January 2024 -- Discussion

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/31/2023 at 9:18 PM, deathridge said:

Who’s ready to be buried in sweet sweet white stuff?

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can we just lock this

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/31/2023 at 9:20 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

He just tossed them a couple gummies and told them they’re Flintstone’s.

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Lol, never. I’d toss some to the pope though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/31/2023 at 9:18 PM, deathridge said:

Who’s ready to be buried in sweet sweet white stuff?

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January 2003 gradient I have been waiting for.

[ineedsnow]

18z GFS 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:19 PM, ineedsnow said:

18z GFS 

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A perfect track for SNE, a few ticks south of 12z.. PA gets buried with 15-25”

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Congrats south coast on the 18z gfs

[NittanyWx]

  On 12/31/2023 at 9:17 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Did I post the 2m temps or did you? You are certifiably crazy .. Who on earth posts Day 6 2m temp anomalies before the storm, it makes zero sense.  You cannot win this argument man get a life. We have had 30 degree temp anomalies the day before a snowstorm, what is your point?  The simple point is that if the storm takes a favorable track it will snow.  Posting Saturday's anomalies bring no forecasting skill to this forum. 

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The antecedent airmass being marginal is a legitimate aspect of forecasting this storm.  Not sure I understand this comment.

 

Modeling is fair game inside d7 as are the slight synoptic differences.

 

Some of y'all get so emotional when there's a storm around and I don't understand why.

[WeatherX]

That track will take care of some hunger issues down here for sure


.

[78Blizzard]

  On 12/31/2023 at 9:18 PM, deathridge said:

Who’s ready to be buried in sweet sweet white stuff?

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Many of us in ENE, the Cape, and the South Coast region would prefer the GFS version at the same time frame:

[RDRY]

  On 12/31/2023 at 9:18 PM, deathridge said:

Who’s ready to be buried in sweet sweet white stuff?

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[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:22 PM, NittanyWx said:

The antecedent airmass being marginal is a legitimate aspect of forecasting this storm.  Not sure I understand this comment.

 

Modeling is fair game inside d7 as are the slight synoptic differences.

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I have to respectfully disagree with you, the antecedent airmass has nothing to do with the precipitation outcome in this case with that synoptic setup. High pressure is in the perfect spot to funnel in cold air.  The messier solutions you see on the Euro are because of the fact that the European guidance hugs the coast .  It’s as simple as a favorable track will lock in the cold and most likely bring snow. 

[78Blizzard]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:26 PM, deathridge said:

Whatever happens someone will wake up to more white stuff than they’ve seen all year.

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Just as long as I'm one of those someones.

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:26 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I have to respectfully 100% disagree with you, the antecedent airmass has nothing to do with the precipitation outcome in this case with that synoptic setup. High pressure is in the perfect spot to funnel in cold air.  The messier solutions you see on the Euro are because of the fact that the European guidance hugs the coast .  It’s as simple as a favorable track will most likely bring snow. 

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if you are south of a 985mb low in this specific setup, you will snow

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:29 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

if you are south of a 985mb low in this specific setup, you will snow

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North you meant I believe.  But yes I agree , some dont understand meteorology it seems 

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:29 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Exactly some Mets dont understand meteorology it seems 

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there’s a 1030mb Arctic high pressing in lmao cold air isn’t that much of an issue

[NittanyWx]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:26 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I have to respectfully 100% disagree with you, the antecedent airmass has nothing to do with the precipitation outcome in this case with that synoptic setup. High pressure is in the perfect spot to funnel in cold air.  The messier solutions you see on the Euro are because of the fact that the European guidance hugs the coast .  It’s as simple as a favorable track will most likely bring snow. 

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So its entirely a function of the low levels...nothing to do with 700mb low track, phasing of multiple jet streams, timing of a deepening low into an antecedent marginal airmass?

 

The high helps, but this is far more detailed than just 'track'. 

 

[NittanyWx]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:29 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Exactly some Mets dont understand meteorology it seems 

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Oh really now?

 

Are you sure the high is gonna be 1030 at d7?  Are you sure the low is gonna be 985?  Are you sure the synoptic conditions aren't going to cause the storm to be suppressed? What about over amp?

 

Because these are factors I'm considering and you should be too if you could forecast worth a damn.

 

 

[dryslot]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:31 PM, NittanyWx said:

 

So its entirely a function of the low levels...nothing to do with 700mb low track, phasing of multiple jet streams, timing of a deepening low into an antecedent marginal airmass?

 

The high helps, but this is far more detailed than just 'track'. 

 

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You are making this conversation more complicated now. The conversation was only about his map showing temp anomalies next Saturday for a snowstorm on Sunday. That has no relevance on the outcome of the storm. 
 

I’ll play his game though.  Here’s the gfs temp anomalies next Saturday then the next day 10-25” of snow across much of that area. 

[NittanyWx]

Just unnecessary level of emotion in discussing various factors and minutae that impact a storm.  It's fair game to discuss it.

[OceanStWx]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:35 PM, dryslot said:

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High stakes. Can't wait for Dendrite to steal all the snow.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:34 PM, NittanyWx said:

 

Oh really now?

 

Are you sure the high is gonna be 1030 at d7?  Are you sure the low is gonna be 985?  Are you sure the synoptic conditions aren't going to cause the storm to be suppressed? What about over amp?

 

Because these are factors I'm considering and you should be too if you could forecast worth a damn.

 

 

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Dude you are adding some much other BS into this. I’m not saying it’s 100% going to snow.  Go back and read the whole thread.  I swear some of you lack reading comprehension and social skills. The map he posted has no value towards the storm l, and I just proved it. That is my ONLY argument period now get over it. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:35 PM, dryslot said:

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The pope done started sumtin. 

[WxWatcher007]

This place is so dumb. 

[NittanyWx]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:35 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

You are making this conversation more complicated now. The conversation was only about his map showing temp anomalies next Saturday for a snowstorm on Sunday. That has no relevance on the outcome of the storm. 
 

I’ll play his game though.  Here’s the gfs temp anomalies next Saturday then the next day 10-25” of snow across much of that area. 

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Because it isn't simplistic.   Which is the whole damn point.  

 

And I've actually been someone who's flagged this period well over a week now as potentially having the necessary ingredients for snow and that it 'could work'.

 

But I hate this shit of policing what weather factors are fair game to discuss or not.  If that HP is 1024 instead of 1030, the antecedent airmass matters.

 

No one is saying it 'can't snow' because of the antecedent airmass.  But it's absolutely fair game to discuss. 

[NittanyWx]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:38 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Dude you are adding some much other BS into this. I’m not saying it’s 100% going to snow.  Go back and read the whole thread.  I swear some of you lack reading comprehension and social skills. The map he posted has no value towards the storm l, and I just proved it. That is my ONLY argument period now get over it. 

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You are going out of your way to take shots at people.  Discuss the meteorology.

 

It is a complex setup and should be treated as such.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

The storm may ride straight through Hartford and rain to CNE. The storm may bury us all, and it may miss us to the south. But the temp anomalies Saturday have nothing to do with it. 

[dryslot]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:38 PM, OceanStWx said:

High stakes. Can't wait for Dendrite to steal all the snow.

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If he does, We usually are the secondary beneficiaries.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/31/2023 at 10:31 PM, NittanyWx said:

 

So its entirely a function of the low levels...nothing to do with 700mb low track, phasing of multiple jet streams, timing of a deepening low into an antecedent marginal airmass?

 

The high helps, but this is far more detailed than just 'track'. 

 

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I agree ... this storm in the Euro has the option of containing a broadly expansive mix region, with snow to start going over to a rattling off the eaves and bouncing down windshields.  Freezing an option too but more likely a tall IP column. Could see the interior with IP clumps even at 25 F.   That high will likely tank the hydrostatic hgts below the 700 mb level though. 

I'm saying this just purely because there is unusually ( what's new ) warm air south of the storm track, while the 500 mb trough isohypses remain open while the trough bodily passes NW of the region.  A 700 mb warm intrusion isn't a bad idea here.  

it is not abundantly clear that the exertion/rearranging of the -NAO ( be grateful it's western limb or we could be cooked with NY state transit), but if that begins to exert during the week and the 500 mb squeezes more S than we ... there's time for that too -

[Damage In Tolland]

Beer and then beer leads to fights.

 

Fight, fight, fight!!!