CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could totally see the month just kind of being normal....which ends up as another subpar season, and a lack of blocking would leave less margin for error. Agreed. I’m actually more curious about March. I think we’ll need a good March too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Check out how deep this DGZ is on the 60 hour NAM sounding...that's the type of temp profile where you can get 6" on 0.25" of QPF if you can squeeze that much out of the atmosphere. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Hopefully the nam is a trend. But as Will said, Bruce Willis and his dry air is a flag too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey Walt long time no see. We miss you in New England. Best NWS met ever. Hey thanks... BUT. easy to not be decent at this modelology. I'll stay off this thread but I saw a comment was added. NAM continues tomorrows spits of snow and seems north for Friday. Unsure how this will play but I'm in the more snow camp. This event while not big, is different than yesterday and I think a little more potent with the config aloft. We'll see what happens if its dead and south like the EC. I'm not impressed with the EC this January. Except for 1 or 2 early D4 or 5 cycles, it was terrible on icing for yesterday. Not sure if its an adjusted way of doing the modeling - it definitely underplayed the qpf again. This my last. You all have if. If the NAM I overamped, then not much up there. Til I see the NAM RDPS lose it... I'll be looking for a little more than the tempered globals. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like there is some obfuscation and equivocation going on here....everything has gone so shitty for so long that people are conditioned to assume that that will continue, which triggers skepticism of objective analysis of guidance that isn't dire or offers reason for optimism. I agree regarding the blocking, but I see no reason to doubt the favorable Pac look during a time that is climo favored to look like that in a warm ENSO. So much human psychology intertwined into winter weather fandom. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m actually more curious about March. I think we’ll need a good March too. I hope I am wrong about March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Kitz Craver said: So much human psychology intertwined into winter weather fandom. ......everything. Especially when there is emotional investment involved. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: ......everything. Especially when there is emotional investment involved. True, true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Check out how deep this DGZ is on the 60 hour NAM sounding...that's the type of temp profile where you can get 6" on 0.25" of QPF if you can squeeze that much out of the atmosphere. Where is that? I hope it works out for the SOP guys....I don't expect much, but I am rooting for them down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, wdrag said: Hey thanks... BUT. easy to not be decent at this modelology. I'll stay off this thread but I saw a comment was added. NAM continues tomorrows spits of snow and seems north for Friday. Unsure how this will play but I'm in the more snow camp. This event while not big, is different than yesterday and I think a little more potent with the config aloft. We'll see what happens if its dead and south like the EC. I'm not impressed with the EC this January. Except for 1 or 2 early D4 or 5 cycles, it was terrible on icing for yesterday. Not sure if its an adjusted way of doing the modeling - it definitely underplayed the qpf again. This my last. You all have if. If the NAM I overamped, then not much up there. Til I see the NAM RDPS lose it... I'll be looking for a little more than the tempered globals. Please don't...... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where is that? I hope it works out for the SOP guys....I don't expect much, but I am rooting for them down there. That was right near my 'hood on the NAM. You can see it's fighting some dry air though even in that sounding. IF the dry column can be overcome, there could be a pretty nice stripe of snowfall given the deep DGZ and cold sfc temps....very high ratios most likely unless the lift stays too high above the DGZ....but usually when the DGZ is that deep, you're getting pretty good growth regardless...as long as there's some half-decent omega in there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I will never forget @wdrag's epic AFD at BOX on the Sunday evening of 3/4/2001....still have it printed and saved somewhere. Best ever. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Dim Sun is definitely on the menu here. Maybe even full sun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Dim Sun is definitely on the menu here. Maybe even full sun Practice warming your tushy on the black car seat? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, wdrag said: You all are on it... keep monitoring. 09z serf sagged a little south but pretty beefy. am pretty sure we'll see a band of 5" somewhere between PHL and BDR. also...fwiw.. a band of 1/4-1" snow continues for tomorrow in N CT-S Ma... that may mt be f interest but it is to me..a possible hilly hazard. Thanks Walt. Try and pop in here to list if time permits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Personally not surprised some models may be attempting to north adjusting as we near. Brookline' and I were discussing last night and those synoptic conjectural aspects are still very much in play. There's a ton of powerful jet max running along S of LI. Previous guidance cycles have been suppressed down around 2.5 or 3 Deg lat below the ideal climate signal for White Plains NY to Bedford MA QPF max, but as we discussed ... if future guidance were to wiggle that axis just a hair, 1.5 N - very doable even in good performance modeling sources at an 84+ hour range - than it's too plausible that we're in for another short range correction toward a light if not moderate up to the Pike. Wiggle more ...adjust more...less, adjust less - talking in terms of the probability layout. I think Walter's been posting those over in his thread efforts in the NYC thread; they may or may be based up this sort of climate approach - in fact I'm entirely certain what constitutes those products ... Anyway, I've been noticing with the RGEM too ... both are filling in QPF to N. PA and S. VT/NH whenever the jet axis ticks N across recent run cycles ... which tentatively offers a realization on this philosophy above. Like I've been saying ...I'm not sold on missing a light to potentially moderate result clipping the S. half of the SNE. It's appears the sensitivity is related to where the W-E axis situates in latitude entirely with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Dim Sun is definitely on the menu here. Maybe even full sun yeah...snark aside, that annotation is in regards to that particular model depiction - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Reggie was a little dryer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Amy thoughts on next week and possible icestorm that was discussed yesterday? Did we lose the cold HP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Practice warming your tushy on the black car seat? Not quite there yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will never forget @wdrag's epic AFD at BOX on the Sunday evening of 3/4/2001....still have it printed and saved somewhere. Best ever. Ugggh that storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah...snark aside, that annotation is in regards to that particular model depiction - Yep. I don't think the NAM will come to fruition, but for the S Coast folks, I hope it does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yep. I don't think the NAM will come to fruition, but for the S Coast folks, I hope it does There will be 1-3” at least up to the Pike 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There will be 1-3” at least up to the Pike Let's bang some Jspin 40 to 1 ratios and get a six pack of air. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah...snark aside, that annotation is in regards to that particular model depiction - Sorry for the OT, but Tip, check out the lee-side low over your old stomping grounds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will never forget @wdrag's epic AFD at BOX on the Sunday evening of 3/4/2001....still have it printed and saved somewhere. Best ever. Show Us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Slightly better on GFS...but not much to show for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will never forget @wdrag's epic AFD at BOX on the Sunday evening of 3/4/2001....still have it printed and saved somewhere. Best ever. The Demon. @TheSnowman 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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