January 2024 -- Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We definitely have. But man I'm crying Uncle at this point. 

Since March 2018....I have had about 4 really good events.....December 2019, Feb 1, 2021, Jan 2022, as much of a relative porking as it was and Jan 7 this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The last several years, what can go wrong, goes wrong....if we get blocking, you'll hear "More useless blocking, the Pacific is king".....and if we get a decent Pacific "Well, we don't have blocking"....and seemingly either side ends up winning the golden dildo award and rams it right up my sphincter and out my ear.

I see this one frightened Phil He hadn't really seen a solid Ray melt yet...they aren't as frequent since he joined.

[Typhoon Tip]

I get the frustration - not meaning to be insensitive ...

But the deck is increasingly loaded as the years go by, wrt to that sort of 'give us a break' failure.  The expectation should be that it is getting lesser likely to observe those kind of stretches.

It's happening at some rate - whatever that is, I don't know.  It's probably a combination of bad lucky, with "climate cards deck loading" ... but the proportionality there in?  good luck figuring that out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I get the frustration - not meaning to be insensitive ...

But the deck is increasingly loaded as the years go by, wrt to that sort of 'give us a break' failure.  The expectation should be that it is getting lesser likely to observe those kind of stretches.

It's happening at some rate - whatever that is, I don't know.  It's probably a combination of bad lucky, with "climate cards deck loading" ... but the proportionality there in?  good luck figuring that out.

Man, that hit the spot....I needed a CC nut-shot while down and squirming....the blind reading the room

The thing is the west has been doing just fine, so aside from Bluewave's MJO phase 5 swallowing the world stuff, its more that than CC. Just a string of shitty Pacific years.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

We’ve measured 125” on Mansfield at this plot:

Bolton stands out big around here… from south to north:

Jay Peak… 187”

Smugglers Notch… 122”

Stowe… 125”

Bolton Valley… 165”

Mad River Glen… 109”

Sugarbush… 126”

Now, I’m not going to call anyone out but I will list the resorts who make note that they are actually measuring snow at set locations, have live cams on a snowstake or occasionally share photos of a constant location with a measuring device… Sugarbush, MRG, Stowe, Smuggs.

Infer what you want from that information.  There are two ski areas that I have never seen any proof of actual standardized measuring going on.

As far as Bolton goes, they may not have anything official but we have @J.Spin who is up there almost daily and measures across the entire ski area.  He also regularly provides ski area storm totals from north to south after each event.  With his attention to detail, I am sure he would notice if something seemed out of whack.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, mreaves said:

As far as Bolton goes, they may not have anything official but we have @J.Spin who is up there almost daily and measures across the entire ski area.  He also regularly provides ski area storm totals from north to south after each event.  With his attention to detail, I am sure he would notice if something seemed out of whack.

Definitely sticks out. I mean any reason why they are so different compared to Stowe?

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

All this beady-eyed frenetic tapping and clicking on these model runs for a futile lost cause ... haha. It strikes me as the seen in "Princes Bride,"  whereupon Count Rugen was admiring the pain he caused and as Wesley above all else still rises to his feet, ... Rugen says, "Good heavens!  Are you still trying to win?"

[SouthCoastMA]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL I wouldn't go that far. Maybe we do a Jan 05 and be on the good side while the country torches. 

I was hoping for this last year, but I'd take a Feb 1987 to cap the winter off. likely would cause some excessive melts inland though 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, that hit the spot....I needed a CC nut-shot while down and squirming....the blind reading the room

The thing is the west has been doing just fine, so aside from Bluewave's MJO phase 5 swallowing the world stuff, its more that than CC. Just a string of shitty Pacific years.

yeah...  well, that's why I suggest a combination of 'deck loading against,'  together with bad luck.

It's impossible - probably - to parse out how much is which -

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Interesting how you’ve had more in NNJ than ME. 

My NNJ home average 40", current home just shy of 90 and our years in Fort Kent over 130.  Yet that 5-year period in NNJ had big storms like no other time I've experienced.
3/19-20/1956:  24"
2/15-16/1958:  18"
3/20-21/1958:  24"
3/3-4/1960:     18"
12/11-121960:  18"
1/19-20/1961:  20"
2/3-4/1961:     24"
(That 60-61 winter also had a 10-12" paste bomb on 3/23 with most falling in 4 hours, also a cold rain on 5/27 that had a few pingers.)

[PWMan]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we haven’t had a winter (or even a weeks-long pattern) in a while where we kind of sit in a more favorable spot than the middle and western part of the country. We’ve frequently been the worst. 
 

And of course it will flip in April and May, when the rest of the country enjoys spring and we rot under a cutoff low with days and says of cold drizzle.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, if February falls though I will start fading by that point and shifting to fantasy baseball, anyway. I'm exhausted by all of the hand-wringing and writing the past several years for what has amounted to very little winter.

Ready to just say "fuc k it" and hope a high-ACE La Nina changes things next year....this would make seven consecutive well below normal snowfall seasons for me.

Only 6 (17-18) but still a horrible run.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely sticks out. I mean any reason why they are so different compared to Stowe?

I think if you are talking about most storms  ..that Stowe Under measures in a sense . I think PF has said they measure conservatively and like skiers pleasantly surprised , that probably account for maybe 15” thou .

I always believe Jay S.S’s and Bolton maybe just decided it was not a bad marketing idea since Jay gets away with it . I know these are “fighting words” for some , but that is my opinion w Jay and I’m trying to make an educated guess on Bolton this year (unless they clear every 6 hours now ) which would usually yield vastly increased totals in N greens @ elevation . So as far as J spin meticulous measuring goes ..don’t folks realize a cleared board of fluff in N greens is gonna yield about a 15% increase in totals than waiting for snow to end and starring at a Mansfield snow stake ?

**You can very easily measure with 2 different approved techniques for the same area and get a 15” total and a 19” total simultaneously **

if I was a ski resort I would probably measure using the 6 hour clearing method .. but have a “sticky highlight “ admitting how I measure so the smart folks get it 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, PWMan said:

And of course it will flip in April and May, when the rest of the country enjoys spring and we rot under a cutoff low with days and says of cold drizzle.

I just plan on it every year.

I’m still optimistic we can salvage an OK winter, at least out this way. 

[Hazey]

West coast is now the new east coast. Not sure of the mechanics behind this shift but it's noticeable. My buddy in Vancouver texted me last night. Just posted  a 12 burger yesterday. They are expecting another 8 tonight and tomorrow. They also had a 10" storm earlier this month. I've had one 8" storm on Dec 4 and that's been it except for rainers and mild intervals. There is something to this constant troughing out west and ridge east. 

[tamarack]

23 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I was hoping for this last year, but I'd take a Feb 1987 to cap the winter off. likely would cause some excessive melts inland though 

Feb 1987 was dry and near snowless.  However, we'd had 5 storms for 49" in Jan, so cry me a river.  

[powderfreak]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely sticks out. I mean any reason why they are so different compared to Stowe?

I can’t figure it out, nor can others.  40” is a big difference when everyone else is within inches of each other.  That’s like a noticeable snowpack difference.  If we had 40” more, the stake depth would be two feet higher.  But that’s not just a couple inches here or there.  Thats the equivalent of four 10-inch storms where the neighbors got nothing.

[amarshall]

South shore and Cape don't get a new event thread for tomorrow? 

[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, PWMan said:

And of course it will flip in April and May, when the rest of the country enjoys spring and we rot under a cutoff low with days and says of cold drizzle.

Sheet drizzle and fog go hand and and with mud season.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I can’t figure it out, nor can others.  40” is a big difference when everyone else is within inches of each other.  That’s like a noticeable snowpack difference.  If we had 40” more, the stake depth would be two feet higher.  But that’s not just a couple inches here or there.  Thats the equivalent of four 10-inch storms where the neighbors got nothing.

Jay is 187?”’do they get a pass for having 50% more than Stowe in a season like this 

Seems like Bolton having 22” less than Jay is basically them being on the same measurement system this year . But everyone is used to it @ Jay 

Its simple really , the guy that measures in Leominster has a twin brother that’s lived in Jay for over a decade and now he had a kid that lives in Bolton and passed down the same technique 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I can’t figure it out, nor can others.  40” is a big difference when everyone else is within inches of each other.  That’s like a noticeable snowpack difference.  If we had 40” more, the stake depth would be two feet higher.  But that’s not just a couple inches here or there.  Thats the equivalent of four 10-inch storms where the neighbors got nothing.

Yeah it doesn't pass the sniff test to me at all.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, amarshall said:

South shore and Cape don't get a new event thread for tomorrow? 

Some models barely get you anything. My guess is maybe 1-2. and hope for double.

[Cold Miser]

For those interested in some tug hill snow cams, many of the snowmobile clubs and local establishments have them up, and can be found here:
@WinterWolf

https://www.northernchateau.com/w/webcam61.html

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

We’ve measured 125” on Mansfield at this plot:

Bolton stands out big around here… from south to north:

Jay Peak… 187”

Smugglers Notch… 122”

Stowe… 125”

Bolton Valley… 165”

Mad River Glen… 109”

Sugarbush… 126”

Now, I’m not going to call anyone out but I will list the resorts who make note that they are actually measuring snow at set locations, have live cams on a snowstake or occasionally share photos of a constant location with a measuring device… Sugarbush, MRG, Stowe, Smuggs.

Infer what you want from that information.  There are two ski areas that I have never seen any proof of actual standardized measuring going on.

Mansfield co-op at 3,950' reached 149" in 1969, and hit the 130s in 1996 and 2001.  Jay base at 1,875' recorded a 110" pack in 1994 so 70% more near the top might not be impossible.  Would be better if they had a Stowe-like opening above 3k with a continuous spot to measure and photograph.

[weathafella]

Good morning.  I see everyone's happy today....

Tomorrow's potential is essentially gone unless one counts flakes as a win and even that is tenuous.  It's all good-nothing anyone can do about it.  I'll be happy either way...snow would be fun but hindering my outdoor pace (as the last 2 days have with slippery conditions underfoot) or melting and allowing me to go unworried across my usual paths.  We're supposed to go to FL in March and it couldn't come faster.

[tamarack]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said "this would make", as if this season were to finish below average.

You misunderstood.

And 23-24 would make the 6th since 17-18.  
(I think - I'm well known for misunderstanding things.)

[UnitedWx]

23 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I just plan on it every year.

I’m still optimistic we can salvage an OK winter, at least out this way. 

For my location it's been quite average. How the rest of the winter unfolds will tell if it ends up decent or dud. Time will tell, but there's LITTLE patience on this board anymore.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, tamarack said:

And 23-24 would make the 6th since 17-18.  
(I think - I'm well known for misunderstanding things.)

Yes...43rd consecutive year that I can't count.

Corrected.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You know its bad when you lose count of how many years its been since you sniffed normal snowfall.

[NW_of_GYX]

Ya it's def not a BN look going into Feb but I still like where the cold is. That's a look that could torch much of the CONUS while we wedge. That SWFE thing on the 24th is worth keeping an eye on for NNE.