense power suggestive by mere 2.5 day-long cycle between very deep and large winter cyclones through the Lakes.  Typically a 975 mb humdinger leads an interval of quiescence - not happening is intriguing.   An amazing hemisphere really...  You know, it's not impossible that someone between Chi town and Indy would receive upwards of 30" between the two events or more, a significant percentage of their seasonal cryo quota spanning 5 days.

But it doesn't end there... the third in the series - at least in so far as the Euro - is apparently responding to the forcing of said telecon projections in then running up/or off the EC with another very deep solution.  

...All these solutions ...there, here ...everywhere, are subjective to model attenuation-correction tendencies.  But ... sufficed it is to say, when they are all sub 980 and even sub 970 mb, they can shed the 20% and still be charming.

Anyway, long of the short - I'd be watching the 16-17th (still).   It's really not that far away. We've started threads for early monitoring over less impressive signals.  It may just be a matter of time before something significant through the 20th (even) comes over the ens horizon - if the 17th fails.

 

One trend I didn't love there was to slow the retrograde of the NAO block a bit...perhaps a nod to closer to the 20th.

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15 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Welcome to MJO 4 past the 20th

image.thumb.png.7e3c9aa5fb8af5943a6bc5f31177de57.png

Average temp here on Jan 23 is 14°, so a few degrees AN doesn't preclude snow.  Last January was 9° AN, easily the mildest of 25 Januarys here, and we only had 29.9" of white stuff.  :D

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1/16 actually does look pretty interesting on most guidance. Inhibiting factor right now is lead time but Euro obviously has it, GFS was kind of a close graze at 12z and GGEM was a hit at 12z. 

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38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1/16 actually does look pretty interesting on most guidance. Inhibiting factor right now is lead time but Euro obviously has it, GFS was kind of a close graze at 12z and GGEM was a hit at 12z. 

Oh, I think it's legit from what I've outlined and still is evidenced et al.

I'll probably be starting a thread for that as "early monitoring" - or the like - fairly soon. 

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I do not know if you can look bad but it sure seems the GEFS has came back a notch on the MJO strength in the last 2 days...as we've seen for 2 months this year has been a rare case where the GEFS has tended to be too strong with waves, albeit its verifying better than the EPS its also been way too slow with the wave passages too

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25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I do not know if you can look bad but it sure seems the GEFS has came back a notch on the MJO strength in the last 2 days...as we've seen for 2 months this year has been a rare case where the GEFS has tended to be too strong with waves, albeit its verifying better than the EPS its also been way too slow with the wave passages too

The olr maps don’t have it that strong in the warm phases. 

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a good approach for the time frame in question - not intending to condescend but keep it from orbit for now...

I've also been discussing the 15th+ period as a time that fits the canonical teleconnector correlation/distribution, for cold eastern storm genesis over the eastern continent. 

These Lakes cutters in the foreground ... they may or may not be influenced by a steadily increasing -NAO exertion over time, but likely not in time to save the winter enthusiasts from a frustrating tour de fault in that regard.  

Really very impressed by the immense power suggestive by mere 2.5 day-long cycle between very deep and large winter cyclones through the Lakes.  Typically a 975 mb humdinger leads an interval of quiescence - not happening is intriguing.   An amazing hemisphere really...  You know, it's not impossible that someone between Chi town and Indy would receive upwards of 30" between the two events or more, a significant percentage of their seasonal cryo quota spanning 5 days.

But it doesn't end there... the third in the series - at least in so far as the Euro - is apparently responding to the forcing of said telecon projections in then running up/or off the EC with another very deep solution.  

...All these solutions ...there, here ...everywhere, are subjective to model attenuation-correction tendencies.  But ... sufficed it is to say, when they are all sub 980 and even sub 970 mb, they can shed the 20% and still be charming.

Anyway, long of the short - I'd be watching the 16-17th (still).   It's really not that far away. We've started threads for early monitoring over less impressive signals.  It may just be a matter of time before something significant through the 20th (even) comes over the ens horizon - if the 17th fails.

 

12z Euro has a 975 mb low over the thumb of Michigan at Midnight tonight then a Sub 970mb low approaching the same exact spot 72 hours later.. It has to be even more rare to track over the same exact locations at the strength.. 

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