dryslot Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Here today, Here to stay? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gray ME 413 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 MEZ012>014-020-021-033-NHZ004-006-082115- /O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0002.240110T0000Z-240110T1500Z/ Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Androscoggin- Kennebec-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Carroll-Southern Carroll- Including the cities of Bethel, New Sharon, Moultonborough, Bridgewater, Wilton, Farmington, Windsor, Athens, Tuftonboro, Albany, Jay, Vassalboro, Crawford Notch, Embden, Turner, Bryant Pond, Milton, Bridgton, Oxford, Ossipee, Hanover, Sidney, Locke Mills, Rumford, Augusta, Wolfeboro, Harrison, Temple, Greene, Wales, Chesterville, Waterville, Conway, Newry, Madison, Palermo, Palmyra, Chatham, Naples, China, Brookfield, Lewiston, Skowhegan, Fryeburg, Pittsfield, Jackson, New Vineyard, Norway, Auburn, Minot, Wakefield, Sabattus, Livermore Falls, Cornville, and North Conway 413 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy, wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine and northern New Hampshire. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Wet snow will readily cling to branches and power lines. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Significant snowfall and periods of heavy snowfall rates will combine with low visibility to create very dangerous driving conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. && $$ Baron 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 14” of snow immediately followed by 3” of rain less than 72 hrs later is unfortunate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Not as unfortunate as rain and a half inch of snow followed by rain. Count your dendrites, I mean, blessings. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Here today, Here to stay? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gray ME 413 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 MEZ012>014-020-021-033-NHZ004-006-082115- /O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0002.240110T0000Z-240110T1500Z/ Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Androscoggin- Kennebec-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Carroll-Southern Carroll- Including the cities of Bethel, New Sharon, Moultonborough, Bridgewater, Wilton, Farmington, Windsor, Athens, Tuftonboro, Albany, Jay, Vassalboro, Crawford Notch, Embden, Turner, Bryant Pond, Milton, Bridgton, Oxford, Ossipee, Hanover, Sidney, Locke Mills, Rumford, Augusta, Wolfeboro, Harrison, Temple, Greene, Wales, Chesterville, Waterville, Conway, Newry, Madison, Palermo, Palmyra, Chatham, Naples, China, Brookfield, Lewiston, Skowhegan, Fryeburg, Pittsfield, Jackson, New Vineyard, Norway, Auburn, Minot, Wakefield, Sabattus, Livermore Falls, Cornville, and North Conway 413 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy, wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine and northern New Hampshire. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Wet snow will readily cling to branches and power lines. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Significant snowfall and periods of heavy snowfall rates will combine with low visibility to create very dangerous driving conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. && $$ Baron Seems reasonable that in the end after these next two storms, the mountains, and maybe the foothills have a very durable high qpf pack, as it gets colder and the typical snows occur. Thick and meaty. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Seems reasonable that in the end after these next two storms, the mountains, and maybe the foothills have a very durable high qpf pack, as it gets colder and the typical snows occur. Thick and meaty. They look to cash finally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 These wind advisories are nuts lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12.6 for the low this morning. Didn’t keep an eye on that and wasn’t expecting it. Definitely chilly to wake up to. Please look for my essay later today entitled: ”Why I’m Happy I Only Got 9” of Snow Before The Coming 2” of Rain” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Very active pattern the next two weeks... Suspect we may repeat these colorful headline days a few times through the 20th. Scott's more right than re the 15-17th. Current/available indicators have then better as probabilistic for winter enthusiasm. These events in the foreground are in successive order encountering steadily more exertion - apparently - from building/west limb -NAO expression in the flow. The 10th is locked. It's a primarily a wind and flood headliner SW of CT. Much NE of NYC-PVD-BOS line, I have doubts about wind realization with new snow pack and boundary layer drag both impeding mixing. But it gets mild and melts and we rain, nonetheless. Brevity may keep the flood concern to just smaller tributaries and any ice clog back ups. The 13/14th is still trying to lean more coastal commitment, while the ballast of the primary maintains and runs up through Ontario. But that hesitation on the lead side will probably allow for a start up snow/mix over to ice for a time - at this range we can't be certain over how long that would impact/amt, but it's not a "snow/mix storm" either without more changes. But out around 15th+ with unknown ending ... the +d(PNA) has been well underway - I outlined much of that teleconnector business yesterday/above. Although it is the so-called clown range, the emergence of Euro and/or GGEM ( different structures...) are non-zero wintry potentials; they are better seated than mere noise typically found at this range, due to these super synoptic indicators weighting the dice there some. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: 15-16 is the next sort of “threat.” Until then it’s the same crap we had prior to this recent storm. Yea, that mid month stretch is evolving. Gonna be some adjustments IMO and hopefully more get in on it this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 40 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Seems reasonable that in the end after these next two storms, the mountains, and maybe the foothills have a very durable high qpf pack, as it gets colder and the typical snows occur. Thick and meaty. Yeah we’ll probably have a dense 6-8” remaining after the cutter pulls out. After it freezes back up it’s probably going to be with us until March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Debbie's take a seat 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Here today, Here to stay? Nice to see the mountains will keep their snow. Heading to Sugarloaf this weekend. We went over the holidays and didn't ski because the conditions were so bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Digityman said: Nice to see the mountains will keep their snow. Heading to Sugarloaf this weekend. We went over the holidays and didn't ski because the conditions were so bad. They should be able to start building pack this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Debbie's take a seat That’s a beautiful look. And not clown range either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Debbie's take a seat 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’s a beautiful look. And not clown range either. Next week could feature some fun. Powder keg setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Debbie's take a seat Wow, its gonna be cold in Poland! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still shoveling @jbenedet's nearly 19" of whiff/warm from my driveway....almost as good as his forecast 38" of whiff for @dendrite a few years back. Bro get a life. Seriously. January snowfall expectations have gone DOWN even with yesterday's storm. Probability is absolutely lost on you. Even the most basic shit. I said to close the shades. You'd be much better off. I stand by it. Or we could all be holding on with great expectations following your BS, for what will be a "Don't blink, your snow is gone, January." Ratter. January is running as expected. My well below normal snowfall forecast to verify. Now you're clinging onto this storm because your January forecast and seasonal forecast is trending from worse to abysmal. You're the fool pounding your chest when January --despite this last storm--looks like dogshit against your calls. With 2 major stemwinders dumping on the midwest, and cutting the warm sector to Quebec City. Funny just a few short weeks ago you and brooklyn were celebrating those weeklies for this???? Good to know you're still standing by your shit call of Normal to AN snowfall this winter. Can't wait for the facade of accountability "I was wrong" mea culpa. And we're supposed to think this means something. Ratter odds are up; don't get it twisted. 3 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 @40/70 Benchmark: Normal to AN snowfall forecast for 2023-2024. How it's going: snowless December. One SECS in January while blizzards slam the Midwest. OOPS. "I was wrong about December" "I was wrong about January".. "I was wrong about....." Wow. Appreciate the honesty. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlue Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 39 minutes ago, dryslot said: They should be able to start building pack this week. It was incredible yesterday and better today. This coming weekend should be epic minus the crowds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Bro get a life. Seriously. January snowfall expectations have gone DOWN even with yesterday's storm. Probability is absolutely lost on you. Even the most basic shit. I said to close the shades. You'd be much better off. I stand by it. Or we could all be holding on with great expectations following your BS, for what will be a "Don't blink, your snow is gone, January." Ratter. January is running as expected. My well below normal snowfall forecast to verify. Now you're clinging onto this storm because your January forecast and seasonal forecast is trending from worse to abysmal. You're the fool pounding your chest when January --despite this last storm--looks like dogshit against your calls. With 2 major stemwinders dumping on the midwest, and cutting the warm sector to Quebec City. Funny just a few short weeks ago you and brooklyn were celebrating those weeklies for this???? Good to know you're still standing by your shit call of Normal to AN snowfall this winter. Can't wait for the facade of accountability "I was wrong" mea culpa. And we're supposed to think this means something. Ratter odds are up; don't get it twisted. What an angry, bitter, impotent and ineffectual little man....I'm truly sorry that you are so unhappy with your lot in life, but I suggest you take action to change it, as opposed to projecting it onto others. For the record, here is my January excerpt for reference. January 2024 Outlook January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2) This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5, however, there is a possibility that it will be focused to the south of New England. The PNA should remain variable, which will continue to fuel an active pattern as the PV grows increasingly more disturbed in the wake of a SSW during the window from about Christmas through January 8. H5 composite: 1951-2010 1991-2020: January 2024 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: The month should finish from near normal to 2 degrees F above average over New England due to the magnitude of the late month cold not being able to negate the early warmth. However, the Mid Atlantic should be normal to 2 degrees F below average. 1991-2020: January 2024 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composite, as the degree of warmth in the oceans should ensure plenty of moisture availability. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: @40/70 Benchmark: Normal to AN snowfall forecast for 2023-2024. How it's going: snowless December. One SECS in January. "I was wrong about December" "I was wrong about January".. "I was wrong about....." Wow. Appreciate the honesty. SECS? It was over a foot N and W of Boston. lol Have a great day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 PGW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: PGW This is why I love being so detailed with everything.....splendid counter for when guys like him try to move my goal posts. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Take the L. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is why I love being so detailed with everything.....splendid counter for when guys like him try to move my goal posts. Just comes in spraying Nuns with wine and throwing the Eucharist around like frisbees. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Take the L. Yeah the day after people got 20” from a storm you said was going to be a whiff probably isn’t the best time to be throwing shade 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 These are the maps that will be used for grading/verification purposes...the monthly analogs....the others ones are the seasonal composites for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 26 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Bro get a life. Seriously. January snowfall expectations have gone DOWN even with yesterday's storm. Probability is absolutely lost on you. Even the most basic shit. I said to close the shades. You'd be much better off. I stand by it. Or we could all be holding on with great expectations following your BS, for what will be a "Don't blink, your snow is gone, January." Ratter. January is running as expected. My well below normal snowfall forecast to verify. Now you're clinging onto this storm because your January forecast and seasonal forecast is trending from worse to abysmal. You're the fool pounding your chest when January --despite this last storm--looks like dogshit against your calls. With 2 major stemwinders dumping on the midwest, and cutting the warm sector to Quebec City. Funny just a few short weeks ago you and brooklyn were celebrating those weeklies for this???? Good to know you're still standing by your shit call of Normal to AN snowfall this winter. Can't wait for the facade of accountability "I was wrong" mea culpa. And we're supposed to think this means something. Ratter odds are up; don't get it twisted. I was always talking about mid-Jan as the main turning point. sure the Weeklies were nice and I posted them, but those took a back seat to the general pattern progression, which seems to be occurring now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 also, canonical EP super Nino, my ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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