Ginx snewx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hmmmm.. not still smilin “ ? Ear to ear today brother. You see glasses half empty and that's cool. I look at my full beer and say man this is going to be good. Enjoy the snow while you can and don't worry about the rest of the year. Better to have lost than never had I believe you said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EC storms don’t have any impacts to midwesterners so they likely don’t even look. Screamers and EC storms both affect us so we care about both. Huge difference It’s all relative bro. As Will said and others said, the cutter can shift 2-300 miles and it’s still a cutter for us(but it has huge impacts for the folks in the lakes and midwest when it shifts that much). And that’s all ya need to know. A snowstorm for us on the east coast doesn’t have that wiggle room. Move it 200 miles west and it’s a cutter here again. Move it 200 miles east and it’s a snowstorm for us. Very small window for error here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: To be fair, I haven't been looking long term much this week with the impending storm. The PNA not responding as hoped/expected is more of a risk than a strong PV, agreed....I guess if that were to happen, then hope you are far enough north to avail of the blocking. People forget how many great years featured a neg PNA. Odd they clue on that and ignore the negative EPO AO NAO solid signals on teleconnections. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 33 minutes ago, dendrite said: Imagine you live in Chicago and tell me whether it shifted the past couple of days or not. Yea...perception....look at all of the people bashing the models on social media last night and today...most from southern PA, MD and NJ/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ear to ear today brother. You see glasses half empty and that's cool. I look at my full beer and say man this is going to be good. Enjoy the snow while you can and don't worry about the rest of the year. Better to have lost than never had I believe you said. This is an issue I have and I fully admit. I’ll enjoy the snow all day Sunday, but it’s tarnished and not as enjoyable knowing it’s all a dream by Tuesday night . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: People forget how many great years featured a neg PNA. Odd they clue on that and ignore the negative EPO AO NAO solid signals on teleconnections. Its the obsession over the tendency for blocks to be displaced southward....while its important to remain mindful of it, you need to be careful about dismissing the notion of blocking and assuming that will continue to be the case moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 42 minutes ago, dendrite said: Imagine you live in Chicago and tell me whether it shifted the past couple of days or not. They always get porked. It's been pulling teeth there to get a decent storm last few years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is an issue I have and I fully admit. I’ll enjoy the snow all day Sunday, but it’s tarnished and not as enjoyable knowing it’s all a dream by Tuesday night . I lived too many years just like this but am much happier now that I don't. Embrace enjoying each moment, whatever they may bring, and make the most of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They always get porked. It's been pulling teeth there to get a decent storm last few years. It has to be tough being a snow weenie over landlocked terrain and having to rely on the luck of the track. We at least have a permanent natural baroclinic zone to work with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 You need a lot more things to go right for snow, Don't need very many for rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Ear to ear today brother. You see glasses half empty and that's cool. I look at my full beer and say man this is going to be good. Enjoy the snow while you can and don't worry about the rest of the year. Better to have lost than never had I believe you said. Beer? At 9:00AM? Been a while since I've done that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Beer? At 9:00AM? Been a while since I've done that Might explain his posts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Looks like we would recover our snow on the 13th, Next opportunity after the 10th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Re the 10th: the last 4 or so cycles kept carving the trough bottom SE in the operational GFS. I haven't been looking at ens due to personal energy budget issues and being sick of it all for a little while... As of the 12z rendition this morning ... that's already moving a wind max and associated PV field under L.I. The surface position with a fanned out gunk warm sector failure look is purely a function of failing surface high pressure and colder BL resistance mechanics - there's no resistance, no Miller B The hemisphere just didn't time well with that trough. If there was more CAD and high up there, drilling any trough bottom and wind max under one's latitude would likely result in a different reality than what you are seeing in that model's cinema. I still think we are heading in the right direction for the 13-16th. If one has to be told not to hold onto any one model solution from this range than they really should change engagements to save the quality of their lives... The pro is that we have a shit ton of cold air across southern Canada by then, with spill over episodes. Troughs moving by NW will likely tend to tilt their veritical vortex structures and send that "SWFLow" type system result. But it's not abundantly clear troughs will all do that in that time span. Con, they seem to be trying to do so overnight because the -NAO blocking was repositioned ( think Charlie Brown) just enough to allow a storm track to curl NW earlier on. That could go the other way. If the NAO does take the ball away then we suffer the cold roll-out into rain alternation deal, though. I'm not thinking that happens at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like we would recover our snow on the 13th, Next opportunity after the 10th. And then gone again. Pattern blows. Congrats Vancouver Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 We will go cold and dry thereafter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And then gone again. Pattern blows. Congrats Vancouver Canada. if you’re looking at the GFS, sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 prob shouldn’t be using OP runs, but there’s a big disparity here I feel like the CMC makes more sense synoptically, but who knows at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: prob shouldn’t be using OP runs, but there’s a big disparity here I feel like the CMC makes more sense synoptically, but who knows at this point Just look at the NAO region. If we don’t retrograde that block like the GGEM shows, then we’re gonna be be a cutter-happy pattern where maybe we squeeze out a SWFE if we get a well-timed high, but largely a much more hostile pattern. The NAO is the key to having a good mid-month pattern. Models have been flip-flopping on that block….I’m not going to be optimistic until there is good agreement it retrogrades. If you can retrograde it well west like that, then it’s a really good pattern. Otherwise we’re probably gonna be much warmer and on the wrong side of a lot of systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Just look at the NAO region. If we don’t retrograde that block like the GGEM shows, then we’re gonna be be a cutter-happy pattern where maybe we squeeze out a SWFE if we get a well-timed high, but largely a much more hostile pattern. The NAO is the key to having a good mid-month pattern. Models have been flip-flopping on that block….I’m not going to be optimistic until there is good agreement it retrogrades. If you can retrograde it well west like that, then it’s a really good pattern. Otherwise we’re probably gonna be much warmer and on the wrong side of a lot of systems. at the same time, i think the lack of retrogression on the GFS is due to the fact that it buries everything out west and you don’t have that final wave break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: prob shouldn’t be using OP runs, but there’s a big disparity here I feel like the CMC makes more sense synoptically, but who knows at this point The GEM looks like a demon sticking its tongue out at Pope and QQanon. These are really different outcome for 50million+ people. The nature of the NAO seems to be the entire ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: at the same time, i think the lack of retrogression on the GFS is due to the fact that it buries everything out west and you don’t have that final wave break Do model suite tendencies give us any clue? I thought it was the Euro that liked to bury energy in the SW, but maybe that was before the "upgrade." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Also a pretty huge difference between EPS and GEFS. GEFS don’t ever really show a good pattern and reloads the big western Canada PV type pattern at the end of its run. The EPS seems to have a lot more El Niño influence and doesn’t have that. It also retrogrades the NAO block better. But there’s differences in the N PAC too…it has a low out in the GOA underneath the EPO/WPO block (seen below) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Also a pretty huge difference between EPS and GEFS. GEFS don’t ever really show a good pattern and reloads the big western Canada PV type pattern at the end of its run. The EPS seems to have a lot more El Niño influence and doesn’t have that. It also retrogrades the NAO block better. But there’s differences in the N PAC too…it has a low out in the GOA underneath the EPO/WPO block (seen below) So it is a bit of the GEFS vs. the GEM and EPS? Sort of I guess. EPS in between? That would be cold and dry if it stays that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Most of Maine is in trouble again . Hopefully they prepare this time and get out of state crews in CMP I know didn't bring anybody in until after it was already underway/after the fact. Depending on rain flooding was by far the more consequential thing from the pre-xmas storm. Up by camp in Rangeley there is a lot of damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Also a pretty huge difference between EPS and GEFS. GEFS don’t ever really show a good pattern and reloads the big western Canada PV type pattern at the end of its run. The EPS seems to have a lot more El Niño influence and doesn’t have that. It also retrogrades the NAO block better. But there’s differences in the N PAC too…it has a low out in the GOA underneath the EPO/WPO block (seen below) Are we talking into Feb with the garbage look or are we looking to turn around regardless there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, amc said: CMP I know didn't bring anybody in until after it was already underway/after the fact. Depending on rain flooding was by far the more consequential thing from the pre-xmas storm. Up by camp in Rangeley there is a lot of damage. Sure there was wind, But the largest impacts was Snow melt and rain with washouts and flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Are we talking into Feb with the garbage look or are we looking to turn around regardless there? that western trough should retrograde into the typical Aleutian Low for Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The answer is really just simple math…. True, also many of our snowstorms are Miller b or late-developers which models will struggle with putting pieces together, while generally cutters are fully formed and mature way south and west of us so it's less moving parts coming together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just adding to Will's post above ... ...the GEFs seem to be trying to lean more GEPy on this 12z mean, as already by D9 we see a more western limb -NAO expression .. .even merging with the eastern extension of the EPO domain. Heh, you know, I've always wondered if there should be a mid Canada ( >60 N) teleconnector domain defined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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