Ginx snewx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: And miss all that snow? The walks these days are perfect in the woods. Snow not too deep so I can go everywhere with the dog into the parts of the woods that are not great in the summer and fall. This is pretty freaking awesome weather right now with a moderate snow cover. I know you are tongue in cheek Just playing Scooter this morning. Looks good for you. Me not so much. Total ice can walk on the snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The ensembles are pretty bullish on something around 1/30 as well. There’s a very pronounced PNA ridge spike during that time which is prob why we’re seeing it show up this far out. Tip already mentioned this a day or two ago as a period of interest. Next week is all nuanced. We may get a nice burst on Tuesday or it could be a degree too warm aloft. Won’t know until we’re closer. Could be some epic pack numbers coming out of NNE if those systems break cold next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 We have chased the tail this month. 10th 16th 30th? Pac jet extension again is killing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The ensembles are pretty bullish on something around 1/30 as well. There’s a very pronounced PNA ridge spike during that time which is prob why we’re seeing it show up this far out. Tip already mentioned this a day or two ago as a period of interest. Next week is all nuanced. We may get a nice burst on Tuesday or it could be a degree too warm aloft. Won’t know until we’re closer. Already a few members with lows in the vicinity of the benchmark for 10 days out there would be more but there's timing differences obviously .. That signal has pretty much been there since day 15 .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 No edibles for Ginxy this morning. He is not sitting back smiling. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No edibles for Ginxy this morning. He is not sitting back smiling. IDK you see a 1040 Scooter high in that position and WAA you would think we would get dumped on. But models race that warm front NE and with it the lift. I bet Hunchie scores again, surprise surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Could be some epic pack numbers coming out of NNE if those systems break cold next week. In a bad winter for much of central and southern New England last year, we had a great pack in excess of 20 inches and at one point over 30 inches. I like pack, but prefer 6 to 10 inches which is easier to walk in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: IDK you see a 1040 Scooter high in that position and WAA you would think we would get dumped on. But models race that warm front NE and with it the lift. I bet Hunchie scores again, surprise surprise At this point let them have it, give us some rain to wash sand and salt from the roads and clear us out for another 4-5” snowfall in Feb and on to spring 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Wasn't this the second run from the GFS showing something for that date? I thought it showed it at 00z last night as well More than that, but the evolution has been all over. A given at this range. Ensembles?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The ensembles are pretty bullish on something around 1/30 as well. There’s a very pronounced PNA ridge spike during that time which is prob why we’re seeing it show up this far out. Tip already mentioned this a day or two ago as a period of interest. Next week is all nuanced. We may get a nice burst on Tuesday or it could be a degree too warm aloft. Won’t know until we’re closer. Does it go to rain either way ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Man if we don't have that system to track on the 30th ... This forum will be the worst we have ever seen heading into February looking at the 11-15 lol .. EPS isn't as bad but just an epic torch with no end in sight on GEFS and GEPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Does it go to rain either way ? It's going to be a last minute thing, can we get the high to tick better and thus colder.. Right now the area from 84 to the pike is has the most at stake could be a few inches of snow then a glaze over to drizzle.. Any trends weaker and east with the high would mean mostly rain .. If we can get that high stronger and more west then more are in the game for 3-6" then a glaze.. CNE is best in this set-up, my gut is that the high trends east and weaker with time .. EPS is most bullish on a few inches for you .. GEFS and GEPS are mostly rain to the pike.. The waves after that look like mostly rain as well for most of us .. Then we await Jan 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: IDK you see a 1040 Scooter high in that position and WAA you would think we would get dumped on. But models race that warm front NE and with it the lift. I bet Hunchie scores again, surprise surprise No shit, in what world would this look not give us some overrunning WAA snows down here? Nope. Not this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Boston and Washington tied Baltimore beating everyone NYC shitty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 16 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: looks like there’s a potentially legit PNA spike before the Pacific jet becomes too much to handle. 3 sigma at near our latitude is no joke yeah 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Man if we don't have that system to track on the 30th ... This forum will be the worst we have ever seen heading into February looking at the 11-15 lol .. EPS isn't as bad but just an epic torch with no end in sight on GEFS and GEPS I know the MJO isn't everything, however we seem to be mirroring the last wave. Not sure when we will be back in 1/2 however we will likely have another colder spell. Maybe DC scores again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: It's going to be a last minute thing, can we get the high to tick better and thus colder.. Right now the area from 84 to the pike is has the most at stake could be a few inches of snow then a glaze over to drizzle.. Any trends weaker and east with the high would mean mostly rain .. If we can get that high stronger and more west then more are in the game for 3-6" then a glaze.. CNE is best in this set-up, my gut is that the high trends east and weaker with time .. EPS is most bullish on a few inches for you .. GEFS and GEPS are mostly rain to the pike.. The waves after that look like mostly rain as well for most of us .. Then we await Jan 30th Sounds horrific 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: IDK you see a 1040 Scooter high in that position and WAA you would think we would get dumped on. But models race that warm front NE and with it the lift. I bet Hunchie scores again, surprise surprise The huge Bermuda high is the reason the models bring the warmth in quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/ttasselwbal/status/1748501995093131391?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Congrats Baltimore. Maybe Lamar Jackson is a closet snow weenie. 49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Close the shades Not smilin. I am officially over the half foot mark for the season with 6.25" after yesterday's .5". Not too far from 18" for combined last season and this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: IDK you see a 1040 Scooter high in that position and WAA you would think we would get dumped on. But models race that warm front NE and with it the lift. I bet Hunchie scores again, surprise surprise This has been rain for SNE for days; if you take off the weenie glasses. Focus on another period. This is just punishment and embarrassing already. 2 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Reggie the coldest out the 3Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The huge Bermuda high is the reason the models bring the warmth in quickly Exactly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I know the MJO isn't everything, however we seem to be mirroring the last wave. Not sure when we will be back in 1/2 however we will likely have another colder spell. Maybe DC scores again! If guidance is too weak and slow with MJO progression, then we’d prob be back in phase 7/8 by Feb 7-10…that would likely have some changes in the way guidance looks. It’s been too weak all year on models. There’s other factors at play but a robust MJO will def have influence. Weaker wave has less. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 10 this morning .. all the way up to 16 so far. Looks like today is bottom day for this pattern cycle. Looking at Tuesday night ... the thing is, yeah the +PP fades away E and leaves our extended region exposed. However, the gradient in that backside environment spreads out. = The winds and warm advection are weak. That leaves a rotted polar air in place, still conditionally set up with some drier air and evaporation cooling potential ..and some other feed-backs. But that doesn't matter anyway. Because as soon as the new +PP tumbles over and around the NNE cordilleras ... that cold tuck jet is going to exceed whatever any and all guidance currently depict of it - guaranteed. Unless this recent generation of modeling technology can prove otherwise, the handling of any 925 mb "tuck" jet until 24 hours ahead is still suspect in my mind. That said... as this is just coming into the meso range... noticing not very much QPF. Yeah, the mid range GFS may have been overselling that aspect from whence this was a 2 or 3 days ago. What's new? - model attenuation when nearing a period of interest. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being just light smear of snow N, and snow to IP and very light freezing ... never exceeding either low-end advisory, or just a 'specials' statement requirement. I had neglected to modulate my own thinking the other day, around the charlie browning model take away phenomenon. The set up is there in principle, however ... So it's possible there could still result more actual weight falling. I'm just annoyed by the attenuation aspect - we don't know how much is going to be taxed when moving a scenario from D7 to D3 (say..), but some amount of tariff appears to always happen as the distant range attempts to import the goods through the mid range docks. As far as that goes... that system the 00z and 06z operational GFS has programmed for the 27/28th smacks as a huge candidate for reduction of value. I'm beginning to recognize some nuances in the behavior of the 500 mb that may lend to deterministic understanding as to why that happens... This system is a nice test. The 30th appears anchored in a planetary timing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 MJO voodoo, wow. Thats probably better served up in a February thread 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Looks and feels like winter. Lake not frozen so the geese are digging the scene. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Pond skating galore around here today. May be the only time this winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I guess the goal and game plan this week is to overtake BMI for seasonal total Break on 3 …1….2…3…shoot me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I guess the goal and game plan this week is to overtake BMI for seasonal total Break on 3 …1….2…3…shoot me You know it’s going shittily when we’re chasing Baltimore for snow totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Pond skating galore around here today. May be the only time this winter Really, with ust a couple of constant days below freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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