January 2024 -- Discussion

[met_fan]

  On 12/31/2023 at 1:15 AM, MJO812 said:

It was more expensive during the season .

Ah, you’re right

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/30/2023 at 10:48 PM, CoastalWx said:

GEFS also west with 1/5.

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That’s the one.

[78Blizzard]

  On 12/30/2023 at 10:48 PM, CoastalWx said:

GEFS also west with 1/5.

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Even a couple of inches would be a nice birthday present.

[kazimirkai]

It is interesting though how on the 7ths storm neither the 12z euro deterministic or the 18z gfs deterministic are anywhere near their the center of their respective ensemble mean counterparts. Why doesn't the model default to deterministics that are more representative of the ensemble mean? I'm looking at hr 204 btw.

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/30/2023 at 10:42 PM, dryslot said:

The gorilla coming on the 11th

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[kazimirkai]

  On 12/31/2023 at 1:32 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

So as of right now, is the 4-5 threat off the table? Or is it still a possibility in southern New England? The 6-7 threat looks like it's a non-threat right now... And that threat 11-12 still looks like the most potent at this point, correct?

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It seems like the latest ensemble runs don't have hardly any members close enough to the coast to provide any sizeable precipitation even if it was in the form of snow. The best chance for anything around that time is probably some lingering inland snow from a weak low pressure near the st Lawrence valley before the energy transfers to the coastal low.

[apm]

  On 12/31/2023 at 2:03 AM, kazimirkai said:

It seems like the latest ensemble runs don't have hardly any members close enough to the coast to provide any sizeable precipitation even if it was in the form of snow. The best chance for anything around that time is probably some lingering inland snow from a weak low pressure near the st Lawrence valley before the energy transfers to the coastal low.

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How about this one: 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/31/2023 at 1:50 AM, kazimirkai said:

It is interesting though how on the 7ths storm neither the 12z euro deterministic or the 18z gfs deterministic are anywhere near their the center of their respective ensemble mean counterparts. Why doesn't the model default to deterministics that are more representative of the ensemble mean? I'm looking at hr 204 btw.

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Because the OP is essentially another ensemble member.....all the ensembles are is runs with slightly perturbed initial conditions. 

[George001]

With ensemble snow means i feel like the snowfall distribution is just as important if not more important than the amounts. The gefs has heavier snows inland and in the mountains with less along the coastline. That’s a strong signal for a hugger track, not a coastal scraper or southern slider. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/31/2023 at 12:49 AM, dryslot said:

18z GEFS, Great look for an ensemble mean.

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  On 12/31/2023 at 2:21 AM, George001 said:

With ensemble snow means i feel like the snowfall distribution is just as important if not more important than the amounts. The gefs has heavier snows inland and in the mountains with less along the coastline. That’s a strong signal for a hugger track, not a coastal scraper or southern slider. 

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I don't agree at all. That looks like a SWFE/revedeveloper pattern....look how the cape does better than much of CT.

[mreaves]

  On 12/31/2023 at 12:58 AM, met_fan said:

No…$25

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  On 12/31/2023 at 1:15 AM, MJO812 said:

It was more expensive during the season .

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Oooh met_fan vs Metfan. Fight, fight, fight!

[40/70 Benchmark]

That makes sense to me with a -PNA and -NAO.

[mreaves]

  On 12/31/2023 at 1:30 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My wife really wants to snowmobile when we got Jan 31st to Feb 4th. We’re going to use a place in Franconia notch, hoping they snow 

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If it doesn’t work out, you can come up here and I’ll bring you out. If we ever get to open. 

[kazimirkai]

  On 12/31/2023 at 2:07 AM, apm said:

 

How about this one: 

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Well I was referring explicitly to the 5th storm. The majority of the high snowfall amounts on some of these members result from the 7th storm which I figure is the better one anyways.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/31/2023 at 2:28 AM, mreaves said:

If it doesn’t work out, you can come up here and I’ll bring you out. If we ever get to open. 

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If it doesn’t, I may take you up on that offer eventually. Hoping all of the north country can get their winter going soon.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/31/2023 at 2:26 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I don't agree at all. That looks like a SWFE/revedeveloper pattern....look how the cape does better than much of CT.

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Yup, you get that tell tale appendage down into se Mass and the cape. SWFE indicator

[kazimirkai]

  On 12/31/2023 at 2:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Because the OP is essentially another ensemble member.....all the ensembles are is runs with slightly perturbed initial conditions. 

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Well I guess I just would have assumed the operational run would always be one of those roughly in the middle of all the ensemble members as opposed to one of the those skirting the edge of the distribution.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/31/2023 at 2:39 AM, kazimirkai said:

Well I guess I just would have assumed the operational run would always be one of those roughly in the middle of all the ensemble members as opposed to one of the those skirting the edge of the distribution.

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No, that is the point....what good would the ensemble mean be if that were the case? Sometimes it is, especially at less lead time, but the point of the perturbed members is to detect the degree of variance within the realm of physically plausible solutions and determine whether or not the OP makes sense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/31/2023 at 2:38 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup, you get that tell tale appendage down into se Mass and the cape. SWFE indicator

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I guess down the coast more it looks like a hugger distribution, but you can see how it runs into the block as it nears NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is actually a critique of a guidance suite....if forecasters feel as though the mean usually follows the OP, then it will be referred to as "non-dispersive".

[mannynyc]

  On 12/31/2023 at 1:32 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

So as of right now, is the 4-5 threat off the table? Or is it still a possibility in southern New England? The 6-7 threat looks like it's a non-threat right now... And that threat 11-12 still looks like the most potent at this point, correct?

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For reference the GEFS ensemble 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/31/2023 at 3:30 AM, mannynyc said:

For reference the GEFS ensemble 

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Some tasty members in there 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 12/31/2023 at 3:41 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Some tasty members in there 

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some were much tastier than I imagined 

[Typhoon Tip]

Trough coming a teeny smidge sharper 

faster tho so again, not enough time 

[dryslot]

Baby steps.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Wide right on 1/5, looks even a little east of 18z. Crushes NS

[CoastalWx]

So close though. Wonder if we sacrifice that for 1/7

[Typhoon Tip]

GGEM gone too. 

Think we’re seeing a consensus emerge proving the GFS was more right. Big bomb misses us. 

[Hazey]

Mauled on that gfs run. Wow. Getting interesting now. Still a ways to go.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/31/2023 at 4:14 AM, CoastalWx said:

So close though. Wonder if we sacrifice that for 1/7

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Doubt it

- the fast nature of the flow is just killing this entire period. It’s a looming negative factor and every time the model run seem to conserve more of that ridiculous speed problem we get solutions that are whiffy and stretched out like this and I’m not sure it’s not true. We’ll see.