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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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I don’t really think the West specific warm pool is as much of an offset to the El Niños people think anyway.… It’s a full integral of a planet problem. It’s always been about a heat source versus a heat sink. If you fill the sink you have less flow from the source. That is a planetary issue of being too warm everywhere for the El Niño to differentiate against the background tapestry. 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don’t really think the West specific warm pool is as much of an offset to the El Niños people think anyway.… It’s a full integral of a planet problem. It’s always been about a heat source versus a heat sink. If you fill the sink you have less flow from the source. That is a planetary issue of being too warm everywhere for the El Niño to differentiate against the background tapestry. 

It's both....what you are speaking of is more of what I focused on in my write up....weaker expression of warm ENSO. Not arguing against that at all....but I just wished I would have emphasized the Maritime forcing a bit more than I did, especially in December. And I did definitely emphasize it as it was.

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's both....what you are speaking of is more of what I focused on in my write up....weaker expression of warm ENSO. Not arguing against that at all....but I just wished I would have emphasized the Maritime forcing a bit more than I did, especially in December. And I did definitely emphasize it as it was.

Are you saying that warm pool helped continue the convective forcing during December? I think we also had a screaming jet from that massive cold outbreak in China. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Are you saying that warm pool helped continue the convective forcing during December? I think we also had a screaming jet from that massive cold outbreak in China. 

Yeah that pattern was kind of nuts. Beijing had their coldest december on record…PAC jet on ‘roids which gave that CONUS chinook. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Are you saying that warm pool helped continue the convective forcing during December? I think we also had a screaming jet from that massive cold outbreak in China. 

I'm saying it definitely predisposes the convection to that location, yes. But I agree that the jet extension made it significantly warmer than it otherwise than it otherwise would have been.

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6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So the way things have changed and have changed and have changed with the models, they can change again and we can see surprises still through the month of February and into March. It's not over till it's over people

Thanks Bluto

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say I enjoyed this last week a lot. It’s not much snow, but serviceable and finally iced up the ponds. 
 

 

Yeah thank god we froze our asses off all week for the sake of the pond ice

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty much. Macro forecasting is typically easier because you don’t have to worry about smaller scale nuances that can’t be predicted in advance. Stuff like NAO blocks have proven time and again to be mostly stochastic. 

The more I know, the more I don't know.  :>

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah thank god we froze our asses off all week for the sake of the pond ice

Past week cold was run of the mill, not impressive and almost no records.  Will see more records on the warm side Friday this week

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks Bluto

Don't be a dick man. Just because you're starting to melt down doesn't mean other people have to. Why is it that some people have to come back with a smart-ass remark when someone has something positive to say?

I know the deal. It hasn't been an ideal winter again. But you don't have to answer my post with your smart-ass remark so you can feel better about yourself... . I don't appreciate it and I'm sure other people don't either. 

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1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Don't be a dick man. Just because you're starting to melt down doesn't mean other people have to. Why is it that some people have to come back with a smart-ass remark when someone has something positive to say?

I know the deal. It hasn't been an ideal winter again. But you don't have to answer my post with your smart-ass remark so you can feel better about yourself... . I don't appreciate it and I'm sure other people don't either. 

You don’t understand the sense of humor here.  This is not a smart ass remark.  Wheee are you from?

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hopefully this cold was deep enough to set the tick and other invasive insect population back

Minimal snow cover with deep anomalous negative temperatures is essential for tick control.  Anomalous dry weather from April to June will also get it done.  
I’m a tick obsessive weather weenie. 
 

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