qg_omega Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Do you see a mild risk towards months end with the mjo? I have my doubts we see a sustainable +pna in February with how bad it’s been lately I have no hope in any +PNA in Feb, I have no care on what past El Nino's have produced given our background state has changed with the expanse of warmth in the pacific and AGW. We no longer have the temperature gradients of past events, this makes many analogs very suspect. Lets be real, we have punted all of December and all of Jan (inland and mountains look to receive a few inches before going back to zero in the cutter). This was very much a thread the needle event as the "cold" is very fleeting and we have a strung out S/W pretty well timed. However, the NYC steak of 700+ with under an inch of snow will continue and those near the coast will receive zero. I will likely hit my post limit after this so I will not be able to respond, if someone can remove my limit given I have been on these boards since inception and do not engage in personal attacks, that would be appreciative. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, "hard to get to normal" isn't necessarily ratter. Hmmmm.. not still smilin “ ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 26 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I guess that’s the fear, next week is cutters then we go cold dry between 15th-18th before the pattern resets. I don’t like how the ensembles are pulling the trough back after the tpv swings through in the extended. At the very least I don’t see some pac ext which would lead to pac puke invading the country. We should keep the cold anomalies in the west. For an east coast snowstorm don’t we want the tpv south? It seems lately it has been a meat grinder and not playing nice in the few times it has swung through To be fair, I haven't been looking long term much this week with the impending storm. The PNA not responding as hoped/expected is more of a risk than a strong PV, agreed....I guess if that were to happen, then hope you are far enough north to avail of the blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I have no hope in any +PNA in Feb, I have no care on what past El Nino's have produced given our background state has changed with the expanse of warmth in the pacific and AGW. We no longer have the temperature gradients of past events, this makes many analogs very suspect. Lets be real, we have punted all of December and all of Jan (inland and mountains look to receive a few inches before going back to zero in the cutter). This was very much a thread the needle event as the "cold" is very fleeting and we have a strung out S/W pretty well timed. However, the NYC steak of 700+ with under an inch of snow will continue and those near the coast will receive zero. I will likely hit my post limit after this so I will not be able to respond, if someone can remove my limit given I have been on these boards since inception and do not engage in personal attacks, that would be appreciative. Coastal NE looks to do pretty well. Your post is otherwise reasonable, but you seem to go to great lengths to marginalize the fact that many areas are seeing a significant snowstorm. Imperfect scenarios yield snowfall quite often in any given winter...just like reasonably good patterns yield nothing in bad ones, like last season (March). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro has the midweek storm deepening into the 960’s.. huge strong HP to the NE. Sure some inversion .. but that setup screams wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, "hard to get to normal" isn't necessarily ratter. 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Several prominent posters said this week that the winter hinges entirely on what happens Jan 10-17th. And that if that period is lost it makes or breaks the rat. Let’s see where things stand on the 17th. 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Will implied that week is crucial to how the winter will be perceived ie reaching the season's ceiling and I would agree. Its not necessary to avoid a ratter. 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He takes kernels of truth and throws them into a blender. 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think they mean that in the really good seasons, you will catch some breaks in an imperfect stretch...so you have the "tenor" of the winter to consider, as well as the simple fact that it makes it easier to have a good season mathematically speaking because there is less ground for February to make up from a climatological snowfall standpoint. Nah he said ratter. I mean we have seen seasons flip late. Let's see how it shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Nah he said ratter. I mean we have seen seasons flip late. Let's see how it shakes out. I meant aside from Kevin...like Scott and Will, for instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rains and winds to deep into Maines https://x.com/jimcantore/status/1743211485336043564?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg https://x.com/jimcantore/status/1743206770007257503?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg enjoy your short-lived pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro has the midweek storm deepening into the 960’s.. huge strong HP to the NE. Sure some inversion .. but that setup screams wind Amazing how long this monster has been modeled. Epic floods? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Amazing how long this monster has been modeled. Epic floods? It really is amazing how models never waver from a week + out when we see these huge damaging screamers .. but with snowstorms they can’t get it right even at go time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Amazing how long this monster has been modeled. Epic floods? seems like 90% of the time modeled fat rainers come to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It really is amazing how models never waver from a week + out when we see these huge damaging screamers .. but with snowstorms they can’t get it right even at go time. I've asked this same question several times over the yrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I've asked this same question several times over the yrs It’s uncanny how it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I'e asked this same question several times over the yrs The answer is really just simple math….a cutter 600 miles west of us can shift 200 miles and it’s still a cutter. A big snowstorm cannot. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 We explain it multiple times every season. Some don’t listen. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The answer is really just simple math….a cutter 600 miles west of us can shift 200 miles and it’s still a cutter. A big snowstorm cannot. Plus I mean these cutters seem to be longer tracking strong systems as opposed to something dependent on 2 pieces phasing over east coast and if and when that interaction occurs like many of our larger storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The answer is really just simple math….a cutter 600 miles west of us can shift 200 miles and it’s still a cutter. A big snowstorm cannot. A snowstorm can't shift that much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, dendrite said: We explain it multiple times every season. Some don’t listen. i'm a slow learner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The answer is really just simple math….a cutter 600 miles west of us can shift 200 miles and it’s still a cutter. A big snowstorm cannot. I think there’s far more to it than that 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: A snowstorm can't shift that much? My interpretation of what they're saying is that they absolutely can however, it then turns into "not a snowstorm". It cuts west and brings rain or goes OTS and gone. Basically the spot where a storm needs to be to be a good snowstorm for the area is far smaller than what's necessary for something to cut west and rain or simply go out to sea and not be anything for us. Easier to forecast/predict something with much wider options to happen than that thin sliver for a great snowstorm. The cutter can go up anywhere west of us right up to VT-ish area (just my guess) and bring rain or poor conditions. Just my take on what they're saying, could definitely still be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think there’s far more to it than that I think most is covered in Wills explanation , but additionally There is the fact most of the big cutters screamers inside runners aren’t depending on a phase ( just in time) to be large strong systems ..like our big snowers. So ours are more likely to go poof or show up late when 2 perfectly timed vorts can be modeled with that Detail and can’t at day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Imagine you live in Chicago and tell me whether it shifted the past couple of days or not. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: There is the fact most of the big cutters screamers inside runners aren’t depending on a phase ( just in time) to be large strong systems ..like our big snowers Even just clippers or small snow events are poorly modeled. But when you see a screamer modeled it never fails 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 We’ve been on a remarkable string of these epic cutters going back to the Dec 20’ grinch event. It looks like dog shit as modeled but we’re still 5 days away. The mountains to my NW look to net gain and avoid getting washed away like they did 3 weeks ago at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Even just clippers or small snow events are poorly modeled. But when you see a screamer modeled it never fails Handling large scale systems is easier for modeling. Remember in a large scale system the area of snow is very small in comparison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: We’ve been on a remarkable string of these epic cutters going back to the Dec 20’ grinch event. It looks like dog shit as modeled but we’re still 5 days away. The mountains to my NW look to net gain and avoid getting washed away like they did 3 weeks ago at least. Do they? I thought we were looking at 40s and 2” of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, alex said: Do they? I thought we were looking at 40s and 2” of rain Im thinking longfellows like saddleback and sugarloaf. Whites not so much but it could change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Imagine you live in Chicago and tell me whether it shifted the past couple of days or not. I’m sure people out there sometimes go “it’s amazing how east coast storms always seem to be modeled well and stay east coast storms and never trend back to us”. They don’t care if it’s a BGM or ORH or NYC jackpot…all the same to them. Just like for us, we don’t care if it’s Detroit, ORD or Milwaukee or Cleveland. All the same sensible wx for us on the east side. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 EC storms don’t have any impacts to midwesterners so they likely don’t even look. Screamers and EC storms both affect us so we care about both. Huge difference 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 15 minutes ago, alex said: Do they? I thought we were looking at 40s and 2” of rain Less destructive than 50s and 5" rain, like 12/18. The 2.3" rain at mid 30s on 12/11-12 only solidified what snow was left. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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