January 2024 -- Discussion

[STILL N OF PIKE]

First week of January looks like it could wind up steiny 

the 0z euro shows how if next Friday snuck a storm up the coast , the high might be in that all too familiar position position for the CP ..caveats @ 8.5 days out

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 12/27/2023 at 4:33 AM, MJO812 said:

Better looking 0z Runs so far

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You must get the alternate ending version(s) of the models...

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 12/27/2023 at 12:52 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

You must get the alternate ending version(s) of the models...

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Why...were they not good?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/27/2023 at 1:10 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Why...were they not good?

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They looked fine to me. But we’re only supposed to ignore clown range these days unless it shows a torch, then we believe it. 

[dryslot]

I saw no issues going forward, Opportunity's are there.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah 00z looked fine. Weenies got their first fantasy blizzard so maybe that will pacify them for a few hours.

[MJO812]

It looks like the pv split is not going to happen but a rather weak one which is fine  .

[CoastalWx]

GEFs would be nice as they start to develop a nice Greenland ridge as the PNA relaxes. 

[forkyfork]

who needs a long range torch when it's torching right now 

[weatherwiz]

  On 12/27/2023 at 5:04 AM, weathafella said:

I think for future winters I’m ok rolling with la nada.

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Wouldn't mind a string of years of ENSO Neutral (slightly towards the warmer side) years. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/27/2023 at 10:35 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

First week of January looks like it could wind up steiny 

the 0z euro shows how if next Friday snuck a storm up the coast , the high might be in that all too familiar position position for the CP ..caveats @ 8.5 days out

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@forkyforkMade a great point in the NYC thread to the effect that most of the El Nino comeback seasons began to do so in the second half of January....two notable exceptions that I can think of being January 1966 and 1987. 1987 is a poor Pacific match, but 1966, which was my favorite analog, is not.

[weatherwiz]

February is a month where historically, we can rack up the snow numbers. We all could go into the last week of January and start February below-average in terms of snowfall and then come out of February quite a bit percent above. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/27/2023 at 2:04 PM, weatherwiz said:

February is a month where historically, we can rack up the snow numbers. We all could go into the last week of January and start February below-average in terms of snowfall and then come out of February quite a bit percent above. 

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Yea, especially for the southeast coastal areas and down through the tristate area into the mid Atlantic. People are just so frustrated right know that they aren't really able to view this objectively and fully appreciate how quickly ground can be made up relative to climo in one fell swoop.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is precisely the type of season capable of providing climo snowfall right up the coast clear into se coastal SNE in one system.

Remember I said this about 4-6 weeks from now.

[NorEastermass128]

  On 12/27/2023 at 2:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is precisely the type of season capable of providing climo snowfall right up the coast clear into se coastal SNE in one system.

Remember I said this about 4-6 weeks from now.

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A 30-50” KU?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/27/2023 at 2:20 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

A 30-50” KU?

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30"?

 Sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

All that said, I am about ready to give up on much of anything in early January....what a bag of somewhat colder suck.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

This is a pattern that definitely favors up and in at first.. GEFS and EPS are very tasty in the individual members for most of New England and the Northeast with interior favored for now with many big hitters . 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/27/2023 at 2:39 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This is a pattern that definitely favors up and in at first.. GEFS and EPS are very tasty in the individual members for most of New England and the Northeast with interior favored for now with many big hitters . 

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Yup.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/27/2023 at 2:39 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This is a pattern that definitely favors up and in at first.. GEFS and EPS are very tasty in the individual members for most of New England and the Northeast with interior favored for now with many big hitters . 

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Jan 4th - 6th

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/27/2023 at 2:42 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Jan 4th - 6th

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Yeah that’s been a popular period on the ensembles. Lower probability for something around 1/2. But that one has trended more sheared the last few cycles. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/27/2023 at 2:57 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that’s been a popular period on the ensembles. Lower probability for something around 1/2. But that one has trended more sheared the last few cycles. 

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Looks seaward at the moment, but GEPS especially look to hold promise.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/27/2023 at 2:57 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that’s been a popular period on the ensembles. Lower probability for something around 1/2. But that one has trended more sheared the last few cycles. 

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It's always been about Dec 28 - Jan 7ish for me.  The fact that we're seeing some "hopes" ( for lack of better word) during said period of time may be more academic, but getting those hopes to overcome destructive physics -  It's always an interesting quandary to me how you can 'off-and-on' a storm appeal and then ultimately have it occur(not occur).   It means there were back ground physics for both in play - what decides which rules out and which rules in, that is a fascination to me. 

anyway, yup - wouldn't be surprised if the 4th-6th because to add to your statement .. an aspect of that popularity is that it's been in +trend

[jbenedet]

I’m gonna be that guy again, but current guidance shows BL warmth during that 4-6th timeframe. It’s not prohibitive to snow, but def limiting. POP also highest where surface is warmest. 
 

Still a ways away but as I see it, not enough to get excited about until/unless some big changes on the ensembles.

[MJO812]

Looks like the PV split might not happen which might be the best thing for us. It's always tricky when it splits.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/27/2023 at 3:30 PM, jbenedet said:

I’m gonna be that guy again, but current guidance shows BL warmth during that 4-6th timeframe. It’s not prohibitive to snow, but def limiting. POP also highest where surface is warmest. 
 

Still a ways away but as I see it, not enough to get excited about until/unless some big changes on the ensembles.

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Yes or no to this ... I'm not personally implicating snow.  I'm saying there enhancing indication for a system there.

I will add that BL problems is endemic to the majority of D8-13 range 'signals' since 2015 really. 

[jbenedet]

  On 12/27/2023 at 3:34 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yes or no to this ... I'm not personally implicating snow.  I'm saying there enhancing indication for a system there.

I will add that BL problems is endemic to the majority of D8-13 range 'signals' since 2015 really. 

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Eh. Sure.

Perhaps we’re not evaluating these maps similarly. I’m doing more than just reading T values/anomalies but keying on which air masses are where. I.e., if signs indicate CP airmass just to our north/west, I wouldn’t be making the observation.

I’m in agreement that this window is best in a while, but still doesn’t look good imo. 

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 12/27/2023 at 3:30 PM, jbenedet said:

I’m gonna be that guy again, but current guidance shows BL warmth during that 4-6th timeframe. It’s not prohibitive to snow, but def limiting. POP also highest where surface is warmest. 
 

Still a ways away but as I see it, not enough to get excited about until/unless some big changes on the ensembles.

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Agree, it's going to take some major changes to turn that into something that is a lot better.

[NorEastermass128]

Warming up in the extended.  November pushes forward into January.  I feel like I’m living in the Mid Atlantic again  

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/27/2023 at 3:30 PM, jbenedet said:

I’m gonna be that guy again, but current guidance shows BL warmth during that 4-6th timeframe. It’s not prohibitive to snow, but def limiting. POP also highest where surface is warmest. 
 

Still a ways away but as I see it, not enough to get excited about until/unless some big changes on the ensembles.

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I agree. I see nothing to get worked up over. And I know John isn't...just saying.

I think we snooze until at least mid month and probably longer.