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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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  On 1/11/2024 at 4:16 PM, RDRY said:

I'd be fascinated to see how today's forecast models would handle the March Superstorm a week out.

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I think it would be handled differently…just in the aspect that the models are So Sensitive now, they weren’t 30 yrs ago. That’s my take. I think the sensitivity now is what has a lot to do with some of the jumping around compared to before..

 

Sure, It would no doubt sniff it out. But How consistent would be interesting to see? 

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  On 1/11/2024 at 4:16 PM, RDRY said:

I'd be fascinated to see how today's forecast models would handle the March Superstorm a week out.

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Storm of the Century marked a milestone in the weather forecasting of the United States. By March 8, 1993, several operational numerical weather prediction models and medium-range forecasters at the United States National Weather Service recognized the threat of a significant snowstorm. This marked the first time National Weather Service meteorologists were able to predict accurately a system's severity five days in advance

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  On 1/11/2024 at 4:42 PM, WinterWolf said:

It’s one run. And of course it’s always track dependent…no matter if it’s below zero or not, you know that. 

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Everyone should... but so many forget lol. That verbatim would make many happy however, lets see how many more dozen times it morphs around now

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  On 1/11/2024 at 4:44 PM, UnitedWx said:

Everyone should... but so many forget lol. That verbatim would make many happy however, lets see how many more dozen times it morphs around now

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Yes sir. Ya that’s a good hit right there for most.  If That takes an ever so slightly more east track, then it’s game on for the coast too.  

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  On 1/11/2024 at 4:50 PM, dryslot said:

I've been on these boards a very long time and yet the hear someone say, "Boy, The CMC really nailed this one"..............:lol:

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Right…it isn’t very good at all. Agreed.
 

And if it does have the right idea, it’ll flop around after that, and look different by the time the storm arrives. It’s always lost. 

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