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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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Here today, Here to stay?

StormTotalSnowWeb08.jpg

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
413 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

MEZ012>014-020-021-033-NHZ004-006-082115-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0002.240110T0000Z-240110T1500Z/
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Androscoggin-
Kennebec-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Carroll-Southern
Carroll-
Including the cities of Bethel, New Sharon, Moultonborough,
Bridgewater, Wilton, Farmington, Windsor, Athens, Tuftonboro,
Albany, Jay, Vassalboro, Crawford Notch, Embden, Turner, Bryant
Pond, Milton, Bridgton, Oxford, Ossipee, Hanover, Sidney, Locke
Mills, Rumford, Augusta, Wolfeboro, Harrison, Temple, Greene,
Wales, Chesterville, Waterville, Conway, Newry, Madison, Palermo,
Palmyra, Chatham, Naples, China, Brookfield, Lewiston, Skowhegan,
Fryeburg, Pittsfield, Jackson, New Vineyard, Norway, Auburn,
Minot, Wakefield, Sabattus, Livermore Falls, Cornville, and North
Conway
413 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy, wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater
  than 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine
  and northern New Hampshire.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Wet snow will readily cling to branches and power lines.
  The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power
  lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Significant snowfall
  and periods of heavy snowfall rates will combine with low
  visibility to create very dangerous driving conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains,
booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing.
Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help
you survive in case you become stranded.

&&

$$

Baron
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13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Here today, Here to stay?

StormTotalSnowWeb08.jpg

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
413 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

MEZ012>014-020-021-033-NHZ004-006-082115-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0002.240110T0000Z-240110T1500Z/
Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Androscoggin-
Kennebec-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Carroll-Southern
Carroll-
Including the cities of Bethel, New Sharon, Moultonborough,
Bridgewater, Wilton, Farmington, Windsor, Athens, Tuftonboro,
Albany, Jay, Vassalboro, Crawford Notch, Embden, Turner, Bryant
Pond, Milton, Bridgton, Oxford, Ossipee, Hanover, Sidney, Locke
Mills, Rumford, Augusta, Wolfeboro, Harrison, Temple, Greene,
Wales, Chesterville, Waterville, Conway, Newry, Madison, Palermo,
Palmyra, Chatham, Naples, China, Brookfield, Lewiston, Skowhegan,
Fryeburg, Pittsfield, Jackson, New Vineyard, Norway, Auburn,
Minot, Wakefield, Sabattus, Livermore Falls, Cornville, and North
Conway
413 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy, wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater
  than 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine
  and northern New Hampshire.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Wet snow will readily cling to branches and power lines.
  The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power
  lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Significant snowfall
  and periods of heavy snowfall rates will combine with low
  visibility to create very dangerous driving conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains,
booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing.
Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help
you survive in case you become stranded.

&&

$$

Baron

Seems reasonable that in the end after these next two storms, the mountains, and maybe the foothills have a very durable high qpf pack, as it gets colder and the typical snows occur.  Thick and meaty.

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Seems reasonable that in the end after these next two storms, the mountains, and maybe the foothills have a very durable high qpf pack, as it gets colder and the typical snows occur.  Thick and meaty.

They look to cash finally.

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12.6 for the low this morning. Didn’t keep an eye on that and wasn’t expecting it. Definitely chilly to wake up to. 
 

Please look for my essay later today entitled:

”Why I’m Happy I Only Got 9” of Snow Before The Coming 2” of Rain”

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Very active pattern the next two weeks... Suspect we may repeat these colorful headline days a few times through the 20th.

Scott's more right than re the 15-17th. Current/available indicators have then better as probabilistic for winter enthusiasm.

These events in the foreground are in successive order encountering steadily more exertion - apparently - from building/west limb -NAO expression in the flow. 

The 10th is locked.  It's a primarily a wind and flood headliner SW of CT.  Much NE of NYC-PVD-BOS line, I have doubts about wind realization with new snow pack and boundary layer drag both impeding mixing.  But it gets mild and melts and we rain, nonetheless.  Brevity may keep the flood concern to just smaller tributaries and any ice clog back ups.

The 13/14th is still trying to lean more coastal commitment, while the ballast of the primary maintains and runs up through Ontario.  But that hesitation on the lead side will probably allow for a start up snow/mix over to ice for a time - at this range we can't be certain over how long that would impact/amt, but it's not a "snow/mix storm" either without more changes. 

But out around 15th+ with unknown ending ... the +d(PNA) has been well underway - I outlined much of that teleconnector business yesterday/above.   Although it is the so-called clown range, the emergence of Euro and/or GGEM ( different structures...) are non-zero wintry potentials; they are better seated than mere noise typically found at this range, due to these super synoptic indicators weighting the dice there some.

 

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40 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Seems reasonable that in the end after these next two storms, the mountains, and maybe the foothills have a very durable high qpf pack, as it gets colder and the typical snows occur.  Thick and meaty.

Yeah we’ll probably have a dense 6-8” remaining after the cutter pulls out. After it freezes back up it’s probably going to be with us until March.

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3 minutes ago, Digityman said:

Nice to see the mountains will keep their snow.  Heading to Sugarloaf this weekend.  We went over the holidays and didn't ski because the conditions were so bad.

They should be able to start building pack this week. 

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12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still shoveling @jbenedet's nearly 19" of whiff/warm from my driveway....almost as good as his forecast 38" of whiff for @dendrite a few years back.

Bro get a life. Seriously. January snowfall expectations have gone DOWN even with yesterday's storm. Probability is absolutely lost on you. Even the most basic shit.

I said to close the shades. You'd be much better off. I stand by it. Or we could all be holding on with great expectations following your BS, for what will be a "Don't blink, your snow is gone, January." Ratter.

January is running as expected. My well below normal snowfall forecast to verify. Now you're clinging onto this storm because your January forecast and seasonal forecast is trending from worse to abysmal. You're the fool pounding your chest when January --despite this last storm--looks like dogshit against your calls. With 2 major stemwinders dumping on the midwest, and cutting the warm sector to Quebec City.  Funny just a few short weeks ago you and brooklyn were celebrating those weeklies for this???? :huh: 

Good to know you're still standing by your shit call of Normal to AN snowfall this winter. Can't wait for the facade of accountability "I was wrong" mea culpa. And we're supposed to think this means something.

Ratter odds are up; don't get it twisted.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, dryslot said:

They should be able to start building pack this week. 

It was incredible yesterday and better today. This coming weekend should be epic minus the crowds. 

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Bro get a life. Seriously. January snowfall expectations have gone DOWN even with yesterday's storm. Probability is absolutely lost on you. Even the most basic shit.

I said to close the shades. You'd be much better off. I stand by it. Or we could all be holding on with great expectations following your BS, for what will be a "Don't blink, your snow is gone, January." Ratter.

January is running as expected. My well below normal snowfall forecast to verify. Now you're clinging onto this storm because your January forecast and seasonal forecast is trending from worse to abysmal. You're the fool pounding your chest when January --despite this last storm--looks like dogshit against your calls. With 2 major stemwinders dumping on the midwest, and cutting the warm sector to Quebec City.  Funny just a few short weeks ago you and brooklyn were celebrating those weeklies for this???? :huh: 

Good to know you're still standing by your shit call of Normal to AN snowfall this winter. Can't wait for the facade of accountability "I was wrong" mea culpa. And we're supposed to think this means something.

Ratter odds are up; don't get it twisted.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What an angry, bitter, impotent and ineffectual little man....I'm truly sorry that you are so unhappy with your lot in life, but I suggest you take action to change it, as opposed to projecting it onto others.

For the record, here is my January excerpt for reference.

January 2024 Outlook

January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2)
This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5, however, there is a possibility that it will be focused to the south of New England. The PNA should remain variable, which will continue to fuel an active pattern as the PV grows increasingly more disturbed in the wake of a SSW during the window from about Christmas through January 8. 
 
 H5 composite:
1951-2010
JAN%2051%20H5.jpeg
 
 

 
1991-2020:
jan%2091.jpeg
 
 
January 2024 Forecast Temp Anomalies:
 
1951-2010:
 
AVvXsEgFTbAmzT_hsqGHa2SMIueAAHV8BwVSx1Lc
 
The month should finish from near normal to 2 degrees F above average over New England due to the magnitude of the late month cold not being able to negate the early warmth. However, the Mid Atlantic should be normal to 2 degrees F below average.

1991-2020:
 
AVvXsEgsg7J1z-XZwWsQdlK55O9uzdzewp9Kb4u0

 
 

January 2024 Forecast Precip Anomalies:
 
1951-2010:
 
JAN%2051%20PRECIP.jpeg
 
 

1991-2020:
 
JAN%2091%20PRECIP.jpeg
 
 

It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composite, as the degree of warmth in the oceans should ensure plenty of 
moisture availability.
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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

@40/70 BenchmarkNormal to AN snowfall forecast for 2023-2024.

How it's going: snowless December. One SECS in January.

 

"I was wrong about December"

"I was wrong about January"..

"I was wrong about....." 

 

Wow. Appreciate the honesty.

 

:clown:

SECS? It was over a foot N and W of Boston. lol

Have a great day.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why I love being so detailed with everything.....splendid counter for when guys like him try to move my goal posts.

Just comes in spraying Nuns with wine and throwing the Eucharist around like frisbees. 

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26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Bro get a life. Seriously. January snowfall expectations have gone DOWN even with yesterday's storm. Probability is absolutely lost on you. Even the most basic shit.

I said to close the shades. You'd be much better off. I stand by it. Or we could all be holding on with great expectations following your BS, for what will be a "Don't blink, your snow is gone, January." Ratter.

January is running as expected. My well below normal snowfall forecast to verify. Now you're clinging onto this storm because your January forecast and seasonal forecast is trending from worse to abysmal. You're the fool pounding your chest when January --despite this last storm--looks like dogshit against your calls. With 2 major stemwinders dumping on the midwest, and cutting the warm sector to Quebec City.  Funny just a few short weeks ago you and brooklyn were celebrating those weeklies for this???? :huh: 

Good to know you're still standing by your shit call of Normal to AN snowfall this winter. Can't wait for the facade of accountability "I was wrong" mea culpa. And we're supposed to think this means something.

Ratter odds are up; don't get it twisted.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was always talking about mid-Jan as the main turning point. sure the Weeklies were nice and I posted them, but those took a back seat to the general pattern progression, which seems to be occurring now

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