Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Haven't seen this all winter. Even drunk Uncle is saying we let the dogs out finally. Woof 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 What a nice little upslope surprise. 2-3” out there pasting everything. Winter is back. This is a standing wave off Mansfield that’s been going for like 6 hours. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 The mood is changing hopefully we all get crushed soon! Overnight runs look much better! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3” overnight. God this looks so much better than endless April. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 what can go wrong 8 days out? Folks setting up sky-high expectations already 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't care as my morning wood on the 7th feels great for a change. Big dog LBSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: LBSW That was my thought too..but desperate times so we take sloppy seconds if necessary 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 13 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: what can go wrong 8 days out? Folks setting up sky-high expectations already just looking for something to track. It doesn't necessarily have to work out in my eyes. I'm just happy to see a little atmospheric reshuffle 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Maybe an inch or two in the hills Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: just looking for something to track. It doesn't necessarily have to work out in my eyes. I'm just happy to see a little atmospheric reshuffle Oh definitely. Like a faux hurricane strike at D8, just fun to track but no ones taking it too seriously, right? The past few pages are surely not setting up disappointment if nothing comes of it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe an inch or two in the hills Thursday night. New Years off to an early start? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Let’s get the euro track with the gfs airmass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Aside from the storm threats over the next 10 days, the LR improved overnight…that NAO blocking is still showing but the N PAC looks a lot better. Poleward EPO ridging showing up post-10th. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Aside from the storm threats over the next 10 days, the LR improved overnight…that NAO blocking is still showing but the N PAC looks a lot better. Poleward EPO ridging showing up post-10th. Yeah. Doesn’t look like a cold dump out west with that for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 19 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Oh definitely. Like a faux hurricane strike at D8, just fun to track but no ones taking it too seriously, right? The past few pages are surely not setting up disappointment if nothing comes of it? Truth be told. We haven't had anything decent to track since early December ( and that was northern NNE ). Now..is this definitely going up happen. No. Is it more possible than we've had this season for all the areas that have not seen any Snow yet, yes! I myself am happy for the possibilities that are upcoming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 46 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Oh definitely. Like a faux hurricane strike at D8, just fun to track but no ones taking it too seriously, right? The past few pages are surely not setting up disappointment if nothing comes of it? Well some... yeah I see that, but far from everyone. However it is the first "threat" that's showing up in a while, and IS something legit to watch for now. It's something to look at this evening while I'm trying to keep the eyes open awaiting midnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Aside from the storm threats over the next 10 days, the LR improved overnight…that NAO blocking is still showing but the N PAC looks a lot better. Poleward EPO ridging showing up post-10th. Would be nice for those trends to continue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: New Years off to an early start? It is here! Out in the shop finishing up an engine build for a friends Baja Bug. Spiced cider moonshine... just a sip for now. Now, did I remember to tighten those head studs?... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah at this point, I think the 5th only serves to act as a 50/50 for the 7th. still need a phase there in some capacity Yeah, we need Hazey to get his blizzard on the 5th a la the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Epicosity inbound. Getting time to crank it up Ginx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Epicosity inbound. Getting time to crank it up Ginx. Could be a pretty fun period…esp if we can sort of morph that 1/10 threat into a SWFE front ender type instead of a true cutter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 hours ago, Roger Smith said: It's probably no coincidence but just as this improved look to models began, the warmest Pacific air started to move north through my part of the world instead of east into the prairies. That opens up the arctic where legitimate cold is starting to develop finally, and it has a chance to replace the Pacific flow at least over the northern half of the lower 48 (east of the Rockies). So while the details remain subject to ebb and flow, I believe the pattern is improving steadily and can support a return to winter in the east. Once it starts it could lock in for a while, pattern changes have been slow for a while now, and it would be fair play to see a long-duration cold spell replace what has been about four or five weeks of mild weather based on dominant Pacific flows. It's a sensitive 10 days with potential for significant error - exceeding the base-line 'error climate' for modeling. After about 5 days from now ... the EPO flips positive, as the PNA sinks to -1 or -1.5 SD; meanwhile there is a continued general consensus for -AO/-NAO to anchor N/E. Those two are diametric signals occurring at hemispheric scale. Small variances from run to run are actually large changes in both time and space with entities at smaller scales. What you're describing is like a small back-off of the -PNA, but so subtle it barely registers in the numerical calculation of the index; yet look at the strife it caused during yesterday's model runs? It's kind of a big deal whether PIT-BOS line gets 36" from 3 separate events, or nada. That larger of all signals near the 11th has shifted E from the Iowa 'anchor low' idea, now more of a progressive season defining bomb for the Great Lakes, but I would not trust that. 18z yesterday, the operational GFS had that completely forced E and now it is wind blown open busted ravioli nuisance up through Minnesota again. It's something like the models are right about the entities existing, but there's some enhanced position error on where they will be - because there is no real boundary or exact interface where the circulation mode of the Pacific ( described above, which is a warm Chinook signal for N/A) approaches and begins to experience constraints imposed by the -AO/-NAO. Which is of course a cold, blocky storm thing... completely different universe of expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: LBSW Premature Pennsylvanian but if we can squeeze it a little longer the mother lode can hold off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Could be a pretty fun period…esp if we can sort of morph that 1/10 threat into a SWFE front ender type instead of a true cutter. Seems possible even likely if NAO cooperates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: What a nice little upslope surprise. 2-3” out there pasting everything. Winter is back. This is a standing wave off Mansfield that’s been going for like 6 hours. A 3" snowpack in the hills of VT on New Year's Eve. Rough season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Need to hear that the Geese have left Newington before I feel any bit confident about this upcoming stretch. 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 the long range has been looking good for 6 weeks 2 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, tunafish said: Need to hear that the Geese have left Newington before I feel any bit confident about this upcoming stretch. You might be positioned well for the next week. I might need to trek up to Pit2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Hey Will ... if you're lurking, do you have that PSU link for the historical model runs? I seem to have lost that. I'm keen on this Jan 7 thing because in reminds me ( in the general mid latitude circulation manifold) of the Dec 2005 10. NCEP's map library has the chart but it's the 12z only and I was wanting to see it closer to the 00z - I think your site has those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: New Years off to an early start? Models flipping rain to snow Regarding the Thu-Fri system, it now appears more likely (but still not definite) that northern and southern streams will stay separated until phasing occurs to the east of our region. This maintains a more positive/neutral tilt which forces a more offshore track of surface low, keeping most of its precipitation offshore as well. That being said, there may be enough lift from northern stream trough and sufficient moisture to generate some light rain or even some light snow depending upon surface temperature. Right now models are showing an initially mild airmass which favors rain, but eventually colder air is drawn into region behind departing system, which could result in a changeover to light snow later Thu night into Fri (assuming enough moisture remains). In any case, this looks to be a light precipitation event with very minor impacts. We`re probably not looking for more than an inch or so of accumulation (especially in the hills) according to ensemble probabilities. Canadian ensemble is most aggressive and GEFS/EPS less so. But it should be noted that these probabilities are based upon straight 10:1 snow to liquid ratios and do not take surface temps into account. It may end up being a little too warm to allow much snow to stick outside of the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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