Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 I don’t really think the West specific warm pool is as much of an offset to the El Niños people think anyway.… It’s a full integral of a planet problem. It’s always been about a heat source versus a heat sink. If you fill the sink you have less flow from the source. That is a planetary issue of being too warm everywhere for the El Niño to differentiate against the background tapestry. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 12:03 AM, DavisStraight said: Ill be there 2-4th Expand Where too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 12:42 AM, Typhoon Tip said: I don’t really think the West specific warm pool is as much of an offset to the El Niños people think anyway.… It’s a full integral of a planet problem. It’s always been about a heat source versus a heat sink. If you fill the sink you have less flow from the source. That is a planetary issue of being too warm everywhere for the El Niño to differentiate against the background tapestry. Expand It's both....what you are speaking of is more of what I focused on in my write up....weaker expression of warm ENSO. Not arguing against that at all....but I just wished I would have emphasized the Maritime forcing a bit more than I did, especially in December. And I did definitely emphasize it as it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 Nice to see new members coming on board. Wolfie may disagree. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 12:50 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's both....what you are speaking of is more of what I focused on in my write up....weaker expression of warm ENSO. Not arguing against that at all....but I just wished I would have emphasized the Maritime forcing a bit more than I did, especially in December. And I did definitely emphasize it as it was. Expand Are you saying that warm pool helped continue the convective forcing during December? I think we also had a screaming jet from that massive cold outbreak in China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:07 AM, CoastalWx said: Are you saying that warm pool helped continue the convective forcing during December? I think we also had a screaming jet from that massive cold outbreak in China. Expand Yeah that pattern was kind of nuts. Beijing had their coldest december on record…PAC jet on ‘roids which gave that CONUS chinook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:07 AM, CoastalWx said: Are you saying that warm pool helped continue the convective forcing during December? I think we also had a screaming jet from that massive cold outbreak in China. Expand I'm saying it definitely predisposes the convection to that location, yes. But I agree that the jet extension made it significantly warmer than it otherwise than it otherwise would have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 F for this winter so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:24 AM, Cold Miser said: F for this winter so far. Expand Yeah, 1 semi wintry week isn’t enough to move it off an F so far here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 I will say I enjoyed this last week a lot. It’s not much snow, but serviceable and finally iced up the ponds. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 But now I look ahead and anger grows. 2 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 So the way things have changed and have changed and have changed with the models, they can change again and we can see surprises still through the month of February and into March. It's not over till it's over people 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:39 AM, Snowcrazed71 said: So the way things have changed and have changed and have changed with the models, they can change again and we can see surprises still through the month of February and into March. It's not over till it's over people Expand Thanks Bluto 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:30 AM, CoastalWx said: I will say I enjoyed this last week a lot. It’s not much snow, but serviceable and finally iced up the ponds. Expand Yeah thank god we froze our asses off all week for the sake of the pond ice 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 12:34 AM, ORH_wxman said: Pretty much. Macro forecasting is typically easier because you don’t have to worry about smaller scale nuances that can’t be predicted in advance. Stuff like NAO blocks have proven time and again to be mostly stochastic. Expand The more I know, the more I don't know. :> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:49 AM, dendrite said: Yeah thank god we froze our asses off all week for the sake of the pond ice Expand Past week cold was run of the mill, not impressive and almost no records. Will see more records on the warm side Friday this week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 Still waiting on a pattern that really reminds me of El Nino frankly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 Hopefully this cold was deep enough to set the tick and other invasive insect population back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:45 AM, CoastalWx said: Thanks Bluto Expand Don't be a dick man. Just because you're starting to melt down doesn't mean other people have to. Why is it that some people have to come back with a smart-ass remark when someone has something positive to say? I know the deal. It hasn't been an ideal winter again. But you don't have to answer my post with your smart-ass remark so you can feel better about yourself... . I don't appreciate it and I'm sure other people don't either. 3 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:30 AM, CoastalWx said: I will say I enjoyed this last week a lot. It’s not much snow, but serviceable and finally iced up the ponds. Expand Well, winter vibe is always special because you never know how short of a trip it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 2:04 AM, Snowcrazed71 said: Don't be a dick man. Just because you're starting to melt down doesn't mean other people have to. Why is it that some people have to come back with a smart-ass remark when someone has something positive to say? I know the deal. It hasn't been an ideal winter again. But you don't have to answer my post with your smart-ass remark so you can feel better about yourself... . I don't appreciate it and I'm sure other people don't either. Expand You don’t understand the sense of humor here. This is not a smart ass remark. Wheee are you from? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:30 AM, CoastalWx said: I will say I enjoyed this last week a lot. It’s not much snow, but serviceable and finally iced up the ponds. Expand Agreed. Definitely moves it to it at least a d- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 2:04 AM, Typhoon Tip said: Hopefully this cold was deep enough to set the tick and other invasive insect population back Expand Minimal snow cover with deep anomalous negative temperatures is essential for tick control. Anomalous dry weather from April to June will also get it done. I’m a tick obsessive weather weenie. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:39 AM, Snowcrazed71 said: So the way things have changed and have changed and have changed with the models, they can change again and we can see surprises still through the month of February and into March. It's not over till it's over people Expand Is that you Wolfie? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:49 AM, dendrite said: Yeah thank god we froze our asses off all week for the sake of the pond ice Expand Where were you during the SNE pond ice winter of 23/24… 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 Something will break right for us eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 12:43 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Where too? Expand Going snowmobiling, I think we're staying in Lincoln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 2:21 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Where were you during the SNE pond ice winter of 23/24… Expand Stop it with those smart ass comments! Nobody likes them! I think we lost you a long time ago. We mourn. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 2:35 AM, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: Something will break right for us eventually. Expand Nothing breaks, except the SNE pond ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 Does Friday clear out and shoot to 55F+. Half day of work and hoping to enjoy it. If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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