CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, George001 said: For the 10th threat, what are some things to look for that would lead to a more wintry outcome? I think the biggest issue is to develop more confluence to our north. I don’t think it prevents us from flipping to rain, but it could help lead to a colder front end and keep NNE frozen. I thought the euro took a step that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think the biggest issue is to develop more confluence to our north. I don’t think it prevents us from flipping to rain, but it could help lead to a colder front end and keep NNE frozen. I thought the euro took a step that way. I know the 10th is a ways out, temps yesterday looked 40-45F? Not sure the amount of precipitation , but afraid we would loose whatever pack we start to establish for us SNE. I know, one thing at a time, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think the biggest issue is to develop more confluence to our north. I don’t think it prevents us from flipping to rain, but it could help lead to a colder front end and keep NNE frozen. I thought the euro took a step that way. Yeah with that setup we are going to taint eventually, but I’m hoping we can get a few inches of front end and avoid the torch for a net gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Yeah the 10th will probably be a net-gainer for the deep interior, at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Verbatim this 18z gfs run is horrific for New England. Scraped on the 7th and Rainer for 95% of the forum on the 10th and 12th. Hopefully that’s not how it plays out 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Verbatim this 18z gfs run is horrific for New England. Scraped on the 7th and Rainer for 95% of the forum on the 10th and 12th. Hopefully that’s not how it plays out That had disaster written all over it, Last thing we need is more flooding, Plenty of time left in the period, Thats probably as bad as it can get on the 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Verbatim this 18z gfs run is horrific for New England. Scraped on the 7th and Rainer for 95% of the forum on the 10th and 12th. Hopefully that’s not how it plays out Yeah... 18z GFS ( especially for the 1/10-12 threat ).... Not paying any mind at this point. As far as the more immediate threat for later this upcoming weekend.... The GFS actually came north a good bit from its earlier run today. With the other models showing hits... I think the direction is good for 1/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 yeah wow, killer cutters on that 18z gfs. At least it's wet 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 30 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: yeah wow, killer cutters on that 18z gfs. At least it's wet Then cold dry verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 33 minutes ago, dryslot said: That had disaster written all over it, Last thing we need is more flooding, Plenty of time left in the period, Thats probably as bad as it can get on the 11th. You would need 3”+ to get any flooding though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 That would have gusts 60-80mph again . If it has to happen , at there’s that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Wow, that's some cold modeled for the 15th out in Iowa for the caucuses. They will be below zero all day, with a low by the next morning in western Iowa reaching -33°F, while BOS bathes at 36°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Quite a difference at h5 with the GEFS vs the GFS for the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We may roar again https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1741972556846866852?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We may roar again https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1741972556846866852?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Good luck if there’s pack over the interior and CAD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Good luck if there’s pack over the interior and CAD Tell that to 1996 screamers with feet OTG to coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, 512high said: I know the 10th is a ways out, temps yesterday looked 40-45F? Not sure the amount of precipitation , but afraid we would loose whatever pack we start to establish for us SNE. I know, one thing at a time, Pope brain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tell that to 1996 screamers with feet OTG to coast. He said with CAD. That first ‘96 screamer had zero CAD. We were actually quite mild the couple days leading into it. We’ll see on the 1/10 deal, but a lot of guidance shows some CAD even if a couple GFS runs haven’t showed as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tell that to 1996 screamers with feet OTG to coast. Well... a lot of the snow we received in 96 was modeled to be rain in SNE a week out. Many that year trended colder close in. Vastly different modeling accepted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tell that to 1996 screamers with feet OTG to coast. Lots of rain and mild but wind???? Don't remember any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lots of rain and mild but wind???? Don't remember any That first cutter had huge wind with it that was aided by a line of convection. I remember we had a severe tstorm warning for a big chunk of SE MA…I remember it so well because we drove through it on the way to the Cape that Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That first cutter had huge wind with it that was aided by a line of convection. I remember we had a severe tstorm warning for a big chunk of SE MA…I remember it so well because we drove through it on the way to the Cape that Friday. That was vicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 this warm windy cutter talk is awesome!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kazimirkai Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 hours ago, OceanStWx said: The Euro EFI stuff can help with that too. The shift of tails shows you what the outliers at the top end are saying, but the shading tells you where the meat of the ensemble is. Can somebody explain the extreme forecast index please? What is a shift of tails? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was vicious. Wasn't BTV something like 60 at 11:00 at night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Wasn't BTV something like 60 at 11:00 at night? Feels like that’s no biggie at times during strong cutters these days, ha. Maybe 60F, but 50s in a cutter at BTV is like a common occurrence these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was vicious. I was living on the hill in Arlington and we lost power for at least a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kazimirkai Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 CPC thoughts on the 10th storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 CMC is a disaster for the 10th, it’s too bad whatever happens before is going to be followed by that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now