weatherwiz Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Is it too late in the season to get any giant typhoons and better yet, a recurving typhoon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 44 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Eh. Sure. Perhaps we’re not evaluating these maps similarly. I’m doing more than just reading T values/anomalies but keying on which air masses are where. I.e., if signs indicate CP airmass just to our north/west, I wouldn’t be making the observation. I’m in agreement that this window is best in a while, but still doesn’t look good imo. Well, this has triggered me to check. Firstly, I prefer to keep a D9-13 "signal" pretty coarse. It's even less deterministically useful at a range of 9 days (Jesus) just trying to get the deep tropospheric signal to emerge. When signal are still attempting to emerge ... that seems backward in an operational sense. Confidence should improve in the emergence side, first ... then, along the way ..sure, increase evaluation efforts with those details. So yeah - I guess we have different approach. Having said that, the 850 mb thermal layout on the 4th in the EPS is ample cold enough. I realize that is not the BL but the BL temperature and hydrostatic thicknesses mean almost nothing in the midst of the solar min with any sufficiently strong system penetrating this particular layout - I'm just not seeing a warm BL problem given these initial conditions I checked the other ens systems and they're not significantly different. I'm done looking ( for now) for reasons/philosophy of approach I just described above. So, we'll see - Look, your post "timing" was pounced in character, as though going after snow enthusiasts? haha. Lord knows that is a lot of fun. But, I don't really give a fuck if it rains or snows at this range. I care about being right and having insight on periods of interest. Having said that, these critical level thermal field projections (above) centered mid way through the 4th -6th are encouraging considering everything that is substantive from this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 EPS are a little more bullish on 1/7 than 1/5…the 1/5 wave a weaker and more seaward but still has some decent members. The 1/7 wave seems to have a lot more members and the mean is closer to the BM. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Is it too late in the season to get any giant typhoons and better yet, a recurving typhoon? You want them now... but in terms of OHC and SSTs and all that? The western Pacific climatology makes their season open ended compared to the Atlantic Basin. It does contract to the SW - similar to the Atlantic - but it doesn't really shut down. The other thing - and this is purely John speculation haha ... - the typhoon recurving seems to really be after the mode of the circulation from the Indian Ocean to the Date Line are already transmitting a change around the hemisphere. The typhoon occurs because of that. The circuitry there is that the TC latency inject plume enters the circulation and gives the R-wave signature a boost - typically in the EPO domain and the ridge benefits which then in turn helps the cold loading into N/A. LOL, why ... is there a typhoon recurving? haven't checked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS are a little more bullish on 1/7 than 1/5…the 1/5 wave a weaker and more seaward but still has some decent members. The 1/7 wave seems to have a lot more members and the mean is closer to the BM. Yeah ...I saw that. But, the wave spacing is really close to the 4-6th, which is real enough and from what I see, has been +trend in recency. If this latter aspect were not in play, I'd be more inclined to lean - not that I'm exactly leaning to begin with. haha. Too early Typically when we get these sort of contention/spacing -related looks, the lead ends up winning the debate. that is, honestly, more old school model performance-wise. Still, I'm not sure if at 9 day ( Jan 5) lead, the models can't swap those out. We'll see. I like the whole period of time so - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Beginning to think ratter on the table based on historical snow from Nov to Jan 1 no season with under an inch has been anywhere near normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You want them now... but in terms of OHC and SSTs and all that? The western Pacific climatology makes their season open ended compared to the Atlantic Basin. It does contract to the SW - similar to the Atlantic - but it doesn't really shut down. The other thing - and this is purely John speculation haha ... - the typhoon recurving seems to really be after the mode of the circulation from the Indian Ocean to the Date Line are already transmitting a change around the hemisphere. The typhoon occurs because of that. The circuitry there is that that the latency inject plume enters the circulation and gives the R-wave signature a boost - typically in the EPO domain and the ridge benefits which then in turn helps the cold loading into N/A. LOL, why ... is there a typhoon recurving? haven't checked Thanks for the explanation on this! As for the bolded...ehhh just thinking of ways we can just significantly alter things and on the more quicker side of the spectrum I am just getting a little nervous that if we keep harping on and reflecting on "subtle" changes this winter is going to turn into a dud very quickly. I see no reason to deviate from my winter outlook thoughts, but at some point going to have to ask myself, "where is the line between wishing and reality"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS are a little more bullish on 1/7 than 1/5…the 1/5 wave a weaker and more seaward but still has some decent members. The 1/7 wave seems to have a lot more members and the mean is closer to the BM. That is what I keyed in on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Beginning to think ratter on the table based on historical snow from Nov to Jan 1 no season with under an inch has been anywhere near normal Yup. The further we push into Jan without much to show for…we’ll need a biggie or two just to get us back on track to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Beginning to think ratter on the table based on historical snow from Nov to Jan 1 no season with under an inch has been anywhere near normal I think a 2015 outcome would be the floor, but keep in mind that we had a monster just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS are a little more bullish on 1/7 than 1/5…the 1/5 wave a weaker and more seaward but still has some decent members. The 1/7 wave seems to have a lot more members and the mean is closer to the BM. Would it be cold enough though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think a 2015 outcome would be the floor, but keep in mind that we had a monster just to the south. Like 79.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Like 79.... I think 2016 was closer than PD I, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 No signs of any pattern change for the next two weeks, 12z GFS is rinse and repeat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 8:57 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yes it would still be useful even if PV goes to other side because it promotes a -AO. When you have that in an El Niño, your chances for big storms drastically increase. As always, no guarantees it works out but also as always, you want as many variables in your favor as possible. Your lips to G-d's ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Beginning to think ratter on the table based on historical snow from Nov to Jan 1 no season with under an inch has been anywhere near normal 24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup. The further we push into Jan without much to show for…we’ll need a biggie or two just to get us back on track to normal. The numbers are what the numbers are. There is a reason when we are skunked through December into Jan, the numbers aren’t good. Too much ground to make up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 15 minutes ago, qg_omega said: No signs of any pattern change for the next two weeks. I remember when I was first started looking at model maps, too. 1 2 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The numbers are what the numbers are. There is a reason when we are skunked through December into Jan, the numbers aren’t good. Too much ground to make up. I don't care if I end up with a total snowfall near my average, I just want a 15-20 incher and a couple moderate storms mixed in. Just want kit to look like winter for a few weeks, is that too much to ask? Of course, I would take one 2-3 footer too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 40 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Would it be cold enough though? Certainly on that track it would be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Beginning to think ratter on the table based on historical snow from Nov to Jan 1 no season with under an inch has been anywhere near normal I think we’re quickly moving the goalposts from a near normal season to solidly below. This doesn’t mean we can’t have a good/fun stretch at some point. Not sure of a true rat yet. Today is just another day where it feels and smells like we’re mid-rat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Opps 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think 2016 was closer than PD I, but I could be wrong. It was. PDI whiffed basically all of SNE save maybe 1-3” on the south coast. 2016 got double digits into southern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Wow. That’s vomit worthy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Wow. That’s vomit worthy. Looks like what you typically see in the poconos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 we joked about it in years past, but it's really happening!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 18 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Wow. That’s vomit worthy. Attitash blows but this is bad even for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks like what you typically see in the poconos. Just checked there website. $123 for the day to ski a ribbon of slush surrounded by mud. Woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Just checked there website. $123 for the day to ski a ribbon of slush surrounded by mud. Woof Lol I would never pay that on these conditions. I doubt anyone but the most hardcore skiers would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol I would never pay that on these conditions. I doubt anyone but the most hardcore skiers would. Nobody is skiing there except season pass holders or maybe the few unlucky families that booked that week in advance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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