Allsnow Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This argues for forcing progressing westward. Expand Eventually, main forcing staying in 6/7 which isn’t a great look for Nino Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:41 PM, weathafella said: Climatologically, there tends to be a few events like this every winter. In many, the wall is south of much of New England. Time will tell but there is potential for wintry qpf in a lot of places that should be torching. We'll see how it plays out. Expand Eh, north of the wall is where warm fronts go to die - that's around Winne's latitude. That line is very well established climatologically. Yes there are patterns that prove exceptions but that area is rock solid winter; and that's where I'm referencing. Being Dry is their #1 enemy to big snowfall seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 I have seen plenty of SWFE patterns that favored from around the pike points northward and even I 84...just depends and if there is ever a time for cold to get the jump climo wise, its these next few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:54 PM, Allsnow said: Eventually, main forcing staying in 6/7 which isn’t a great look for Nino Feb. Expand I still think the MJO will speed up, but we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still think the MJO will speed up, but we'll see. Expand The tendency had been since November EPS too weak/GEFS too strong, both too slow but last 2 weeks EPS strength actually was closer to reality and the GEFS was too strong...now both have grossly changed their forecast the last 4 days so who knows now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still think the MJO will speed up, but we'll see. Expand I think we get one more shot at something middle of February after the jet ext retracts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Everyone complaining about below average snowfall would not last one winter in the south...I have been here 3 weeks and feel spoiled from the 13" of snow I have gotten so far considering I could potentially total out by the end of January with more snow than I have seen in my ENTIRE 29 YEARS OF EXISTENCE (18.5") if the 24th is a thumper, just my perspective Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:24 PM, dryslot said: Yes, Especially Miller A's, Im not to crazy about them, Better down south for them as there LBSW before here if they even make it up here, But i won't kick a Miller B to the curb either up here. Expand SWFE are BNBNNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have seen plenty of SWFE patterns that favored from around the pike points northward and even I 84...just depends and if there is ever a time for cold to get the jump climo wise, its these next few weeks. Expand Atleast we have high pressure and cold in Quebec modeled. Doesnt have to always be perfect to snow, esp with latitude. Unlike many of the setups the past 2 years, next week won't have a 970 stemwinder over DTW and a high over Bermuda 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Next week looks like more of an icing concern in SNE than snow. With snow in NNE..That’s not me wanting that (though I do).. that’s the look it has 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 5:06 PM, Prismshine Productions said: Everyone complaining about below average snowfall would not last one winter in the south... I have been here 3 weeks and feel spoiled from the 13" of snow I have gotten so far considering I could potentially total out by the end of January with more snow than I have seen in my ENTIRE 29 YEARS OF EXISTENCE (18.5") if the 24th is a thumper, just my perspective Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Expand I spent 2016-2017 in NOVA. We had 1” of SLEET in mid March that winter. That’s it. That was the winter. After that, I moved to the Mid Atlantic of Massachusetts. Cape Ann. 2014-2015 was my last good winter. It’s been a decade of regression for me. The 12z GFS man HP would save next week. Either get us on the cold side or blast through with the warmth. No straddling the line with 38F rain/drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 5:19 PM, wx2fish said: Atleast we have high pressure and cold in Quebec modeled. Doesnt have to always be perfect to snow, esp with latitude. Unlike many of the setups the past 2 years, next week won't have a 970 stemwinder over DTW and a high over Bermuda Expand We got spoiled for years with those highs in Quebec…those La Niña seasons where we were getting several warning events on SWFEs while south and west furnaced. Hopefully we can grab in next week because it’s even a while as you said. These aren’t some obscenely rare feature…they do happen semi-frequently, but it was like pulling teeth the last couple seasons to get one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:56 PM, jbenedet said: Eh, north of the wall is where warm fronts go to die - that's around Winne's latitude. That line is very well established climatologically. Yes there are patterns that prove exceptions but that area is rock solid winter; and that's where I'm referencing. Being Dry is their #1 enemy to big snowfall seasons. Expand Well this year so far dry isn’t the issue. The pattern next week features the lurking cold to our north. I’ve been around long enough to see beautiful June days ruined by it while occasionally we end up surprisingly wintry during the cold season especially north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 5:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Next week looks like more of an icing concern in SNE than snow. With snow in NNE..That’s not me wanting that (though I do).. that’s the look it has Expand Lord ...... You want ice in the worst way. You ever try cryotherapy? You can freeze your ass off and get encrusted and ice ( if you go and soak and wet of course ). You are one of a kind Kev..lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 5:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Next week looks like more of an icing concern in SNE than snow. With snow in NNE..That’s not me wanting that (though I do).. that’s the look it has Expand Too early too tell IMO, but I think Tuesday has a better shot than later next week with the follow up wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 5:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Next week looks like more of an icing concern in SNE than snow. With snow in NNE..That’s not me wanting that (though I do).. that’s the look it has Expand November 1921 inbound? Would be neat to see something like that just once. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 5:32 PM, ma blizzard said: Too early too tell IMO, but I think Tuesday has a better shot than later next week with the follow up wave Expand Yeah agreed there . I remember a similar setup in early 2000’s .. before 05 when models morphed from a warm , rainy period to snow and ice in the days leading up to it . Same high strength and position . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:19 PM, UnitedWx said: I argue with myself about that. I really like events like Tuesdays. I would happily take a solid day or three of snow only accumulating 8 inches "days and days" over a large event if it happened fairly consistent throughout the season... but ask me again in six months Expand Our 1st few months in Fort Kent (and some other periods there) displayed the lots-of-modest events snow. From when we moved there on Jan 1 thru the 1.5" on May 7 as I tilled the garden, we had 93.5" with no events larger than 8". (They did have at least one double-digit storm in Dec 1975.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 5:46 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah agreed there . I remember a similar setup in early 2000’s .. before 05 when models morphed from a warm , rainy period to snow and ice in the days leading up to it . Same high strength and position . Expand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 snowflakes with dim sun right now.....thus begins days and days, lol (28°/13°) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 5:56 PM, Spanks45 said: snowflakes with dim sun right now.....thus begins days and days, lol (28°/13°) Expand Stay safe. May the bust, if any, be in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Is it really snowing in like Danbury area of ct?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Snowing here. Tiny flakes with dim sum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:21 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Stay safe. May the bust, if any, be in your favor. Expand haha, lets keep this atmosphere moist for tomorrow so we can pull off a couple of inches On 1/18/2024 at 6:38 PM, Spaizzo said: Is it really snowing in like Danbury area of ct? . Expand Legit light snow, just started to accumulate on everything besides the heavily salted roadway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 What a puke pattern on models, but we might luck out in our own little corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:54 PM, CoastalWx said: What a puke pattern on models, but we might luck out in our own little corner. Expand Need the MJO to go into 8 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 6:55 PM, MJO812 said: Need the MJO to go into 8 1 2 3 Expand MJO hasn't meant much on the classic phase composites that we know of. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 I'd also watch this period here ... Nothing specific for now - just you know ...future guidance, keep in mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Some tiny flakes in W. Hartford. No dim sun though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 5:32 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: Lord ...... You want ice in the worst way. You ever try cryotherapy? You can freeze your ass off and get encrusted and ice ( if you go and soak and wet of course ). You are one of a kind Kev..lol Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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