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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Snowy Euro run and not done yet.

Next weekend could easily go back to ugly, but despite the gfs op the gefs looked a little flatter. Probably some more favorable members, esp up there. 

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Still not very hopeful for 1/10 south of about dendrite but maybe it trends just a bit more. 
 

1/13 could still end up a lot better. But that storm could also but rains to Maine. High stakes. 

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35 minutes ago, dryslot said:

floop-ecmwf_full-2024010612.sn10_024h-imp.us_ne.gif

So we are back to a decent front end dump. And then the 13th. Good to see those big totals showing up now two days in a row. I was ready to throw in the towel in the 10th. I’m actually out of the country until the 15th anyhow, but I could come back to fix snow pack and more storms 

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21 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Next seasons wood?

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Yep, the lighter colored stuff on the right hand side has been done in the past month or two. Good jump on next year with the weather the way it's been.

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And while not brutally/historically cold, that's an interestingly sustained negative anomaly going from the NP/GL/NE regions, simultaneously while the GFS figures out how to cut storm west.   It just seems like we're staring at modeling amplitude biases doing that, particularly when the western limb -NAO variant keeps re-materializing in the means - should back drill lower heights and a NW flow right where the oper versions keep butting heads with that signal. 

I'm not sold on that traffic routing with those cyclones...

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In my opinion both the 10th and 13th are cutting. Yeah we have blocking but those storms are crashing into the Pacific Northwest. When energy is crashing into the Pacific Northwest, it dives south and goes neutral over the plains. Then it goes negative over the Midwest. When the trough goes negative, storms WILL gain latitude. 

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2 hours ago, George001 said:

In my opinion both the 10th and 13th are cutting. Yeah we have blocking but those storms are crashing into the Pacific Northwest. When energy is crashing into the Pacific Northwest, it dives south and goes neutral over the plains. Then it goes negative over the Midwest. When the trough goes negative, storms WILL gain latitude. 

10th yes... 14th i wouldn't put money on it either way at this point.  The current GFS is certainly different... better if you will regarding the 14th than 24 hours 

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