CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He wine 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 12 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Until the storm comes in, and with it the pacific air. There is a high to the north. Even I know this 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Re the 4-6th ... I've always been leaning in favor of this event over the latter 6-8th. The reason is just to do with wave spacing in a higher speed rate pattern. It's tough to get even two middling events just 36 hours apart. When in this forecasting dilemma in the past ... personal experience, the lead tends to win. Having said that...there are examples of that in history (succeeding) Dec 1996 leaps to mind. That double dong I consider to be the same event because we finished up a 4-6" tree clinger, settled off to 30F for still-air sagging tree and powerline retention, with no clearing inbetween. The 2nd came along the following night with 9-15" and thunder snow. It can happen, but the rarity of it - more typically ... the models will start keying in on one or the other and sort of sacrifice the other's wave spacing and/or dynamics ( moisture/instability parameters). I like the 12z GEPs ensemble mean the best just for eye candy. Down near 994 at 132+ hours lead, with a lot of spread pointing to the NY Bite, while there is sufficient cold back loaded over land ...this is a tasty optic. Almost ominous. It's in the upper 20s in the 2-m while this correction vector is pointing toward a strengthening nor-easter. (not a forecast - just a muse for now) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just had that on earlier on way back from brewery Careful.. Runaway will get angry that you’re posting good all American music. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Are you saying we won’t Sey Mour Snow? High likelihood our Coastal wx will be rain. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just had that on earlier on way back from brewery Careful.. Runaway will get angry that you’re posting good all American music. Nah he’s good. I say look Pope….come down hereyah…said watchu want…” 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 The Pope is very angry today, hate to see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Maybe he stepped in some Goose Shit? 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Maybe he stepped in some Goose Shit? I noticed when I log on in the evening….Pope ain’t got nothing nice to say. But for 5 years he was so nice….Lord he was lovey dovey. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I noticed when I log on in the evening….Pope ain’t got nothing nice to say. But for 5 years he was so nice….Lord he was lovey dovey. He will pay you the rent next friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 25 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Until the storm comes in, and with it the pacific air. Are you a meteorologist ( just curious )? It Seems like very bias to not having snow around here. I know the pattern is not ideal, but you really lean towards two and gloom in the Northeast. Northeast. Maybe you're right, but things can also change even a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nah he’s good. I say look Pope….come down hereyah…said watchu want…” One red, one white , and one weenie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 This is getting good, and earlier than I thought. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: Yea first time since last winter season. Add it to the growing list of signs pointing to a big warmup in coming weeks. Wonder why Geese hunting season is still on? Maybe because they stick around and over winter? There's one in my freezer right now. Son in law got it this morning. Pope with the old wives tale, and I thought I was bad. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 The two systems almost have opposite problems. 1/5 we’re needing a bit more southern stream phasing (ala GGEM) and for 1/7 we need more northern stream injection. That’s what I’d be looking for on each model cycle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The two systems almost have opposite problems. 1/5 we’re needing a bit more southern stream phasing (ala GGEM) and for 1/7 we need more northern stream injection. That’s what I’d be looking for on each model cycle. Can clearly see that looping H5 vorticity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nah he’s good. I say look Pope….come down hereyah…said watchu want…” Pope got down thah.. took one sip .. said I feels sick .. I’s can’t drink, Bahrtenda said what you need.. one toilet , one wipe , and one clue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Are you a meteorologist ( just curious )? It Seems like very bias to not having snow around here. I know the pattern is not ideal, but you really lean towards two and gloom in the Northeast. Northeast. Maybe you're right, but things can also change even a few days out. It’s a long story but one that dates back to some big busted forecasts. He was in exile afterwards but vowed to return with vengeance against winter weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Aspeta Santus una Padre Santus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pope got down thah.. took one sip .. said I feels sick .. I’s can’t drink, Bahrtenda said what you need.. one toilet , one wipe , and one clue Here he is walking into mass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Someone needs to tell his excellence that there are two types of Canadian Geese , migratory and resident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 1 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The two systems almost have opposite problems. 1/5 we’re needing a bit more southern stream phasing (ala GGEM) and for 1/7 we need more northern stream injection. That’s what I’d be looking for on each model cycle. there has to be phasing with some of those EPS members, no? i find it hard to believe you could get sub-985mb members with just the southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 51 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Until the storm comes in, and with it the pacific air. Beer. or goose wine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I honestly have no idea what you’re talking about. The 1/7 setup has a high to the north. It’s not advecting in PAC air as it approaches. It would be drawing down air from that high. Gooseology, not modelology, silly man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, SJonesWX said: Gooseology, not modelology, silly man 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 What a terrible AFD from BOX. No mention of any snow or anything and then they end with a saying that not one person has ever heard of or used ever. Temperatures to start the New Year trend towards being mild in the low and middle-40s, with average highs generally mid to upper-30s. But the overnight lows, in particular Monday night into Tuesday does have the potential to get fairly cold given clearing sky cover and light wind... lows could drop into the upper-teens and low-20s. From there temperatures do moderate and return to more seasonable lows Tuesday and Wednesday night in the mid and upper-20s. Late week into the weekend the trend is for cooler conditions if the low develops and CAA overtakes the region. As they say, pounds of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a terrible AFD from BOX. No mention of any snow or anything and then they end with a saying that not one person has ever heard of or used ever. Temperatures to start the New Year trend towards being mild in the low and middle-40s, with average highs generally mid to upper-30s. But the overnight lows, in particular Monday night into Tuesday does have the potential to get fairly cold given clearing sky cover and light wind... lows could drop into the upper-teens and low-20s. From there temperatures do moderate and return to more seasonable lows Tuesday and Wednesday night in the mid and upper-20s. Late week into the weekend the trend is for cooler conditions if the low develops and CAA overtakes the region. As they say, pounds of time. wtf does that mean? Pounds of time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: wtf does that mean? Pounds of time? waiting for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: wtf does that mean? Pounds of time? No one knows. It’s never been used or heard of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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