January 2024 -- Discussion

[ma blizzard]

Ended up with 23.1" for January 

25.2" Season to Date 

[dendrite]

Still caked up here with no sun since I can’t remember when. 
 

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still caked up here with no sun since I can’t remember when. 
 

Cloudy days saving the pack. I want no sun 

[The 4 Seasons]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cloudy days saving the pack. I want no sun 

what the snow depth there?

[powderfreak]

We had some brief brightening for seconds at a time today.  If we could go full bluebird with the rime ice layer starting on trees at like 1500ft, the views would be incredible.  Only the valley at 750-1500ft isn’t rimed up.  Stratus layer has been stuck for days at mid-slope and summits.

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

what the snow depth there?

I mean I got 2.5” this week and there’s been zero sun and days of flurries and temps below 32. I haven’t measured since it ended, but there’s no grass blades showing . It’s certainly at minimum 2”. With sleet/ ice in it . Took this today along with the other one I posted. It isn’t much at all .. but it has been a decent snow cover month believe it or not. 

[The 4 Seasons]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I mean I got 2.5” this week and there’s been zero sun and days of flurries and temps below 32. I haven’t measured since it ended, but there’s no grass blades showing . It’s certainly at minimum 2”. With sleet/ ice in it . Took this today along with the other one I posted. It isn’t much at all .. but it has been a decent snow cover month believe it or not. 

that insane, the majority of CT id say probably 95% doesnt even have a trace of snow. Up and down 91 and 95 and all the lower elevations, different world up there. There's literally not even piles here, might as well be November

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

that insane, the majority of CT id say probably 95% doesnt even have a trace of snow. Up and down 91 and 95 and all the lower elevations, different world up there. There's literally not even piles here, might as well be November

I drove 6-7 minutes down route 74 into Vernon today . There’s nothing at all otg . Lower spots here in Tolland have snow but it’s definitely less . Under 700 feet is where you notice it . You can still see some of the trees caked in snow . I don’t radiate but the days stay colder so I take that as a good trade off in winter and marginal situations. This was Monday morning after I shoveled the inch from overnight . It’s sad how little snow there is . Don’t want sun

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Still caked up here with no sun since I can’t remember when. 
 

When that stuff comes down it’s gonna be another storm.  Probably add an inch or two to the pack in the woods.  Looks exactly the same here

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I mean I got 2.5” this week and there’s been zero sun and days of flurries and temps below 32. I haven’t measured since it ended, but there’s no grass blades showing . It’s certainly at minimum 2”. With sleet/ ice in it . Took this today along with the other one I posted. It isn’t much at all .. but it has been a decent snow cover month believe it or not. 

See that matters right there.  Consistent snow cover, even if it’s not deep winter.  Every winter day with no grass visible is a good day. 

[kdxken]

41 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

See that matters right there.  Consistent snow cover, even if it’s not deep winter.  Every winter day with no grass visible is a good day. 

It's surprising how well it's held on. No melt whatsoever. Even a few inches can last a while. Today...

[CoastalWx]

I need the sun. Eff the pack. This blows.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Still caked on the trees here. Even at work in Leominster.  Lack of sun helps a lot this time of year. 
 

[HoarfrostHubb]

 Not my pic but Wachusett tonight 

 

[Sn0waddict]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cloudy days saving the pack. I want no sun 

And if you have no pack to save? Lol

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

that insane, the majority of CT id say probably 95% doesnt even have a trace of snow. Up and down 91 and 95 and all the lower elevations, different world up there. There's literally not even piles here, might as well be November

What a horrid winter….10 straight days of cloudy. Que up bob seger desperado the sky won’t snow the sun won’t shine 

[Sn0waddict]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

What a horrid winter….10 straight days of cloudy. Que up bob seger desperado the sky won’t snow the sun won’t shine 

Two more days of it too.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I need the sun. Eff the pack. This blows.

We have had sun, one out of the past 10 days in Greenfield.  

  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

What a horrid winter….10 straight days of cloudy. Que up bob seger desperado the sky won’t snow the sun won’t shine 

The Eagles.  Jeezuz dude, let's get our 70's rock references correct!   If you want Bob Seger lets go with "Turn the Page" on this winter.  

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

It's surprising how well it's held on. No melt whatsoever. Even a few inches can last a while. Today...

Is that cabin your man cave Ken?

[rimetree]

7.68" of rain and 21.5" snow for January. Not great snow-wise but could have been worse of course. Onward and upward.

[Prismshine Productions]

18" of snow for the month, I gladly take

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

January Forecast a Modest Success

 

Here is a review of the January forecast Narrative from November 11th: 

January 2024 Outlook

January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2)

"This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5, however, there is a possibility that it will be focused to the south of New England. The PNA should remain variable, which will continue to fuel an active pattern as the PV grows increasingly more disturbed in the wake of a SSW during the window from about Christmas through January 8. 

It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composite, as the degree of warmth in the oceans should ensure plenty of moisture availability".

 

Lets begin with a review of the behavior of the major teleconnections and an analysis of the forecast. 

 

The NAO was volatile and essentially neural, with a mean value of approximately -.13 for the month.

 

 

The behavior of the AO can be characterized as very similar with a mean value of about -.22.

 

 

Finally, the PNA, while averaging slightly positive during the month of February at a value of .37, belies the true nature of the pattern. First of all, the one negative interlude diring month coicided with the arctic outbreak, thus ensuring that it loaded west. Additionally, the +PNA periods were largely biased to the west. 

 

 

This synoptic nuance was much like January 2023 in the sense that having the lower heights concentrated just off of the west coast actually reenforced deeper negative anomalies along the west in what was more representative to a RNA (-PNA) pattern.

 

This is evident in the monthly composite below.

 

Note the ridge positioned off of the west coast, with the deep negative anomalies over the western CONUS as a response.

 

This is in comparison to the forecast H5 composite for the month January, which had slightly lower over the east than reality due to the Pacific ridge, presumably as a result of residual cool ENSO GLAAM and a very warm western Pacific.

 

 

The result was that the month was slightly milder than forecast across the forecast region.

Temperatures were expected to finish the month anywhere from near normal to about +2F over New England and near normal to as much as 2F below average over the mid Atlantic.

 

 

However, New England finished more like +1 to +3F and the mid Atlantic near normal to +1F. This modest positive departure from forecast temp anomalies is in large part because of the mid month arctic outbreak loading west as a direct result of the aforementioned low Western CONUS heights. While this was a theme in the analog package, it was more pronounced than forecast.

 

The forecast precipitation composite was heavily flawed, as January 2024 has been one of the wetter months of January on record along much of the east coast.

 

 

But it was stipulated in the forecast that this was likely to be the case.

"It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composite, as the degree of warmth in the oceans should ensure plenty of moisture availability".

 

And it indeed was an issue.

 

This is likely due to an active sub tropical jet working in concert with a a great deal of mass flux, as evidenced by the volatility of the major teleconnections. 

 

Overall the narrative for the month of January was largely accurate. The snowfall distribution for the month was indeed heavily weighted towards the interior, as forecast, in large part due to the major storm that occurred January 6-7th. 

Additionally, there was in fact a major volar vortex disruption as forecast (SSW), however, it occured 9 days outside of the specified 12/25-1/8 window, on January 17 per Judah Cohen. Although the first of two identified seasonal windows for a major east coast snow storm looks to pass unceremoniously (1/22-2/5), the period did not want for opportunity. The first threat, which technically occurred just prior to the onset of the period around January 20, was simply not afforded enough wave space for the follow up polar vortex lobe to amplify.

 

 

However, the potential did not go unnoticed by CIPS, which flagged matches to the days leading up to the Great Blizzard of 1978 (a January & February analog) and the Blizzard of January 1996 (residual cool ENSO GLAAM) as viable synoptic analogs.  And the second round of potential within this window is set to occur on around February 5th.

 

[SJonesWX]

I got 28.5" in January, I guess that is about average. I grade with heavy weight on snow cover. ground was bare before the squalls on 1/14, so half the month gets an F in that regard. second of the half gets a B with 15" and full cover. 

YTD: 33", which is a little below average. but December gets a solid F, which means that so far, the winter has been around a C or C-. 

i know that many will not agree and say that January was good because I got 28". 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

I got 28.5" in January, I guess that is about average. I grade with heavy weight on snow cover. ground was bare before the squalls on 1/14, so half the month gets an F in that regard. second of the half gets a B with 15" and full cover. 

YTD: 33", which is a little below average. but December gets a solid F, which means that so far, the winter has been around a C or C-. 

i know that many will not agree and say that January was good because I got 28". 

28.5” would be well above average…even here. CON averages 17.1”.

[tamarack]

January in the Maine foothills:

Avg temp:   19.8    +4.6
Avg max:     28.1    Mildest, 43 on the 10th
Avg min:      11.5    Coldest, -12 on the 19th

Precip:    5.47"    +2.16" and 0.01" behind 2nd wettest.  Greatest day, 2.18" on the 10th

Snow:   29.9"    +8.5" and identical to Jan 2023.  Biggest day, 9.0" on the 10th (followed by 0.84" RA, making an awful mess)
Depth:   Max:  20" on several days   
              Avg:  13.7"   +1.7"

This month was well AN for temp, precip and snow.  It featured 5 significant snowfalls ranging from 3.8" to 9.0".  The 1.0" squall on the 14th
was one of the best since we left Fort Kent in 1985.
The powerful storms on the 10th and 13th that pounded to coast did little damage here other than clogging the snowblower, as winds were modest in each.

[SJonesWX]

16 hours ago, dendrite said:

28.5” would be well above average…even here. CON averages 17.1”.

wow i am surprised the vg is that low

[amirah5]

On 12/27/2023 at 8:22 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if I was the GM I’d be saying come ski for 20-30 bucks and maybe you make a killing on concessions/lunch in the lodge. Try to get some volume-based profit. 
 

Anyways, we have a couple interesting patterns coming up…we get a more split-flow Nino look for the first week of January but the ensembles are giving way to a La Niña look week 2 in January with a -PNA…but you also have a -EPO and a -NAO. That pattern could be very good for us or we end up dealing with cutters. Regardless, total change from December…Canada is likely to get very cold in that pattern. 

By the way, for those interested in diversifying their investments, I recommend checking out https://icoholder.com/en/stos/past. It's a great resource for exploring secure token offerings and could be an interesting addition to your portfolio, especially with the evolving financial landscape.

I agree with your idea on attracting more skiers with affordable prices and making up the difference with concessions and lodge services. It's a smart way to boost volume-based profit, especially in a competitive market.