MJO812 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Scanning the ensemble source/means over night, there's still a signal for the end of the month that is on the robuster side of the climate. The time range still beyond 200 hours. The 28th system appears to be fading? No qualms from me. The index method likes that one less ( but not zero ) than leaning toward the 30th. What is interesting, it is as though both the EPS and GEFs are sans the 28th and 30th in lieu of "merging" or emerging at all, on to the 29th mid way between. That's kind of cool ... for determinstic nerds lol. If this continues to emerge ...there'll be problems with cold air availability though, too. I'm willing to lean that some of the 850 mb positive anomalies normalize ( but not all), as the larger synoptic signal begins to back the deep layer flow NW over Canada - Having a big PNA ridge would help bringing down colder air. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I'm sick of looking at red dots on an ensemble mean or @brooklynwx99 with his encouraging 500 mb trend GIFs. Need some actual results...the clock is ticking. 4 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Having a big PNA ridge would help bringing down colder air. The idea as I said it, is that the present 850 mb layouts from those same means, for the 29th, is warm - but might "correct" in future guidance. It was an implicit suggestion relating to model behavior/biases at this range... But yes ... in a 101 synoptic sense of it, a western N/A ridge is a cooler flow over the eastern N/A region. But here's thing ... this kind of gets into other facets but, the warmth seems to dominate very quickly when the cold sourcing pulls out - that's a change over earlier generation. Hint hint. heh When the spigot turns off in the form of the N/stream going flat across higher latitudes, there seems to be an "acceleration" where cold air moderates faster than it used to years and years ago. Like I said, it gets into another discussion... but reiterating, ' it seems mid latitudes have a tougher time being winter, in winter, when there isn't a direct feed of arctic air as a static delivery .' To exaggerate for point, it's either 15 to 20 F, or 45 ... The system we had that gave the 6 to 15" regionally a couple weeks ago - that's getting increasingly rarer. 31 F unperturbed snow storms. Anyway, the current projected +PNA is occurring without an antecedent cold source. Perhaps owing to the above idea, it's like a favorable flow structure that is warmer than climo suggests it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Thurs/Friday. Take em up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Thurs/Friday. Take em up Well if its going to be warm might as well go all out and break some records. Maybe we can still salvage winter next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Thurs/Friday. Take em up I'm hoping this happens ooa Feb 20 ... because we will by then be soaking in post solar minimum heating, climate momentum..., during a pre-CC holocaust either no one believes is real ( or simply can't get their heads around) ...but are either way unknowing racing toward, after the last 8 years have featured half of them with an episode of 70 to 80 F that unbelievably early, and ... short version? we 80 in Feb again. Having it happen during a presupposed El Nino February? that is also an ancillary tastiness. LOL 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Lots of pretty colors aloft. We’ll see how that looks at the surface come verification time. The GFS looks wet and miserable. Hopefully it’s wrong. GEFS are definitely much warmer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Lots of pretty colors aloft. We’ll see how that looks at the surface come verification time. The GFS looks wet and miserable. Hopefully it’s wrong. GEFS are definitely much warmer. Oh yeah ...that's the other thing. Because of New England's unique gaped butt hole exposure to any possibility imaginable to sink cold into the cleft east of the western New England bum cheek ... we can't even (at least) enjoy the warmth of the impending climate holocaust. Because Antarctic will have completely decapitated all ice and tropical flora will start growing ... New England will be wedged with 38 F with fog and mist. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: Lots of pretty colors aloft. We’ll see how that looks at the surface come verification time. The GFS looks wet and miserable. Hopefully it’s wrong. GEFS are definitely much warmer. Eh. Yeaaa. We know how this works for your turf. All caveats apply. Different world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 A nice NNE clipper has been showing up mid next week on the gfs, that would be a nice refresher for my trip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 11 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Eh. Yeaaa. We know how this works for your turf. All caveats apply. Different world. mm... I don't know if I'd draft that out as being distinctly his 'prison term' ... Having suffered the vicissitudes of New England's colder than everywhere else whenever the pattern tries to run warm over the decades, I'm inclined to say that we're on the same turf - maybe another end of the field, but definitely a similar circumstantial earth. We are all guarded within the same circumstance. Put it this way... if he were a lifer, we're on a 30 year stint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: A few miles west of you are the real weenie spots in Washington / S Goshen Haha, my house in Lempster, just south of the Goshen line! Washington up the hill over the Lempster Ridgeline does a little better at 1,500' or so. I'm right about 1,200'. It is a local weenie spot! Id prefer a Pittsburg/Rangeley/Sugarloaf area climo for snow or something a little further N in real upslope country but my criteria when looking for this place dictated a little easier drive from Boston metro. Considered no properties below 1,000', haha. Stumbled on this place 4 years ago and Ive been pretty happy with it. Far enough SE to get in on the mid level magic with coastals. Decent on SWFEs and can hold frozen precip better than adjacent areas to the south and east. Always a noticeable difference Keene (~25 miles left out of my driveway) and here / Hillsborough to Washington always a big gradient in snow as well. Sorry a little off topic, nobody ever talks about this area because there are about 12 people living in it, haha. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Riding time is a wrestling term. Oh huh had no clue. For me it’s just a reference to how we are all riding time, a bit deep lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, H2Otown_WX said: I'm sick of looking at red dots on an ensemble mean or @brooklynwx99 with his encouraging 500 mb trend GIFs. Need some actual results...the clock is ticking. Right, eventually you need some ground truth or it becomes an exercise in insanity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 So a warm cold rain instead of just plain warm rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm... I don't know if I'd draft that out as being distinctly his 'prison term' ... Having suffered the vicissitudes of New England's colder than everywhere else whenever the pattern tries to run warm over the decades, I'm inclined to say that we're on the same turf - maybe another end of the field, but definitely a similar circumstantial earth. We are all guarded within the same circumstance. Put it this way... if he were a lifer, we're on a 30 year stint. Yeah it could spike on Thursday, but it honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see 30s/40s on a full wedge…was the Euro the only guidance that spiked us? I saw GFS never got us out of the sfc wedge but I haven’t looked super closely at all guidance yet this morning from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: So a warm cold rain instead of just plain warm rain. For this reason, this got me. Nearly spit out my coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 This winter won't get an F from me. At least we had one week. Absolute stunner today. Wish we would have more... 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Some come back as soon as there’s some signs of warmth. I’m not sure I buy that. I’m thinking we got a couple of inches of snow Tuesday night and then a couple of more inches of snow, followed by some mix and rain which solidifies the pack and then I think we get a significant storm Early next week and then we’ll see where we stand in terms of temperatures and snowpack and the pattern. but I’m not a met so what do I know 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, kdxken said: This winter won't get an F from me. At least we had one week. Absolute stunner today. Wish we would have more... Agree 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 We need rain My car is a mess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it could spike on Thursday, but it honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see 30s/40s on a full wedge…was the Euro the only guidance that spiked us? I saw GFS never got us out of the sfc wedge but I haven’t looked super closely at all guidance yet this morning from last night. It appeared to be the most aggressive ... but in all cases, that's unsual to see a 1035 mb polar high slipping E while N of Maine, with a warm front blithely making it all the way to the MA/NH border. I guess ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We need rain My car is a mess Idk about down there but here we had about a dozen biblical rain events in the second half of last year...so no lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Gfs actually doesn't look terrible Tues night for a couple inches. Still full on wedge the rest of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It appeared to be the most aggressive ... but in all cases, that's unsual to see a 1035 mb polar high slipping E while N of Maine, with a warm front blithely making it all the way to the MA/NH border. I guess ... Yeah I think there’s a small window to sneak it north on Thursday but it quickly gets erased with the approaching low pressure from the southwest which re-establishes the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 ...Winter walk kind of day. Cove has been frozen for a while... You can see one of my neighbors setting up ice fishing on the left, and another neighbor on the right clearing off the snow for ice hockey. But, you can also see the open lake in the distance... Water, and what always seems to be a perpetual nw wind that never allows the water to be still to freeze. Breeze...all day, every day for infinity. That plus what must be a hidden river of LAVA under the lake are aiding in it not freezing. Just 10 miles away a bigger lake in Mass is completely frozen, plus every small and large pond in between. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 53 minutes ago, cja1987 said: Haha, my house in Lempster, just south of the Goshen line! Washington up the hill over the Lempster Ridgeline does a little better at 1,500' or so. I'm right about 1,200'. It is a local weenie spot! Id prefer a Pittsburg/Rangeley/Sugarloaf area climo for snow or something a little further N in real upslope country but my criteria when looking for this place dictated a little easier drive from Boston metro. Considered no properties below 1,000', haha. Stumbled on this place 4 years ago and Ive been pretty happy with it. Far enough SE to get in on the mid level magic with coastals. Decent on SWFEs and can hold frozen precip better than adjacent areas to the south and east. Always a noticeable difference Keene (~25 miles left out of my driveway) and here / Hillsborough to Washington always a big gradient in snow as well. Sorry a little off topic, nobody ever talks about this area because there are about 12 people living in it, haha. I spent a great deal of time in Heniker growing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Aside from a week it’s an F so far. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Hey, they may have me beat in elevation, but I can hold on to cold air with the best of them! Plus, even S Goshen is getting dangerously close to the snow hole that is Newport. My sister lives in N Charlestown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, cja1987 said: Haha, my house in Lempster, just south of the Goshen line! Washington up the hill over the Lempster Ridgeline does a little better at 1,500' or so. I'm right about 1,200'. It is a local weenie spot! Id prefer a Pittsburg/Rangeley/Sugarloaf area climo for snow or something a little further N in real upslope country but my criteria when looking for this place dictated a little easier drive from Boston metro. Considered no properties below 1,000', haha. Stumbled on this place 4 years ago and Ive been pretty happy with it. Far enough SE to get in on the mid level magic with coastals. Decent on SWFEs and can hold frozen precip better than adjacent areas to the south and east. Always a noticeable difference Keene (~25 miles left out of my driveway) and here / Hillsborough to Washington always a big gradient in snow as well. Sorry a little off topic, nobody ever talks about this area because there are about 12 people living in it, haha. Yeah, I wish I had a little more elevation (just under 900ft) but I'm tucked up in the very northwest corner of Bradford right on the Newbury line. I've got high elevation immediately to the north, west and south of me. I notice a big difference in snow cover when driving down into Henniker proper or Warner proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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