George001 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have said this before, but the "slow crawl" crap doesn't really do much for amounts...it just gives Kevin fuel for his "days and days" rhetoric, but the good news is that he'll do it, regardless. The intense dynamics are exhausted within 12-18 hours, anyway in about 98% of systems. Yeah it can snow a hell of a lot in 12-18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 15 minutes ago, George001 said: Yeah it can snow a hell of a lot in 12-18 hours The best storms are usually banded outside of one 12 hour stretch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z GFS looked like a step back to me. low gets going further offshore. northern energy looked primed to 'subsume' but timing seemed off. maybe due to the western ridge being a bit worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 18z GFS looked like a step back to me. low gets going further offshore. northern energy looked primed to 'subsume' but timing seemed off. maybe due to the western ridge being a bit worse Off hr runs… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, WinterWolf said: Off hr runs… We have a good chance of a big storm due to the NAO going positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: WTTTW. Lol. Luke it’s 5-6 days out….these looks are gonna change 10 times. The hemispheric look isn’t modeled 100% correct at this juncture for 1/20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 OK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: OK This is likely going to be a Nova Scotia or fish storm. It’s good to prepare for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Off hr runs… As opposed to what, though? Not being a jerk just seriously, the options are missed super phase but miasma of snow in the air ( perhaps to moderate), or whiff. I mean we've seen either of those two impact portraits regardless of 12z or 18z or 00z or 06z, over the past 3 days... The only common denominator between all the runs has been velocity of the flow exceeding the phase rate. So that latter can't happen in time. I see this run .. yup, same schtick. There's plenty of time to manifest higher heights over western N/A ...so's we can slow down the flow and allow the dynamic interplay of these features back E, but... supposition: I also suspect some of the velocity issues are everywhere. The hemisphere is just having trouble shortening the Rossby wave lengths overall - in other words, longer ... not taller wave lengths are accessible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Off hr runs… This isn’t a real thing. It’s been said time and time again. Real threat this is a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This is likely going to be a Nova Scotia or fish storm. It’s good to prepare for that Anything can happen. Just close your eyes, raise your hands to the sky, and feel the belief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: OK Do I think it’ll probably be less than memorable…yes I do. But we don’t know this yet. And we don’t know what’s gonna happen with all those moving parts, and how they interact at this time. I mean I guess we can err on the side that it slides east today…but would that be correct.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Finally reach a foot of depth here. Heavy, dense snow except for the top few inches. Good start, just a month or two late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Anything can happen. Just close your eyes, raise your hands to the sky, and feel the belief. Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This isn’t a real thing. It’s been said time and time again. Real threat this is a fish storm. Ya sure..that’s why they are always different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, alex said: Finally reach a foot of depth here. Heavy, dense snow except for the top few inches. Good start, just a month or two late I wonder how it will look after this ... For the record ...I suspect this 18z run is kind of bonkers overall - no trolling intended. I think we are headed for a reload interlude of yet unknown amplitude - but either way, I'm not sure we're sending 582 dm heights to the Del Marva to get that done. We'll see... But just J. H. Christ here. This also hearkens to what I've been saying ( for years really - ) that when the cold air shuts off we seem to almost spring loaded bounce into this outre warm plush across the mid latitudes - or tend to do so. It's been so reproducible over the last 10 years, regardless of whatever discrete or voodoo combination of indexes were doing corrections to unicorns, that I begin to think massive oscillatory behavior is the new norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 No need to check the run. I see bitching and bickering at one another. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder how it will look after this ... For the record ...I suspect this 18z run is kind of bonkers overall - no trolling intended. I think we are headed for a reload interlude of yet unknown amplitude - but either way, I'm not sure we're sending 582 dm heights to the Del Marva to get that done. We'll see... But just J. H. Christ here. This also hearkens to what I've been saying ( for years really - ) that when the cold air shuts off we seem to almost spring loaded bounce into this outre warm plush across the mid latitudes - or tend to do so. It's been so reproducible over the last 10 years, regardless of whatever discrete or voodoo combination of indexes were doing corrections to unicorns, that I begin to think massive oscillatory behavior is the new norm. I have all the respect in the world for those who attempt to predict anything beyond 3-5 days but I’m a data guy and it seems like these time frames are completely voodoo. I don’t believe it when they say cold and super snowy, I don’t believe it when they say bring out the shorts. One day the show one thing, a few days later they show another - in either direction. I’m sure there are metrics out there but empirically they seem close to random chaos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Odds clearly favor minimal impact, so lets get that out of the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Odds clearly favor minimal impact, so lets get that out of the way. Unless you’re forecasting out of Tolland . “Easy 3-6” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 7 minutes ago, alex said: I have all the respect in the world for those who attempt to predict anything beyond 3-5 days but I’m a data guy and it seems like these time frames are completely voodoo. I don’t believe it when they say cold and super snowy, I don’t believe it when they say bring out the shorts. One day the show one thing, a few days later they show another - in either direction. I’m sure there are metrics out there but empirically they seem close to random chaos I'd say the "voodoo range" - statistically - begins around D10, actually ... but in principle, I don't disagree that there's a futility inherent to being very precisely deterministic ( to put it amusingly ..haha) when it comes to a 252 hour time range. But there are techniques - some are better at it than others ... - that give the D6-10 range a bit of an edge over N/S ( no skill). Having said that... fast whip lash flow tendencies because the same speed, makes it almost physically impossible to anchor a pattern in position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 We may just end up needing to wait for the Pacific, if this whiffs.....exhausting hobby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 It’s snowing below 0 in northern Arkansas. That’s something you don’t see every year, this airmass means business. Wonder if it’s some sort of record for that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder how it will look after this ... For the record ...I suspect this 18z run is kind of bonkers overall - no trolling intended. I think we are headed for a reload interlude of yet unknown amplitude - but either way, I'm not sure we're sending 582 dm heights to the Del Marva to get that done. We'll see... But just J. H. Christ here. This also hearkens to what I've been saying ( for years really - ) that when the cold air shuts off we seem to almost spring loaded bounce into this outre warm plush across the mid latitudes - or tend to do so. It's been so reproducible over the last 10 years, regardless of whatever discrete or voodoo combination of indexes were doing corrections to unicorns, that I begin to think massive oscillatory behavior is the new norm. Few have called this, few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We may just end up needing to wait for the Pacific, if this whiffs.....exhausting hobby. I couldn't agree with you more. If we have this much patience with all of this forecasting and waiting, then we can get through anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Few have called this, few Yeah, only a precious few posts regarding GW on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We may just end up needing to wait for the Pacific, if this whiffs.....exhausting hobby. It’s tough because there have been and are a number of chances but still need everything to break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It’s tough because there have been and are a number of chances but still need everything to break right. This is what is so frustrating about seasonal efforts...you can nail all of the large scale hemispheric stuff, but just not have any of the synoptic sets ups pan out so your snowfall effort still ends up looking like shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 39 minutes ago, alex said: I have all the respect in the world for those who attempt to predict anything beyond 3-5 days but I’m a data guy and it seems like these time frames are completely voodoo. I don’t believe it when they say cold and super snowy, I don’t believe it when they say bring out the shorts. One day the show one thing, a few days later they show another - in either direction. I’m sure there are metrics out there but empirically they seem close to random chaos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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