CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GEFS also much colder for the 10th. Great for NNE especially. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS also much colder for the 10th. Great for NNE especially. It was ... and the 500 mb is significantly colder in g-pot hgts as the wave space compresses through PA than prior runs. ... I mean this thing is still 8 days out - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It was ... and the 500 mb is significantly colder in g-pot hgts as the wave space compresses through PA than prior runs. ... I mean this thing is still 8 days out - Same with GEPS. Almost a legit SWFE even here. Edit that was the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gorgeous day 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Thinking about making an unscheduled ski trip Monday to Thursday with the son before back to school so I am all over this. Thinking Okemo area to minimize the drive. Don't want to do 4.5 or 5 hours to get to Jay before getting in the car for the ride back to school. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 nice block, ear-popper 1070mb high over Greenland 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: nice block, ear-popper 1070mb high over Greenland yeah... it looks like the -NAO is trying to exert a weee bit earlier than prior depictions. This being 8 days out - obviously goes without saying, a wholesale correction east with that OV trough becomes more penetrative. The whole thing could change into something else. The NAO is a masterful headache inducer. It's seldom correctly handled even at D8. For that matter, it could just up and evolve into an eastern limb expression... sending things to Manitoba. But present trends are the other way so - all possibilities about the flow east of Chi-town are still in the playoff hunt re Jan 10/11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The long-range GFS is funny. The -NAO takes over the eastern 2/3rds of the continent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 41 minutes ago, cut said: Thinking about making an unscheduled ski trip Monday to Thursday with the son before back to school so I am all over this. Thinking Okemo area to minimize the drive. Don't want to do 4.5 or 5 hours to get to Jay before getting in the car for the ride back to school. Would recommend Okemo over Jay right now..Jay looks a little far north for the good stuff this weekend and will need at least a foot to get going the way it should be. Trails are limited right now. Okemo has done a great job blowing trails open and might cash in a little better in the next 7 days. Might be the top choice for a bit. Jay will be great again 10-14 from now if this pattern holds IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 57 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: nice block, ear-popper 1070mb high over Greenland This is a pattern I love. -PNA spitting out shortwave energy, tries to drive it north but the block locks in the cold and its Miller B time (if I'm understanding this correctly. And not too much suppression give the position of the Greenland Block and 50-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: La Niña pattern. Looks like 07-08 or 08-09 on some of these progs with that gradient. Just looking for a bit of clarification as to your thinking... I might be completely wrong (good chance), and assume you are talking about the entire NA upper level construct having a La Nina vibe. But in terms of storm tracks, isn't this system's snow / rain layout pretty typical of El Nino winters? I've always thought El Nino winters favored some big interior Mid Atlantic / SNE events with the typical coastal plain precip type issues. The Pacific sst anomaly is clearly in El Nino mode but there appears to be a disconnect with some of the more typical El Nino atmospheric features / indexes? But in terms of East Coast action this kind of fits the mode... Am I wrong about that??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, FXWX said: Just looking for a bit of clarification as to your thinking... I might be completely wrong (good chance), and assume you are talking about the entire NA upper level construct having a La Nina vibe. But in terms of storm tracks, isn't this system's snow / rain layout pretty typical of El Nino winters? I've always thought El Nino winters favored some big interior Mid Atlantic / SNE events with the typical coastal plain precip type issues. The Pacific sst anomaly is clearly in El Nino mode but there appears to be a disconnect with some of the more typical El Nino atmospheric features / indexes? But in terms of East Coast action this kind of fits the mode... Am I wrong about that??? This current 1/7 storm def is more of an El Niño flavor…I was more referring to the pattern that follows. Very La Niña as we start building SE ridge and western trough. Hopefully blocking is good enough to keep us on the cold side most of the time. That said, Euro doesn’t want to cooperate much with the 1:10 threat. Not nearly as CADish and cold as the other 12z guidance. We’ll see what EPS says in a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Don't think you could get a worse run on the 10th then the 12z Euro has, Glad its still 8 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Don't think you could get a worse run on the 10th then the 12z Euro has, Glad its still 8 days away. Hopefully it’s out to lunch vs other guidance. That’s a huge difference. Some guidance gives warning criteria snow for just about all of CNE/NNE (and even close in parts of SNE) while Euro is not much at all and prolonged mild rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 It's interesting how last winter, I think it was January too, we were in La Nina state but we had that period where the pattern was very EL Nino like. Now we're in EL Nino moving into January and we have a La Nina like pattern. Certainly not seeing the ocean/atmosphere couple, or struggling to do so. This I think was hinted extremely well by the MEI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Euro the weakest and sheared out for storm 1.. and then gins up a screamer for the ages storm 2. It hasn’t been right in years . Hopefully that continues 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Garbage storm 1 = garbage storm 2. Have to hope this isn’t the tandem the euro decides to get right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Euro is gross but still think the 10th is the system to watch for NNE. Nice to see the follow up wave on the 14th still modeled out there in clown range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully it’s out to lunch vs other guidance. That’s a huge difference. Some guidance gives warning criteria snow for just about all of CNE/NNE (and even close in parts of SNE) while Euro is not much at all and prolonged mild rains. It was vastly different that other guidance wrt to the entire NAO domain handling... Such a wholesale (hemi) continuity disruption is a bit dubious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully it’s out to lunch vs other guidance. That’s a huge difference. Some guidance gives warning criteria snow for just about all of CNE/NNE (and even close in parts of SNE) while Euro is not much at all and prolonged mild rains. SFC low over KART vs KBAX. It's only 350 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Already heard of 50s next week....good grief. At least we should all or mostly all have some nice scenery for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: Already heard of 50s next week....good grief. At least we should all or mostly all have some nice scenery for a day or two. ehhh I wouldn't put too much stock into that just yet. That is highly dependent on the mid-week storm. I would not be too surprised if we saw that get shunted south and east a bit and we don't really warm sector at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We pray for the geps and euro for mid month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Looks like very interesting times ahead. Some of these systems look like cutters but morph into snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This current 1/7 storm def is more of an El Niño flavor…I was more referring to the pattern that follows. Very La Niña as we start building SE ridge and western trough. Hopefully blocking is good enough to keep us on the cold side most of the time. That said, Euro doesn’t want to cooperate much with the 1:10 threat. Not nearly as CADish and cold as the other 12z guidance. We’ll see what EPS says in a bit. this gives me Jan 2011 / Feb 2021 vibes. very impressive blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 56 minutes ago, dryslot said: Don't think you could get a worse run on the 10th then the 12z Euro has, Glad its still 8 days away. we really need one or both of these events to materialize up here to get the season rolling. At this rate, it's easily 3rd week of Jan, perhaps early Feb before any riding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We'll take that look for sure. Also, EPS looked better for NNE on the 10th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this gives me Jan 2011 / Feb 2021 vibes. very impressive blocking It's difficult to believe there would not be blockbuster potential within that pattern. I'd be nervous for suppression, but taking the IMBY perspective out of it, that screams blockbuster potential. Could be here or could be towards the mid-Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this gives me Jan 2011 / Feb 2021 vibes. very impressive blocking Agreed. Just need it to verify now. Lol. GEFS was a little less ideal but still decent….hopefully EPS are more correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed. Just need it to verify now. Lol. GEFS was a little less ideal but still decent….hopefully EPS are more correct. GEFS has been trending much blockier since yesterday. GEPS looks a lot like the ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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