dendrite Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: If that biblical 2nd cutter works out, wow! ELE? The first cutter’s the deepest 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 48 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: wow, speechless Meh’ if it happens, there won’t be any trees to take down after Wednesday anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Looks like qsmegma and pope will be making a return to the board early this week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 25 minutes ago, butterfish55 said: Looks like qsmegma and pope will be making a return to the board early this week Torch Tiger will double or triple his posting efforts as well 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Torch Tiger will double or triple his posting efforts as wellThey've had a few days off so their fingers will be well rested 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 25 minutes ago, butterfish55 said: Looks like qsmegma and pope will be making a return to the board early this week Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Torch Tiger will double or triple his posting efforts as well Yeah the post count is going to look like a sine wave most likely if ensemble guidance is any indication. Very little during the snowstorm and then a big spike during the cutter (perhaps two if 1/13 cuts) then back down again as pattern really goes colder with potential snow threats. We’ll return for verification in a couple weeks. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the post count is going to look like a sine wave most likely if ensemble guidance is any indication. Very little during the snowstorm and then a big spike during the cutter (perhaps two if 1/13 cuts) then back down again as pattern really goes colder with potential snow threats. We’ll return for verification in a couple weeks. Yeah, I can tell how the models look before looking at them just by seeing who’s posting. If I see Torch Tiger making a bunch of posts about how excited he is for the upcoming pattern, I know it’s about to get really warm with flooding rains. Imo both 1/10 and 1/13 are cooked down here, but NNE could do well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 From GYX AFD for the 10th: The system`s cold front/occlusion reaching the coast will likely kick off secondary cyclogenesis there, providing a mechanism to support a CAD in the western Maine mountains and lakes/foothills region southeast of the mountains... at least initially. Overall I`m expecting this to be a more wintry storm than other strong, dynamic storms experienced this season thus far with some real winners (foot-plus) possible across the mountains in terms of snowfall. But, there still remains potential for heavy rainfall rates which could lead to some hydrological issues...and significant uncertainty as to how the rain/snow line will develop. It appears as though winds will again be a widespread concern, though perhaps not to the degree (and very likely not to the duration) of Dec 18. This is certainly the storm to track for widespread, significant impacts during this forecast period. Stay tuned. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Actually great conditions on the groomers today 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The only operational run from 00z that actually looks like a reasonably correlation/fit for their ensemble mean is the GGEM. The operational Euro and GFS are almost completely out of phase with their own ensemble mean. This is can be pointed out via numerical telecon, or illustrated just observing the 500 mb total hemispheric geo-potential anomalies distribution ... right out through 360 hours. What all that means is that either the operational runs are wrong. The ensemble means are wrong. Or, they both are, and that reality will blend them. If it is this latter option, how much or how less? Basically, very low skill. Despite the demonstrative and seemingly beady-eyed persistence to drive Lakes cutters ( oper versions) into a -NAO exertion ( ens means), the actual deterministic value there is questionable. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: wow, speechless Typically, when you see ops guidance cranking out all-time SLP records at these timeframes, you toss it. But, the ensembles and atmospheric dynamics at play support it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: For the 13-14th system? 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: For the 13-14th system? More so beyond that....but I haven't been focused on long term much this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Could be a nice week for ski country if things shake out half decent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Could be a nice week for ski country if things shake out half decent I don’t know…..looks ugly to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don’t know…..looks ugly to me. Really? Should be plenty of thump north, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Really? Should be plenty of thump north, no? Well first one they’ll be some before downpours. Maybe the next one too? Both systems are ugly imo. Hopefully the snow on the front end helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well first one they’ll be some before downpours. Maybe the next one too? Both systems are ugly imo. Hopefully the snow on the front end helps. Bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 heights out west are trending a lot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Bummer It could go either way. Some cutters have been great to get glades and steep terrain open - the heavy wet snow makes for a great base, and up here it’s usually followed by upslope to create a nice layered “heavy bottom fluffy top”. Of course if the rain is heavy or very warm and all the snow gets washed off, it’s no bueno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: heights out west are trending a lot better Looks like GEFS was dead wrong all 3 ensembles agree now on at least a transient pna , decaying monster nao and trough in east Jan 15-20.. maybe our first window for a KU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Looks like GEFS was dead wrong all 3 ensembles agree now on at least a transient pna , decaying monster nao and trough in east Jan 15-20.. maybe our first window for a KU i mean... this is pretty awesome. the GEFS looking like this now is big. it was the holdout before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, das said: Typically, when you see ops guidance cranking out all-time SLP records at these timeframes, you toss it. But, the ensembles and atmospheric dynamics at play support it. Oh yeah, it's way out there, just interesting to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Looks like GEFS was dead wrong all 3 ensembles agree now on at least a transient pna , decaying monster nao and trough in east Jan 15-20.. maybe our first window for a KU I posted in the NYC forum we knew back on 12/28 that 1/6-7 was favorable before 1/8-1/15 likely sucked, we now know 1/17-18 probably is favorable before 1/22-1/30 likely sucks...maybe they suck less if the MJO is weaker more like the EPS or even HALFWAY to the EPS vs the GEFS but I think for places down in SW CT and back to NJ getting snow from something there is a must or this winter is probably gonna average below normal for sure, won't be easy to even get NYC to 27-30 inches if its 0 as of 1/20 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro looks good for elevations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Euro looks good for elevations Euro verbatim is probably a net gainer for most anyone north of the New England Mason-Dixon Line (the northern Mass border). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 let's get that little clipper to blow up in the aftermath of the cutter and shift the baroclinic zone southeast for the next one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Snowy Euro run and not done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Can you post a 24 hour total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Can you post a 24 hour total? Of what 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, powderfreak said: Of what 24 hours? For the 13th/14th part. If possible. it looks like even the 10th could drop a few inches before it rains here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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