dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The good news is there won't be any mixing issues for the 7th on this run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Fringe south coast of what Delmarva, it scooted east with the confluence. Just an op run all options still on table .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, dryslot said: The good news is there won't be any mixing issues for the 7th on this run. Just me on the GEM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Cirrus Just some ? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I don't think ensembles are going to be much help with this and we're probably not going to get much clarity until we're about 60 hours out. Any "trends" we see now are going to be pretty worthless...we're going to have to see how guidance is handling everything once we get to the 72 hour window. This seems like a constant theme these past 3-4 winters. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just me on the GEM lol. Whats a few hundred miles between models, Lot of moving parts @H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 (GGEM + GFS)/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: (GGEM + GFS)/2 ((GGEM+GFS)/2)^2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't think ensembles are going to be much help with this and we're probably not going to get much clarity until we're about 60 hours out. Any "trends" we see now are going to be pretty worthless...we're going to have to see how guidance is handling everything once we get to the 72 hour window. This seems like a constant theme these past 3-4 winters. If your interested .. I outlined some of the reasons (theoretical) for why that may be the case over in the thread I just put up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Navy is also north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 10th going to be quite ugly too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Let’s whiff and then rain. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Another beast screamer there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s whiff and then rain. It’s not like whiff, whiff, cutter is a pattern unfamiliar to NE. Happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: “ I’m rooting for NNE snow” and folks wonder why? what's worse is those folks yesterday salivating over and legit hyping the Euro solutions, yet the same people have been absolutely trashing that models MR/LR performance for months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I don't think ensembles are going to be much help with this and we're probably not going to get much clarity until we're about 60 hours out. Any "trends" we see now are going to be pretty worthless...we're going to have to see how guidance is handling everything once we get to the 72 hour window. This seems like a constant theme these past 3-4 winters. Trends matter . If it trends south for two days and more importantly *how much * you don’t want it so far you need a Hail Mary to Bring it back did the west trough weaken on the gfs, seems like that was helping this get latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If your interested .. I outlined some of the reasons (theoretical) for why that may be the case over in the thread I just put up. definitely interested. I will go check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: It’s not like whiff, whiff, cutter is a pattern unfamiliar to NE. Happens. Yup, Made that claim a couple days ago of the possibility, I still think we will get at least one of these to work out, If we get the 7th to track further north it will help out the 10th to stay further SE into a SWFE i think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, dryslot said: Yup, Made that claim a couple days ago of the possibility, I still think we will get at least one of these to work out, If we get the 7th to track further north it will help out the 10th to stay further SE into a SWFE i think. Yeah you want a phased 1/7 system helping with confluence ahead of the 1/10 system. GGEM was better for 1/10 too and I’m betting it’s 1/7 solution helped. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Trends matter . If it trends south for two days and more importantly *how much * you don’t want it so far you need a Hail Mary to Bring it back did the west trough weaken on the gfs, seems like that was helping this get latitude ehhh honestly sometimes the word trend is overused. I think Wes (Usedtobe) used to say at any conference he hated that word trend. We have seen several potential events these last several winters where ENS support was very high several days out and even some good OP support in the 3-4-5 day range only for us to start getting inside 72 hours and things just fall apart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you want a phased 1/7 system helping with confluence ahead of the 1/10 system. GGEM was better for 1/10 too and I’m betting its 1/7 solution helped. Looks like an all or nothing pattern. If 1/7 whiffs south we are cooked, but if it goes way north a wintry solution for 1/10 is back on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you want a phased 1/7 system helping with confluence ahead of the 1/10 system. GGEM was better for 1/10 too and I’m betting it’s 1/7 solution helped. It’s a double whammy. The worse 1/7 is, the worse 1/10 is. If 1/7 is like the gfs, 1/10 is rains to Mainers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you want a phased 1/7 system helping with confluence ahead of the 1/10 system. GGEM was better for 1/10 too and I’m betting it’s 1/7 solution helped. Yes noticed it on yesterdays runs when we were getting snow up here from the 7th that the 10th looked good too, Yesterdays 12z Euro had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 It's so early yet for any kind of call for next Sunday, Monday. Yesterday was a beauty of model runs. The nice part is it got a lot of us in a different place from where we had been. There's no way to know what's going to happen for the storm on the 7th for sure. Even though today's runs have been mediocre at best, there's going to be changes with the model runs later today, tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday. Same goes for the system on the 10th. We have no idea if it's going to rain, snow, nothing, cutter, coastal. Just focusing on the storm for Sunday for now. I'm just glad that we're tracking a winter type storm now, not a complete rain job! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: and folks wonder why? what's worse is those folks yesterday salivating over and legit hyping the Euro solutions, yet the same people have been absolutely trashing that models MR/LR performance for months Aren’t you worried about hydroplaning the Amazon van? 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I don’t think the ensembles will be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 12/31/2023 at 10:39 AM, jbenedet said: A whiff… And then a whiff or rain. Can’t wait. 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s whiff and then rain. 10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It’s not like whiff, whiff, cutter is a pattern unfamiliar to NE. Happens. 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yup, Made that claim a couple days ago of the possibility, I still think we will get at least one of these to work out, If we get the 7th to track further north it will help out the 10th to stay further SE into a SWFE i think. 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s a double whammy. The worse 1/7 is, the worse 1/10 is. If 1/7 is like the gfs, 1/10 is rains to Mainers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s whiff and then rain. Is this right out of the 1973 playbook or some winter(s) from the 80s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Aren’t you worried about hydroplaning the Amazon van? why? 7th is obviously a whiff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Aren’t you worried about hydroplaning the Amazon van? Hes not a troll though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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