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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will stopped posting ……

 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Phase 6/7 in February should be ok here...they are both torchy for Canada in El Nino, but they are near or BN here with a lot of low heights to our northeast, so maybe we can catch some events in our own corner while upper plains and central Canada are torching.

But who knows....we seem to find bad versions of every pattern recently.....although next week trended better on the Euro...maybe we can actually grba an advisory snowfall out of that,

:huh:

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Sounds terrible overall. Hopefully they’re misinterpreting which is common there 



Unsettled pattern develops for mid and late next week as we remain
on the northern fringes of the ridge with a stubborn trough to our
northeast across the Canadian maritimes. This will allow for several
waves of precip to impact southern New England; the first coming
late Tuesday into Wednesday as a warm front generates anafrontal
precipitation. Given a complex thermal profile, a few of the systems
next week, which appear to "reload" every 36 to 48 hours, will bring
p-type issues. Ensemble probabilities indicate the possibility of
accumulating snow, with 3" probs between 10-40% north of the MA
Turnpike, on Wednesday before precipitation eventually changes to a
mix and finally to rain. As temperatures warm progressively through
the week odds increase that each subsequent system will support less
frozen precip and more rain. In total, three rounds of precipitation
by next weekend yield somewhere in the ballpark of 0.5-1.25" QPF for
the region.

 

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sounds terrible overall. Hopefully they’re misinterpreting which is common there 



Unsettled pattern develops for mid and late next week as we remain
on the northern fringes of the ridge with a stubborn trough to our
northeast across the Canadian maritimes. This will allow for several
waves of precip to impact southern New England; the first coming
late Tuesday into Wednesday as a warm front generates anafrontal
precipitation. Given a complex thermal profile, a few of the systems
next week, which appear to "reload" every 36 to 48 hours, will bring
p-type issues. Ensemble probabilities indicate the possibility of
accumulating snow, with 3" probs between 10-40% north of the MA
Turnpike, on Wednesday before precipitation eventually changes to a
mix and finally to rain. As temperatures warm progressively through
the week odds increase that each subsequent system will support less
frozen precip and more rain. In total, three rounds of precipitation
by next weekend yield somewhere in the ballpark of 0.5-1.25" QPF for
the region.

 

Some models have shown that. I’d argue overall it looks wedgy but could very well be a cold rain. The end of the week cold shot as shown yesterday went away. 

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sounds terrible overall. Hopefully they’re misinterpreting which is common there 



Unsettled pattern develops for mid and late next week as we remain
on the northern fringes of the ridge with a stubborn trough to our
northeast across the Canadian maritimes. This will allow for several
waves of precip to impact southern New England; the first coming
late Tuesday into Wednesday as a warm front generates anafrontal
precipitation. Given a complex thermal profile, a few of the systems
next week, which appear to "reload" every 36 to 48 hours, will bring
p-type issues. Ensemble probabilities indicate the possibility of
accumulating snow, with 3" probs between 10-40% north of the MA
Turnpike, on Wednesday before precipitation eventually changes to a
mix and finally to rain. As temperatures warm progressively through
the week odds increase that each subsequent system will support less
frozen precip and more rain. In total, three rounds of precipitation
by next weekend yield somewhere in the ballpark of 0.5-1.25" QPF for
the region.

 

Ugh more effin rain

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3rd biggest snowfall of the season today at  .7”  will look like deep winter for 7 days at least.. 

5.4” on the season .. 1” ahead of last years pace at this time - last year didn’t pass 5” until Feb 28th ..

now we await the January thaw to end somewhere around Feb 7-11 based on long range ensembles and weeklies. 
 

I remain naively optimistic that we can thread the proverbial needle a few times before then.. why not 

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1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Every winter since 18-19 or 17-18

18-19 started the rat stretch.. we had a fluke night march storm to get us out of the teens that year for snowfall. Then 20/21 had the 3 week epic 40” Feb stretch for that winter .. other than that non stop rat winters since 18/19 .. this will be 5/6 well below average for me since building my new house which was a snow jinx 

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4 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I have measured 13" of snow in Brattleboro since moving up here, considering the fact there have only been 7 recorded winter events between Nov.1-Dec.31 (amounts locked behind a $205 paywall, eff that), I got to imagine that most of what we have recorded in this area is the reports I been sending to NWS Albany since the 6th storm... 53af67e98cf593916a845ef73bb08439.jpg

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Maybe try cocorahs.org.  There's an active observer in Brattleboro, WH-29 (some inactives from the town with lower numbers).   I was able to get to that observer's data dump without signing back in, though as a member since 2009 I'm somewhat familiar with the site.

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