TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Hideous runs for 1/10 on tonight’s guidance so far. Was hoping NNE was going to start the pack building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 vicious..hopefully we get some good wind at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Ukie is inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 sheeesh, screamer going to town on ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Lots of rain and mild but wind???? Don't remember any The first had major tree and power damage It gusted 60-80mph. It wiped out everything. We lost any CAD on the overnight runs for the 10th. Unless that changes this is a Chicago blizzard and we wipe out to NNE what we get Saturday night . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The first had major tree and power damage It gusted 60-80mph. It wiped out everything. We lost any CAD on the overnight runs for the 10th. Unless that changes this is a Chicago blizzard and we wipe out to NNE what we get Saturday night . Plenty of time for this to become a colder rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 29 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Plenty of time for this to become a colder rain. I think your right, but looking beyond this I think we are in a good position for more Snow opportunities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I think your right, but looking beyond this I think we are in a good position for more Snow opportunities That's what was said 2wks ago right before the last cutter. Look how this one is trending Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6z GFS was nice for the 10th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 What a weenie run on 06z GFS. That’s how to run the upcoming pattern. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18.0 this morning. Lowest of all of 2024 so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, Layman said: 18.0 this morning. Lowest of all of 2024 so far. Sort of like saying "I finished first in a road race" while neglecting to mention that there was only 1 other person in the race... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Cold morning…18° at CON Only 3F above normal 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 For several years now we have seen forecasts of big midwestern blizzards a week out fizzle. I suspect the 10th will be weaker, and battling the CAD. Although, I wouldn't mind a big-dog out there, those are often table setters for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10 hours ago, kazimirkai said: Can somebody explain the extreme forecast index please? What is a shift of tails? The EFI looks at the 5 week window centered on the forecast period and compares model climate to ensemble distribution. The more ensembles higher or lower than the m-climate the higher or lower EFI will be. Irrespective of sign, EFI closer to 1 is more unusual. Shift of tails looks at the top 10% of ensemble members. The more extreme those members, the higher the shift of tails will be. That can clue you in to just how big the potential is with certain events. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: Cold morning…18° at CON Only 3F above normal I wonder how far above compared to the long term average.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12 hours ago, dendrite said: Good luck if there’s pack over the interior and CAD You can already see the CAD on that weenie Euro gust forecast. Instead of 60+ mph through interior Maine it's already forecasting 40s in a CAD shape. Not hard to sell that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: What a weenie run on 06z GFS. That’s how to run the upcoming pattern. What's it showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: What's it showing? Lot of snow and cold…no real torches or true cutters (has the 1/10 system as a pretty good front ender with a triple point low limiting the low level warming duration)…plenty of threats into mid-month too. The mid-month pattern is kind of high risk high reward. There’s some western troughing which could risk a cutter but it’s also very active so if we avoid the cutters, prob a good amount of snow can result. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yeah, I don't know about the 10th-12th ( probably does bias on the front side of those days given to the fast footed pattern...). There is narrow window in the larger mass fields to have that happen, but its closing. By the 12th, the -NAO block is already retrograding to D. Straight, which back exerts a shit ton signal for NW flow into Ontario ( mid/u/a ), which would impose obviously confluence/implicity higher surface pressure. The NAO is notoriously poorly handled. Even in the better modeled behavior patterns there are nuance headaches. Also, that event may become victim to system attenuation as it nears. A weaker system would end up along a more southerly route. And you can't think in absolutes - it's not a matter of Detroit versus Worcester. But even a idiosyncratically weaker total wave space ( due to model correcting in shorter terms) moving into an initially colder environment ends up more triple point. Just some thoughts on that particular event... It's very early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: What a weenie run on 06z GFS. That’s how to run the upcoming pattern. Now there's a statement that will get some excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: What's it showing? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 That was some pretty thick frost this morning. I couldn't even scrape it off the back windshield. Had to wait for the defrogger to do its work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That was some pretty thick frost this morning. I couldn't even scrape it off the back windshield. Had to wait for the defrogger to do its work. It was really thick frost here too. Wonder if the excess moisture in the ground helped with that. Almost looked like it snowed a dusting when I went out but it was pure frost. Usually don’t get that on the hill here…we get frost but it’s normally lighter and the heavy frost is reserved for the lower spots down near the bottom. But today it was thick everywhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It was really thick frost here too. Wonder if the excess moisture in the ground helped with that. Almost looked like it snowed a dusting when I went out but it was pure frost. Usually don’t get that on the hill here…we get frost but it’s normally lighter and the heavy frost is reserved for the lower spots down near the bottom. But today it was thick everywhere. I had a good frost too and I never have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was really thick frost here too. Wonder if the excess moisture in the ground helped with that. Almost looked like it snowed a dusting when I went out but it was pure frost. Usually don’t get that on the hill here…we get frost but it’s normally lighter and the heavy frost is reserved for the lower spots down near the bottom. But today it was thick everywhere. Yeah when I looked out the window this morning I had to do a double take b/c it legit looked like a dusting of snow. That's a good observation about the excess moisture...wonder if that certainly did play a role. It was quite an interesting frost. I guess that's how you know when things have been pretty meh...when frost is the most interesting thing to have happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lot of snow and cold…no real torches or true cutters (has the 1/10 system as a pretty good front ender with a triple point low limiting the low level warming duration)…plenty of threats into mid-month too. The mid-month pattern is kind of high risk high reward. There’s some western troughing which could risk a cutter but it’s also very active so if we avoid the cutters, prob a good amount of snow can result. -AO/-NAO ( now include -EPO in that ...), with a -PNA. But also, I checked and the WPO projections are still tanking mid month in all 3 major sources. That's going to transmit the AB phase across the Pacific circulation mode (higher heights N over cooler heights S) and almost invariably that precedes either a +PNA ...or a hybrid -PNA ( 2015 February) I'm actually more optimistic at this point than I have been for a mid winter month in years quite honestly. If this were me 15 years ago on Eastern I'd have started a thread about a potentially cold stormy era lasting 15th to 25th of the month - but popularity for those extended risk assessments has since turned into bundamentalism so I don't bother LOL 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just realized how the Jan 2 1987 event would have triggered Kevin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That was some pretty thick frost this morning. I couldn't even scrape it off the back windshield. Had to wait for the defrogger to do its work. Looked like a dusting of snow, I almost measured it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just realized how the Jan 2 1987 event would have triggered Kevin. Thankfully those kinds of storms no longer occur 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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