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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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  On 1/5/2024 at 12:05 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Lol but we see thru him. Honestly I am on Ray's train good things about to happen once we rid the cutters, which by the way aren't set in stone. Remember this many here called cutter on the 7th back in December 

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A week ago(last Friday), we had many saying January was done/no snow or winter lol.  And the usual suspects were even cancelling into February.  

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  On 1/5/2024 at 12:04 PM, CoastalWx said:

I’m not being a Debbie. If that trough is sitting on us, it is what it is. Sucks.

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There is a progression, though....it doesn't just appear over us via osmosis....it needs to move in and then move out. You know damn well the favored periods for large systems are during intervals of mass flux. Man, imagine how many weenies would be force fed anyone daring to project excitement over an hour 360 map showing a blizzard.

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  On 1/5/2024 at 12:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is a progression, though....it doesn't just appear over us via osmosis....it needs to move in and then move out. You know damn well the favored periods for large systems are during intervals of mass flux. Man, imagine how many weenies would be force fed anyone daring to project excitement over an hour 360 map showing a blizzard.

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I’m just speaking of the next two weeks though. Not Feb. Pattern blows.

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  On 1/5/2024 at 12:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Several prominent posters said this week that the winter hinges entirely on what happens Jan 10-17th. And that if that period is lost it makes or breaks the rat. Let’s see where things stand on the 17th. 

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Will implied that week is crucial to how the winter will be perceived ie reaching the season's ceiling and I would agree. Its not necessary to avoid a ratter.

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  On 1/5/2024 at 12:25 PM, CoastalWx said:

I always felt that would be a statement week. 

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I guess that’s the fear, next week is cutters then we go cold dry between 15th-18th before the pattern resets. I don’t like how the ensembles are pulling the trough back after the tpv swings through in the extended. At the very least I don’t see some pac ext which would lead to pac puke invading the country. We should keep the cold anomalies in the west. 
 

For an east coast snowstorm don’t we want the tpv south? It seems lately it has been a meat grinder and not playing nice in the few times it has swung through 

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  On 1/5/2024 at 12:37 PM, Allsnow said:

I guess that’s the fear, next week is cutters then we go cold dry between 15th-18th before the pattern resets. I don’t like how the ensembles are pulling the trough back after the tpv swings through in the extended. At the very least I don’t see some pac ext which would lead to pac puke invading the country. We should keep the cold anomalies in the west. 
 

For an east coast snowstorm don’t we want the tpv south? It seems lately it has been a meat grinder and not playing nice in the few times it has swung through 

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I think it’s hard to get to normal if we get nothing the 10-17. 

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  On 1/5/2024 at 12:30 PM, Ginx snewx said:

How in God's name does 1 week in the middle of Jan determine the rest of winter? 2nd half winters can rock. Let's see how it shakes out.

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I think they mean that in the really good seasons, you will catch some breaks in an imperfect stretch...so you have the "tenor" of the winter to consider, as well as the simple fact that it makes it easier to have a good season mathematically speaking because there is less ground for February to make up from a climatological snowfall standpoint.

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