Snowcrazed71 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I am hoping this storm does come together. We really need a big mama of a snow storm ( and yes... Bring on the weenie emojis.... If it means getting the " Big One " I will gladly take them!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I am hoping this storm does come together. We really need a big mama of a snow storm ( and yes... Bring on the weenie emojis.... If it means getting the " Big One " I will gladly take them!! As much as I hate to say it, I feel like we already had our "big one" here on 01/29/22. As much as we want to get another 1978, 1996, or 2005, I feel like after 2022 we will have to wait a while, but hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: They can work but B’s are not ideal. Anyway, I’ve parced through h5 and the angle of attack from the N stream is not conducive for WOR crushers. Doesn’t mean we whiff entirely but I’m not bullish on the pattern the way Brooklyn and some others are. Some are. Some aren’t. But fair enough. The two monster ones in Jan 11 were B’s. 78 was a B. Feb 13 was a B. But that whole h5 look is subject to error too. It’s a good look in general is the bigger picture/take away. How all these moving parts coalesce and morph is the key, and that won’t be known for many days. I agree, it’s probably more moderate than a big dog, but the potential is there. And that’s how all the big boys start out. So we watch and we track. At least we have some irons in the fire at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 20 minutes ago, WJX231 said: I want a 1978 redux just once in my lifetime. 2005 was the biggest one that I can remember, although 1996 was apparently up there also. Closest system we have had to it was Feb 2013...shifted sw a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Closest system we have had to it was Feb 2013...shifted sw a bit. Yep that was a big one too. I feel like relative to climo, we've actually had a lot of big dogs in recent decades. 1996, 2005, 2013, 2015, 2022. Maybe I'm wrong but it seems like kind of an anomaly that we have had this many in recent years. How many storms of that magnitude happened in the decades prior? Maybe we are due for a dry spell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, WJX231 said: Yep that was a big one too. I feel like relative to climo, we've actually had a lot of big dogs in recent decades. 1996, 2005, 2013, 2015, 2022. Maybe I'm wrong but it seems like kind of an anomaly that we have had this many in recent years. How many storms of that magnitude happened in the decades prior? Maybe we are due for a dry spell? Well, it goes both ways...I think CC is also tied into this, not just warmer weather and steeper gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, it goes both ways...I think CC is also tied into this, not just warmer weather and steeper gradients. Oh absolutely CC is definitely a factor. Patterns are not what they used to be, although sooner or later we may get another bad snow stretch like the 80s. A foot of snow was huge for people back in that time. Nowadays, people my age act like 2013 type storms happen a lot more than they really do. Their bias is warped. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, WJX231 said: Oh absolutely CC is definitely a factor. Patterns are not what they used to be, although sooner or later we may get another bad snow stretch like the 80s. A foot of snow was huge for people back in that time. Nowadays, people my age act like 2013 type storms happen a lot more than they really do. Their bias is warped. Well, I think we are in an 80's stretch now...sure, we had Jan 2022, just like we had December 1981, Feb 1983, March 1984 and January 1987....hell, I think there was even a cape blizzard in like 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 16 minutes ago, WJX231 said: Yep that was a big one too. I feel like relative to climo, we've actually had a lot of big dogs in recent decades. 1996, 2005, 2013, 2015, 2022. Maybe I'm wrong but it seems like kind of an anomaly that we have had this many in recent years. How many storms of that magnitude happened in the decades prior? Maybe we are due for a dry spell? You’re also forgetting TWO in January of 2011. Also Feb 2006. March of 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I think we are in an 80's stretch now...sure, we had Jan 2022, just like we had December 1981, Feb 1983, March 1984 and January 1987....hell, I think there was even a cape blizzard in like 1989. I guess it just seems like I've seen a lot more big ones here in SEMA than people in CT see. Not sure if its always been like that? Jan 2022 was PVD's 4th biggest on record, after 1978, 1996, and 2005. I mean, I can definitely see us still getting a decent number of 12" storms here but 18"+ inch storms seem like they've been a lot more common here than it should be. Don't get me wrong, I hope that we keep getting big ones here, it just seems like we've been living high on the hog for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, WJX231 said: I guess it just seems like I've seen a lot more big ones here in SEMA than people in CT see. Not sure if its always been like that? Jan 2022 was PVD's 4th biggest on record, after 1978, 1996, and 2005. I mean, I can definitely see us still getting a decent number of 12" storms here but 18"+ inch storms seem like they've been a lot more common here than it should be. Don't get me wrong, I hope that we keep getting big ones here, it just seems like we've been living high on the hog for a while now. Well, you don't have to tell me how lucky se MA has been. I haven't sniffed normal snowfall in 6 years. I don't even think I pulled that off in the 80s...but the rats were worse. I have avoided any real abysmal rats in this stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: You’re also forgetting TWO in January of 2011. Also Feb 2006. March of 2018. Eh, all four of those were footers though. Still big for sure, just not like 1996, 2005, 2013 level. Footers are definitely much more common. It seems like we avreage at least one every few years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You’re also forgetting TWO in January of 2011. Also Feb 2006. March of 2018. Dec 2019 N of pike and inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, WJX231 said: Eh, all four of those were footers though. Still big for sure, just not like 1996, 2005, 2013 level. Footers are definitely much more common. It seems like we avreage at least one every few years or so. Nah..I had over 30" in 2018. Feb 2006 was well over a foot most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, you don't have to tell me how lucky se MA has been. I haven't sniffed normal snowfall in 6 years. I don't even think I pulled that off in the 80s...but the rats were worse. I have avoided any real abysmal rats in this stretch. Yeah, but like thats what I'm saying. Maybe it's our turn to pay the piper here and your luck will change soon. Everything evens out eventually with climate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dec 2019 an of pike and inland. Yup. And Jan of 18 had a good one..it was a monster of a storm, just a little too far out to the east, but got the area good anyway. But had that backed in just a little more…it would have been a monster for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, WinterWolf said: Yup. And Jan of 18 had a good one..it was a monster of a storm, just a little too far out to the east, but got the area good anyway. But had that backed in just a little more…it would have been a monster for SNE. Jan 2018 was LBSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, WJX231 said: Eh, all four of those were footers though. Still big for sure, just not like 1996, 2005, 2013 level. Footers are definitely much more common. It seems like we avreage at least one every few years or so. Not here bro..the first one in January was 22” here, the second was 18” here. Feb 2006 was was 20-22” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jan 2018 was LBSW. Was out to the east too..but it was a huge storm out there. Just saying that it was a big strong system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I think we are in an 80's stretch now...sure, we had Jan 2022, just like we had December 1981, Feb 1983, March 1984 and January 1987....hell, I think there was even a cape blizzard in like 1989. Thanksgiving 89... I was lucky enough to be there for the holiday. Forecast for a dusting to an inch in the AM... ended up somewhere about 17 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Was out to the east too..but it was a huge storm out there. Just saying that it was a big strong system. Main limitation for snowfall here was occlusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Main limitation for snowfall here was occlusion. I just remember the local TV Mets saying that had it backed a little closer(and the satellite imagery was very impressive..I think I took a picture of it lol) it would have been a real whopper. But then again I’m SW of your area, so that makes sense too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Thanksgiving 89... I was lucky enough to be there for the holiday. Forecast for a dusting to an inch in the AM... ended up somewhere about 17 inches Yup…even back here thanksgiving of 89 was a real nice storm…snow all morning and early afternoon, with about 6-8” of accumulation. Really Blew up for the cape though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Euro still not consolidated to a classic look. That s/w in the Midwest is acting to cause an inverted trough feature by Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 13 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Thanksgiving 89... I was lucky enough to be there for the holiday. Forecast for a dusting to an inch in the AM... ended up somewhere about 17 inches had thunder snow in that one in Easton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro still not consolidated to a classic look. That s/w in the Midwest is acting to cause an inverted trough feature by Philly. We see the inverted trough idea many times to mean it’s morphing/trying to figure out what it should do…a preliminary solution so to speak. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro still not consolidated to a classic look. That s/w in the Midwest is acting to cause an inverted trough feature by Philly. Any trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, WinterWolf said: We see the inverted trough idea many times to mean it’s morphing/trying to figure out what it should do…a preliminary solution so to speak. Exactly. Like is that really likely to happen in that way that is being portrayed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: We see the inverted trough idea many times to mean it’s morphing/trying to figure out what it should do…a preliminary solution so to speak. Usually, but it can be the final solution....given the range, probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Look at the game being played out in the PAC with that Rex block. Shortwaves are being flipped right and left, absorbed and pushed through that before our wave hits the conus. Gonna be lots of changes up to 3 day window here each run . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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