NW_of_GYX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Not what some on the Board want to hear but that warmup way out there in guidance keeps moderating and then cold does reload but this time the core is closer to us in Eastern Canada. Not a frigid look but could work for many. Folks expecting weeks of 2m temps below freezing in coastal SNE have unrealistic expectations of their climo imo. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 If you’re looking for a pattern shakeup compared to the last couple of years, then root for the ensembles at the end of the month. This is the closest to a great pacific pattern we’ve had in a while. But good to remain skeptical until we’re closer. But that’s a look you want to see for big cold/snow threats. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: EPS? Crap? For the 1/19-20 threat it’s been status quo for the most part. There’s a few members still giving a big event but most of them are not. Lots of scrapers too with like 1-2” 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Interesting Reggie... Very interesting...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 33 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Interesting Reggie... Very interesting... Extrapolating the 84hr rgem is always fun 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: If you’re looking for a pattern shakeup compared to the last couple of years, then root for the ensembles at the end of the month. This is the closest to a great pacific pattern we’ve had in a while. But good to remain skeptical until we’re closer. But that’s a look you want to see for big cold/snow threats. 2015 vibes here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 After the mild up things get interesting very fast. Feb for the win this year. Next 8 days of pure winter as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, NW_of_GYX said: Not what some on the Board want to hear but that warmup way out there in guidance keeps moderating and then cold does reload but this time the core is closer to us in Eastern Canada. Not a frigid look but could work for many. Folks expecting weeks of 2m temps below freezing in coastal SNE have unrealistic expectations of their climo imo. Yeah, noticed the cold doesn't come down through the plains but slides east to eastern Canada, we can hopefully tap into that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Extrapolating the 84hr rgem is always fun Actually, the NAM also looks like it is threatening to threaten at 84hrs, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 39 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Actually, the NAM also looks like it is threatening to threaten at 84hrs, lol. You didn't just say that, did you Thanks, I needed a laugh this afternoon after dic*ing around with the old snowblower the last few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kazimirkai Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Wish me luck... Crossed fingers 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said: 2015 vibes here Yeah it’s prob the best PAC look since then. But it still needs to verify and of course the big question is how long would such a look last? In 2015 it was almost a standing wave for 3-4 weeks with a brief break during the Feb 7-9 event where we got lucky anyway and Boston got 2 feet of snow when the rest of the CONUS was an utter furnace. But regardless, it’s nice to see a great PAC look even show up on guidance. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 some of the GEFS members are getting interesting for the end of the week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: some of the GEFS members are getting interesting for the end of the week Beer? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, qg_omega said: Beer? you buying? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 26 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Beer? Hes right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hes right The main forecast challenge for the extended period is Fri into Fri night as digging northern stream shortwave moving into the Gt Lakes tries to capture a coastal low moving off the mid Atlc coast. Still a lot of spread in potential storm track and intensity but consensus of the ensemble suite is the storm remaining far enough offshore for just a glancing blow. However, it`s still day 4 and there are some members with a more significant impact. It will depend on the amplitude of this northern stream shortwave and if it can back the flow enough for a low track closer to SNE. At the very least, a period of light snow is anticipated, with greater probs near the coast, but can`t rule out a more significant impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Extraping the 18z EURO at hr90 vs 12z hr96 at h5, subtle changes but the vort is condensed slightly further west... Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 @40/70 Benchmark you have been touting after 1/20 for over a month. 1/25 and 1/28. Honestly can’t remember a winter with more rain after rain up to Montreal in a very long time. Last winter was light years better than this one in the mountains and it’s not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: @40/70 Benchmark you have been touting after 1/20 for over a month. 1/25 and 1/28. Honestly can’t remember a winter with more rain after rain up to Montreal in a very long tim I hilight two week periods...first one was 1/23 to 2/5 window for a large event. We are going to just whiff on one Friday, then a relaxation before another shot every late January into February. I am happy with my body of work, despite poor snowfall showing near the coast to date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 It's been warmer than I thought so far, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's been warmer than I thought so far, yes. You had 1 to 3 AN for December, average was +6? Some spots +8, many spots warmest December ever? Jan running +6 to +8 so far, sure some cold this week but not huge below normal and we are back above normal to much above normal last 10 days of month. No changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: If you’re looking for a pattern shakeup compared to the last couple of years, then root for the ensembles at the end of the month. This is the closest to a great pacific pattern we’ve had in a while. But good to remain skeptical until we’re closer. But that’s a look you want to see for big cold/snow threats. I'll take my chances with this....and more blocking to follow with the impending wind reversal in the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: You had 1 to 3 AN for December, average was +6? Some spots +8, many spots warmest December ever? Jan running +6 to +8 so far, sure some cold this week but not huge below normal and we are back above normal to much above normal last 10 days of month. No changes It was about +3 to +6 through the mid Atlantic and into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was about +3 to +6 through the mid Atlantic and into SNE. Here is my December analog composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here is my December analog composite. Sorry...misleading. Here is the same scale. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I was definitely significantly too cool in December, but I think everyone was in the same boat on that....and you never issued a map or forecast, so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here is my December analog composite. Zero below normal across CONUS, warmest December ever across large sections of the country, notice analogue chat goes to +5 while December map goes to +10 and large section of country at +10 and off the chart warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hilight two week periods...first one was 1/23 to 2/5 window for a large event. We are going to just whiff on one Friday, then a relaxation before another shot every late January into February. I am happy with my body of work, despite poor snowfall showing near the coast to date. As you should be. Don't give that bozo qg the respect of even answering his post. He doesn't give 2 shits about what you do.... He is just looking to troll and to get the best of you and anyone else who is a Winter enthusiast. I laugh wh never I see his posts now. It's become comical. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was about +3 to +6 through the mid Atlantic and into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now