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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Speaking of getting a life....wife and other two kids are back on the 25th, so it would be good to sneak one in before there is a full house again.

You are the only one I know with wife and kids that go away for weeks at a time during the year. What’s your secret or…what are you doing wrong?

 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You are the only one I know with wife and kids that go away for weeks out a time during the year. What’s your secret or…what are you doing wrong?

 

Secret is marrying a woman from Uganda and investing in real estate over seas.

On the other end of the spectrum....spending more time virtually with you than my family? :lol:

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54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Are you serious? 1.5" and 13-16" gradient over 4 miles??

The NH seacoast area can be a challenge to forecast for. As can be several places in southern NH. Pelham has several micro climates based on elevation. 

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS looks like goes between the BM and ACK...

Funny, it sounds dumb, but I had a really good feeling when I started getting that OES CJ during the day on Saturday...that is pretty rare here and I feel like it portended where the atmosphere wanted to snow.

The OES was even "heavier"  in parts of Haverhill and Plaistow than in Methuen. There was a noticeable difference while I was driving down 495 and 213 to get back home.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Haha We rent 3 properties that we have converted to Airbnb's and have some other land purchased for agroforestry, which is a pretty coveted industry in a developing country.

Is this Above Ground Biomass? That's big for carbon credits. 

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2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The NH seacoast area can be a challenge to forecast for. As can be several places in southern NH. Pelham has several micro climates based on elevation. 

The OES was even "heavier"  in parts of Haverhill and Plaistow than in Methuen. There was a noticeable difference while I was driving down 495 and 213 to get back home.

Makes sense being closer to the ocean....I am just over the line from Haverhill.

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't mean its wrong.....with a huge block and teleconnections in a state of mass flux, I would say storminess is favored.

I still feel like the bigger threat may end up being the 20th as the blocking decays, but the 17th is certainly worth watching

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23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro is a JAM and waffles around too. It will probably show a weak ots wave at 12z. 

Agreed! If they're showing me this look on Friday I'll start to get interested, but it does seem like we're lining things up a little better after this weekend

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2 hours ago, Heisy said:

I know I’ll sound like a weenie, but if we see this trend continue in 50/50 land (look at the improvement in Lower heights in this area 00z eps vs 12z ) this event has historic potential with the amount of energy diving SE. if you get a mechanism to hold down the LP off the coast wow…9537664dbd74d0d164092a6db8525d02.gif


.

It's a good approach for the time frame in question - not intending to condescend but keep it from orbit for now...

I've also been discussing the 15th+ period as a time that fits the canonical teleconnector correlation/distribution, for cold eastern storm genesis over the eastern continent. 

These Lakes cutters in the foreground ... they may or may not be influenced by a steadily increasing -NAO exertion over time, but likely not in time to save the winter enthusiasts from a frustrating tour de fault in that regard.  

Really very impressed by the immense power suggestive by mere 2.5 day-long cycle between very deep and large winter cyclones through the Lakes.  Typically a 975 mb humdinger leads an interval of quiescence - not happening is intriguing.   An amazing hemisphere really...  You know, it's not impossible that someone between Chi town and Indy would receive upwards of 30" between the two events or more, a significant percentage of their seasonal cryo quota spanning 5 days.

But it doesn't end there... the third in the series - at least in so far as the Euro - is apparently responding to the forcing of said telecon projections in then running up/or off the EC with another very deep solution.  

...All these solutions ...there, here ...everywhere, are subjective to model attenuation-correction tendencies.  But ... sufficed it is to say, when they are all sub 980 and even sub 970 mb, they can shed the 20% and still be charming.

Anyway, long of the short - I'd be watching the 16-17th (still).   It's really not that far away. We've started threads for early monitoring over less impressive signals.  It may just be a matter of time before something significant through the 20th (even) comes over the ens horizon - if the 17th fails.

 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Secret is marrying a woman from Uganda and investing in real estate over seas.

On the other end of the spectrum....spending more time virtually with you than my family? :lol:

Hey, sorry for the OT, I tried to PM but it wouldn't go through. I have been looking at getting into real estate investing and I'm interested in learning about your setup

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Let's get some Arctic Hounds in here. We haven't experienced a prolonged stretch of Vodka cold in quite some time, just a quick hitter here and there. Need to Kill off the ticks and adelgids. 

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24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have deleted a few PMs...try now. I can have my wife email you, as that is more her endeavor.

Lets all buy a weenie compound in Randolph NH. :lol:  Walk over the Phin's and crash his hot tub.

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I still feel like the bigger threat may end up being the 20th as the blocking decays, but the 17th is certainly worth watching

Yea, my preferred window is after the 20th, but close enough that it wouldn't surprise me...fits with the general anticipated progression of the season.

Classic canonical!!!

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17 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Let's get some Arctic Hounds in here. We haven't experienced a prolonged stretch of Vodka cold in quite some time, just a quick hitter here and there. Need to Kill off the ticks and adelgids. 

Not even Chernobyl would kill the ticks. 

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