ORH_wxman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: GGEM looks good for Thursday nite/ Friday More of a south coast special but that was really close to a big one. GFS shot eastward so no help from that model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: A larger event is on life support. Gonna need a move today. Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 hours ago, George001 said: Maybe not, but you can’t punt both Dec and Jan and still end up with a respectable winter. You certainly can, but it's an uphill climb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 38 minutes ago, kdxken said: I'd take 5 days of warmth. Get the golf courses open again. Yeah, if we can dry it out a bit places will be open out here. Hopefully the warmth comes to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 This entire winter has been a furnace, and now we are looking at yet another warmup after the 20th threat leaves a lot on the table. Maybe we can avoid a total rat with a better pattern in Feb/Mar, but let’s call it like it is. So far, the Pope has been right about this winter. We need some changes FAST for 1/20 to salvage this, if that is meh we aren’t getting anywhere near average snowfall. He deserves an apology. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 why I be damned ... the 12z GFS appears to lay in .75" QPF in a frozen column for N ORH CO and S NH... That puts the eastern end of the Rt 2 corridor in a warning event - low end anywho ...Oops! wrong thread 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. No it isnt . See what happened with tomorrow's storm. Still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Slight improvement on 12 GEFS for 1/19-20 but it’s not enough to move the needle much. Only the 12z GGEM has anything really close to a big hit this cycle so far. Looking unlikely we’ll get a major system out of that setup. Close but no cigar. Had the ingredients but just not quite enough separation on the two PV lobes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: More of a south coast special but that was really close to a big one. GFS shot eastward so no help from that model. I meant for a light to moderate event like tonight/ tomorrow. That’s really all this could have been to me anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You certainly can, but it's an uphill climb. From a pure accumulation stand point (like My BY finished with X inches on year ) you could / not likely (thou many aren’t punting January at all ! ) unless they live SE of 95 The initial point of my post it that some talk about a respectable winter with regard to enjoying snowy periods throughout the winter and not just a final accumulation total , I know for your verification and back ended winter ..it’s more the former (Total accumulation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: From a pure accumulation stand point (like My BY finished with X inches on year ) you could / not likely (thou many aren’t punting January at all ) unless they live SE of 95 The initial point of my post it that some talk about a respectable winter with regard to enjoying snowy periods throughout the winter and not just a final accumulation total It cannot be a respectable winter with well AN temps, below normal snow, and no retention when we do get storms. It has been a long time since we had a month straight of snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Okay, ...lunch-time Quarter Backing the end of the week ordeal. I am not totally sure the following hasn't escaped folks' thought processing, but ... we do not have to have idealized subsume phasing and a bomb in order to get a fun/entertaining event for winter enthusiasts. There are plenty of mechanics in play ... the likes of which would not take a lot of unrealistic rearranging to ignite an event ranging from light ( but steady) to moderate/low end major. None of the events within that envelope of possibilities should be ruled out. 1 Very powerful jet core running 1.5 or so deg S of LI is a huge wintertime climate flag for QPF in SNE/CNE. 2 The other aspect that's puzzling to me is ... the period of time in questions seems to either need to be an all out big bird bomb, or, whiff. I'm not sure when factoring in both 1 ... why we are not seeing at least occasional model depictions for a middling event that encompasses up state NY/S-CNE. Perhaps more a philosophical angle on this thing with this point ... but, we seem to be missing that probability set/result in these modeling projects - in fact, I think I've yet to see a 6-8" ALB-BOS/CON result even once - maybe I missed, but that's been rare to this point, nonetheless. Point number 1 screams for it. So I'm prepared to think we just sans the big dawg prospect - in no small part based upon the limitations I spent time explaining yesterday ... - in lieu of the very real probability that a moderate event will materialize out of that mess. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Geps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The seasonal trend, and really any season, is for southern streamers to tick north inside d4. The big Archie event is off the table but we can still manage a warning level event if we keep the low from going over Bermuda. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The seasonal trend, and really any season, is for southern streamers to tick north inside d4. The big Archie event is off the table but we can still manage a warning level event if we keep the low from going over Bermuda. Too early to say Ceiling is high for this one if we get a big phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Okay, ...lunch-time Quarter Backing the end of the week ordeal. I am not totally sure the following hasn't escaped folks' thought processing, but ... we do not have to have idealized subsume phasing and a bomb in order to get a fun/entertaining event for winter enthusiasts. There are plenty of mechanics in play ... the likes of which would not take a lot of unrealistic rearranging to ignite an event ranging from light ( but steady) to moderate/low end major. None of the events within that envelope of possibilities should be ruled out. 1 Very powerful jet core running 1.5 or so deg S of LI is a huge wintertime climate flag for QPF in SNE/CNE. 2 The other aspect that's puzzling to me is ... the period of time in questions seems to either need to be an all out big bird bomb, or, whiff. I'm not sure when factoring in both 1 ... why we are not seeing at least occasional model depictions for a middling event that encompasses up state NY/S-CNE. Perhaps more a philosophical angle on this thing with this point ... but, we seem to be missing that probability set/result in these modeling projects - in fact, I think I've yet to see a 6-8" ALB-BOS/CON result even once - maybe I missed, but that's been rare to this point, nonetheless. Point number 1 screams for it. So I'm prepared to think we just sans the big dawg prospect - in no small part based upon the limitations I spent time explaining yesterday ... - in lieu of the very real probability that a moderate event will materialize out of that mess. This has been my feeling….maybe/probably not a big dog, but that doesn’t mean a decent event can’t morph from this set up. But I was told that I was pretty much wishcasting, and had rose colored glasses on when I said there is so much time to go on this thing yet. But I agree with your ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Too early to say Ceiling is high for this one if we get a big phase. It is not. The KU for NYCATT is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 12zCMC ENS increased over 0zSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It is not. The KU for NYCATT is gone. 6-8 in NYC is a KU this winter and they probably could still manage that out of this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: From a pure accumulation stand point (like My BY finished with X inches on year ) you could / not likely (thou many aren’t punting January at all ! ) unless they live SE of 95 The initial point of my post it that some talk about a respectable winter with regard to enjoying snowy periods throughout the winter and not just a final accumulation total , I know for your verification and back ended winter ..it’s more the former (Total accumulation) Yea, certainly losing a lot of climo winter isn't ideal. I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It is not. The KU for NYCATT is gone. To be fair, it’s not a 0 chance either though Luke. Stranger things have happened many times. Pieces are all there, but I agree with you, I don’t think they all come together the way we would need, and in time for the big one for the area. A decent event is certainly still a possibility though as we’ve discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Too early to say Ceiling is high for this one if we get a big phase. I think the KU potential is about gone. Need to see a big turn around today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The seasonal trend, and really any season, is for southern streamers to tick north inside d4. The big Archie event is off the table but we can still manage a warning level event if we keep the low from going over Bermuda. Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I have to say that after today, I firmly am in the "this winter blows" camp. In my 30+ years of skiing I have never witnessed as bad of conditions in mid-January as I have at Catamount today. For the first time in my life, I asked for a ski voucher after just one run. I was there with my 5-year old son and it was legit a sheet of ice. The "grooming" was lines in an ice rink. I've literally experienced softer ice at an ice rink than I did today. This constant up and down with pouring rain has trashed the little base they have had. Unless it is sustained cold for longer than a week, I don't see how these ski areas can cope. We cannot keep getting these crazy warmups with pouring rain, please just make it stop!! I'd take just cold and no snow over what we have had so far this winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 hours ago, kdxken said: I'd take 5 days of warmth. Get the golf courses open again. Absolutely. Getting into sun angle season too, hopefully everything greens up quickly this Spring with minimal arctic cold and snowcover 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 These past few storms have been like an IV to a dying ski season. Bretton Woods has opened up a ton of terrain, including glades and the T bar. Looks like West Mountain will be opening soon as well, making the entire area accessible. Surface is a bit firm - the snowpack is DENSE but we do have 3-5” of fluffier stuff in the forecast, should be great in the upcoming days. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, alex said: These past few storms have been like an IV to a dying ski season. Bretton Woods has opened up a ton of terrain, including glades and the T bar. Looks like West Mountain will be opening soon as well, making the entire area accessible. Surface is a bit firm - the snowpack is DENSE but we do have 3-5” of fluffier stuff in the forecast, should be great in the upcoming days. Yeah you gotta get up north. Anywhere that received the 2-4 inches of rain the past few weeks is straight up bullet proof ice and firm granular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 31 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: 12zCMC ENS increased over 0z Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk I'd be in favor of anything that doubled my seasonal snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Euro looked a touch better to me for 1/19 looping H5…still a light event verbatim but you can see how it could be more significant with some minor improvements. I don’t think a big dog is going to happen but you could still get a moderate event or even a solid warning event if improvements continue over the next few runs. The danger of course is you trend back worse and then you essentially have no event at all. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 EPS? Crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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