Typhoon Tip Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: seems like a solid window from the 15-23rd afterwards. good agreement on all ensemble guidance Winterwolf loves this word so I'll use it again here just for him. The canonical teleconnector correlations, when balancing all projects, is very closely matched to that date range you got there - from what I have been observing as of late. There is a new +d(PNA) ( actually started emerging 4 days ago and is above 0SD as of today) running out through the 20th. That does not appear to be mere noise. There is limited spread in native sources, and they all have the positive delta. Meanwhile, the EPO is tanking rather abuptly negative during this week. We are thus relaying a -EPO into a +d(PNA). That is a cold loader pattern into middle latitude continent. The scale/amount of +d(PNA) is on the order of -1.5 SD to +.5 ...so ~ 2 SD total correction - which is a subtantive amount over an index domain that is very large. It can be dispersed unevenly, granted, but I am noticing a tendency in the spatial ens means, to raise heights over the open Pac Basinc between Hawaii and California. This is typically the type a signal that would lead me to start an extended lead thread for storm threat over eastern America - I'm holding back in deference to seasonal trends. 13th is a bit early for this discussion, but that one is actually in contention for other forcing - in my mind - due to the uncertainties with the western limb variant of the -NAO expression. We are < D7 but ... mm there's still tendencies to smear that E in some of these operational runs. so we'll see on that. It's possible to run a Lakes Cutter and have the low unravel over western Quebec given the -d(NAO) is still in formulation and the exertion isn't matured. Kind of race there - not sure that can be confidently refuted so it's easier to assume a GEFs/EPS blend there. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Seems like an extended lull on winter wx.When did it really startSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 59 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Close them until February, remember when many were said COD after 3? Insanity Take into account the MJO lag of about a week puts Jan 15-23 in a favorable period with an unfavorable period right after until MJO gets into more positive phases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 55 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: seems like a solid window from the 15-23rd afterwards. good agreement on all ensemble guidance Then to the shitter late Jan into Feb. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 57 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: seems like a solid window from the 15-23rd afterwards. good agreement on all ensemble guidance I just mean next 7-9 days at least. We’ll see how it goes afterwards 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 28 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: When did it really start Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Congrats on an upper echelon snow event today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Then to the shitter late Jan into Feb. into the shitter for a week or so in late Jan, yeah. i don’t see a reason for the bulk of Feb to be crappy. nothing argues for that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: into the shitter for a week or so in late Jan, yeah. i don’t see a reason for the bulk of Feb to be crappy. nothing argues for that Nothing to say it’ll be good either. Going to be brutal punting the last week of Jan, close to peak snow climo 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just mean next 7-9 days at least. We’ll see how it goes afterwards Looks like dung, a brief period of chances, and back into dung late month. The dung sandwich if you will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats on an upper echelon snow event today. Drag and Tip like snow for the 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Congrats on an upper echelon snow event today.Only to be wipedSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 FYI, the New England snow table is active. Post your totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Drag and Tip like snow for the 13th Possible but uphill battle. Need to tame that western trough and/or really compress the heights over SE Canada enough to turn it into a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 BTV has a map out for Tues/Wed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, klw said: BTV has a map out for Tues/Wed 1-3” of snow and then 1-3” of rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @raindancewxLikes to use local weather as confirmation of sensible analogs....well, look long and hard for a shit el Nino that buries interior SNE in early January...let me know when you find one. Looks a great deal like warmer versions 1966, 1987 and 2002 to me. Again, the warmth is not a surprise...no one expected a big cold/retention season with the strength of el Ninio/-PDO/ocean warmth combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 13 minutes ago, klw said: BTV has a map out for Tues/Wed wind map too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Then to the shitter late Jan into Feb. Highly doubt that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Good January call so far. This storm was hilarious, the usual suspects hyped it into a NYC snowstorm for days and days…when I gave my opinion last weekend and during the week that it wasn’t, I got attacked and trolled lol You have some great insight, but admit it....you like to titty twist winter enthusiasts That's why you get shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You have some great insight, but admit it....you like to titty twist winter enthusiasts That's why you get shit. he has never attacked or trolled. ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: he has never attacked or trolled. ever Attack is strong, but certainly passive aggressive trolling lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Fish https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1744096184656965716?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nothing to say it’ll be good either. Going to be brutal punting the last week of Jan, close to peak snow climo Says the guy 9 days ago who said we were gonna punt January, and it was gonna be snowless. You were dead wrong on that, yet here you go again? The only shit sandwich are the words that keep coming out of your mouth. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Fangs already out after 7” down. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Says the guy 9 days ago who said we were gonna punt January, and it was gonna be snowless. You were dead wrong on that, yet here you go again? The only shit sandwich are the words that keep coming out of your mouth. Enjoy the snow today bro, it’s going to washed away 5x over in the coming week. That’s the truth 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Fangs already out after 7” down. No fangs…just stating a fact. He tried to punt January a week ago Friday(12/29), before modeling swung more favorable, as folks informed him they could/might. Yet he did not heed that info, and came up on the wrong side. 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Enjoy the snow today bro, it’s going to washed away 5x over in the coming week. That’s the truth Sure is, but more will come..and that’s the truth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 This would be a good fight. Wolfie who is jacked at 54 years old and Tblizz who weighs in at a strong 260lbs. Not sure who the favorite would be 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: This would be a good fight. Wolfie who is jacked at 54 years old and Tblizz who weighs in at 260lbs. Not sure who the favorite would be AmericanWWE? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I get that it’s gonna rain and it’s pissing him, and all of us off. That sucks. But why are we always talking about punting weeks and months all the time. There looks to be some favorable periods coming up after this rain event on Wednesday. Maybe it fails. But 8-9 days ago this nice snow event for many of us, didn’t even seem possible. That’s more my point. I understand that Brett wants snow, and so do I. And a cutter two days after our snow is disappointing. But I honestly don’t think we go snowless the next 3/4 of January. It doesn’t seem to be all doom and gloom going forward. So I just don’t understand the complete angst on a regular basis all the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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