40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh, I said that backward... let me fix that. The thermal wind vector increases, the velocity of the geostrophic wind increases, and that Coriolis parameter can no longer force the flow to curve in time - the centrifugal ( g-force) over comes the curvature imposition of the Coriolis effect. That's what opens the flow - fuck. I correct that. The Coriolis parameter has time in the function... here, I just grabbed this right quick off of Wiki' The rotation rate of the Earth (Ω = 7.2921 × 10−5 rad/s) can be calculated as 2π / T radians per second, where T is the rotation period of the Earth which is one sidereal day (23 h 56 min 4.1 s).[2] In the midlatitudes, the typical value for f is about 10−4 rad/s. Inertial oscillations on the surface of the Earth have this frequency. These oscillations are the result of the Coriolis effect. anyway, it's simple - lower the god damn gradient so the Coriolis can curve the flow. Trust me, I didn't notice lol...basically what I was getting at was lower se heights and the velocity decreases. A more stout PNA rice should accomplish that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: And were not interested in the Canadian. Lol I never discount anything entirely. Just add it to the mix but obviously less weight than Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I never discount anything entirely. Just add it to the mix but obviously less weight than Euro and GFS. Agreed. I was just being funny. agree For sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: # 10 isn't bad, either. See - without even looking at this product, 1978 is in there. I'm tellin you guys - big big dawg is being poked. Not sure we can wake it up in time. With all this speed shearing and forcing this thing to open ... It's offsetting the time it needs to "couple" to the planetary curvature/Coriolis ( that's really what it is...). The dy/dt is the N-->S component velocity of the SPV piece. The dx/dt is the W-->E component of the S/stream S/W. When the ratio of these two are compared to the time constraint of the Coriolis parameter, ...I bet you dimes to donuts that needs to be closer to proportionate for determining phase proficiency. wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: See - without even looking at this product, 1978 is in there. I'm tellin you guys - big big dawg is being poked. Not sure we can wake it up in time. With all this speed shearing and forcing this thing to open ... offsetting the time it needs to "couple" to the planetary curvature/Coriolis ( that's really what it is...). The dy/dt is the N-->S component velocity of the SPV piece. The dx/dt is the W-->E component of the S/stream S/W. When the ratio of these two are compared to the time constraint of the Coriolis parameter, ...I bet you dimes to donuts that needs to be closer to proportionate for determining phase proficiency. wow So what you’re saying, is this won’t have time to come together to be something memorable for NE…? Right? I’m trying to parse’ through the technical intricacies, that I’m ignorant to, and understand that what you’re saying is, no bueno for a big dog. ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The rotation rate of the Earth (Ω = 7.2921 × 10−5 rad/s) can be calculated as 2π / T radians per second, where T is the rotation period of the Earth which is one sidereal day (23 h 56 min 4.1 s).[2] In the midlatitudes, the typical value for f is about 10−4 rad/s. Inertial oscillations on the surface of the Earth have this frequency. These oscillations are the result of the Coriolis effect. Everyone gets this, right? Actually, I see that you refer to it as the Coriolis effect, and not Coriolis force. I've heard that before from a non-met scientist, who would get indignant when it was referred to as a "force". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: See - without even looking at this product, 1978 is in there. I'm tellin you guys - big big dawg is being poked. Not sure we can wake it up in time. With all this speed shearing and forcing this thing to open ... It's offsetting the time it needs to "couple" to the planetary curvature/Coriolis ( that's really what it is...). The dy/dt is the N-->S component velocity of the SPV piece. The dx/dt is the W-->E component of the S/stream S/W. When the ratio of these two are compared to the time constraint of the Coriolis parameter, ...I bet you dimes to donuts that needs to be closer to proportionate for determining phase proficiency. wow 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Tip gone wild with equations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Everyone gets this, right? Hi, me Ray....I like snow long time. Me see snow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hi, me Ray....I like snow long time. Me see snow? We so snowy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, CoastalWx said: We so snowy? For 20-dollah? If only...get the student loan apps ready, kids- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 24 minutes ago, Heisy said: #1 on the list… just gonna leave this here. Not saying that’s going to happen obviously, just pointing out the pattern is def good lol . Jan96 is still king for me. Yes please. My concern is the late development/escape east. This potential looks more miller B. Those scare the WOR team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Ukie bombs in similar location to GFSIt’s slightly farther E than GFs but it took a step l vs previous runs…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Yea this is headed for another EMATT special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Jan96 is still king for me. Yes please. My concern is the late development/escape east. This potential looks more miller B. Those scare the WOR team. Yes...1978 is a more valid analog in that regard, not that we are getting 2-3'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea this is headed for another EMATT special. OR NSATT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea this is headed for another EMATT special. Ehh, I’d feel better if I was in Nova Scotia for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Ehh, I’d feel better if I was in Nova Scotia for this one Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: OR NSATT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Jan '96 was good where I was in Wilmington...about 18", but where I am now it was a nightmare...sharp gradient to like 5" of sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Seems to be a good trend from 00z on the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Seems to be a good trend from 00z on the GEFS. There seems to be more late bloomers on the 12z GEFS. The mean has the low well east of us but a bunch of westward individual members keep popping near the BM. You can see it below at 138 hours the distribution looks pretty typical, but then fast forward 12 hours and you see all those late bloomers back there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Trust me, I didn't notice lol...basically what I was getting at was lower se heights and the velocity decreases. A more stout PNA rice should accomplish that. It could. I'm really using thought experimental logic to explain what/were the limitations are. As far as "fixing" this thing? haha. Yeah. I think of this way... the heights over the S-SE seem to roll along by a different wave function/planetary forcing, and may or may not be in sync with what's going on over top ( above say ... 35 N). Here, I can draw a quick and dirty illustration to explain this pictorally This happening at varying scales ...etc, this is just a illustration to bring the point ... If you can imaggine this "Quasi independently" caused height wall in the S to be oriented opposite of that implied wave signature, than there is less compression --> less +d(v) in the flow entering, which then allows more curvature to take place sooner with less shearing... What the flow may actually look like, while the above is happening, doesn't necessarily reflect - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, ORH_wxman said: There seems to be more late bloomers on the 12z GEFS. The mean has the low well east of us but a bunch of westward individual members keep popping near the BM. You can see it below at 138 hours the distribution looks pretty typical, but then fast forward 12 hours and you see all those late bloomers back there Luke likes to see that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So what you’re saying, is this won’t have time to come together to be something memorable for NE…? Right? I’m trying to parse’ through the technical intricacies, that I’m ignorant to, and understand that what you’re saying is, no bueno for a big dog. ? Not saying it won't - ...just as is, the models that show this 'not in time' aspect are likely suffering from the discussion points at hand. But these are virtual projections. The models may be handling the flow over the continent wrong, too - so they could be too fast. there's moving parts to this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 LOL sorry guys. slow Sunday ... I need it, anyway. fun stuff over fixing legacy code all week - ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes...1978 is a more valid analog in that regard, not that we are getting 2-3'. Yea. This will be lighter and a later capture. I’ll take whatever but nao dominated patterns are overrated. Tap me on my shoulder when/if Feb becomes Pac driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Jan96 is still king for me. Yes please. My concern is the late development/escape east. This potential looks more miller B. Those scare the WOR team. We’ve had plenty of miller B’s crush us here. I don’t fear them, just need it to come together quick enough. Not a bad spot to be at 6 days out though. We track and enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I want a 1978 redux just once in my lifetime. 2005 was the biggest one that I can remember, although 1996 was apparently up there also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. This will be lighter and a later capture. I’ll take whatever but nao dominated patterns are overrated. Tap me on my shoulder when/if Feb becomes Pac driven. I don’t even think we can know what, or when, or if anything captures, or if these current ideas even stand up 3-4,days from now. This has alot of moving parts, and will be jostling and moving around a lot, as we move forward. Buckle up, it’s gone be a bumpy ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We’ve had plenty of miller B’s crush us here. I don’t fear them, just need it to come together quick enough. Not a bad spot to be at 6 days out though. We track and enjoy. They can work but B’s are not ideal. Anyway, I’ve parced through h5 and the angle of attack from the N stream is not conducive for WOR crushers. Doesn’t mean we whiff entirely but I’m not bullish on the pattern the way Brooklyn and some others are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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