January 2024 -- Discussion

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure where the "car seat" per se comes from - I never actually spoke that specifically.  I don't know anything about car seats - it is what it is.

It was only how a parked car on a sun abundant afternoon noticeably warms in the interiors much more so beginning on or close to Feb 10 every year.  It was palpable.  Some warming on the 5th is abruptly a lot of warming on the 11th.

I had noticed that long ago, and every year through the decades it was dependable. 'Oh. Right. It's Feb 11 - that's why it's so hot in here.'  

Later I learned of the solar max, solar min, and the solar transition periods that shoulder either.  They occur roughly 91.5 days in length..  The solar min is November 8th to February 10. The solar transition 1 starts on Feb 10 and runs out to May 10. The solar max kicks in on May 10 and runs out to Aug 8, whence the negative transition goes from then to Nov 8.  If you think about it, first days of any season as they are currently defined seem more so arbitrary when considering these physical facts about the celestial mechanics of Earth and Sun orbital relationship.  "Solar Winter" is half over now...

I just thought it interesting that the suns ability to warm enclosures seemed to coincide so closely with that official onset of the transition 1 period, Feb 10.  I've also noticed that snow banks get eaten back even on cold days, much more so around that time.  This is all of course latitude dependent.  At 42.5N these period are closer to evenly temporally distributed but S or N, these periods are longer or shorter respective of season. 

What's really at stake is that crossing the Feb 10 date, tugs chode hairs of those basking in the snow climate narratives and statistics of mid Feb.  LIke ... here we are supposed to be enjoying our winter punch and this guy comes along and interferes with our narrative? Must seem like deliberate turd mixing - how dare. LOL 

Years and years ago it became abundantly clear to me that early performing winters, those that coincide more closely with the thick part to solar min period, were a lot more for aspects like retention and breaking records and stuff.  That's why I like my winters "front loaded"  - rare as that may be. 

These days, with seasonal lag and shoulder smearing everything's all fucked up anyway so it's becoming more moot.

    

I noticed that a long time ago and assumed it was because day length and sun angle can be described fairly well as a sine function, or a third of the way from the Solstice to the Equinox everything is half way to late March.  Why, if I understand, the Saturnalia is the 25th, not the 21st, the rate of change is so miniscule in late December, it takes 4 days past the Solstice to notice the day lengths are increasing.  Although that would seem to imply the Romans were behind most cultures if it took them over half a week to notice the increase in day length.

 

EDIT TO ADD:  If the SSW is 2 weeks away, and the cold follows ~3 weeks later, if it follows, ensembles looking warm in 2 weeks isn't a season cancel, no?

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

EPS nice in long range, many members have monster snowstorms in that Jan 6-8 range 

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yep alot of chances

cancel cancel?

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EPS nice in long range, many members have monster snowstorms in that Jan 6-8 range 

Any maps to show the possibilities. That's all we have at this moment lol.

Trying to keep the hope alive

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Any maps to show the possibilities. That's all we have at this moment lol.

Trying to keep the hope alive

I can’t post maps anymore it always says file too big  

[Allsnow]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I can’t post maps anymore it always says file too big  

Delete some of your old attachments 

[weathafella]

17 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Any maps to show the possibilities. That's all we have at this moment lol.

Trying to keep the hope alive

A foot+ mean by hour 360 region wide.  As in all 6 states.

 

 

[DavisStraight]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I can’t post maps anymore it always says file too big  

Should be able to cut and paste

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EPS nice in long range, many members have monster snowstorms in that Jan 6-8 range 

Yeah quite active. It’s not very cold for NE (in fact we may average AN the first week) but it’s still cold enough for snow threats. Bulk of the cold is out in the plains after the first few days of the month. 

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

So there was a lot of talk about the pattern flipping to much better after the new years. We still on schedule for that? 

Early in the December thread the date was December 20. We punt.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Early in the December thread the date was December 20. We punt.

Yup. Goalposts be moving 

[Torch Tiger]

21 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Early in the December thread the date was December 20. We punt.

that was a pipe-dream given Canada was blowtorched with next-to no snow cover

[CoastalWx]

Who said the 20th? Steve? Didn’t many say the week after Christmas is when things start to change?

 

I will admit December has been uglier than I imagined and I did not imagine a good month. 

[dryslot]

Super Grinch ugly.

[Torch Tiger]

I busted on SNE December if it's cooked, thought we'd have a light event or possibly two X-mas- post Xmas.  Then again I win because don't want light events  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

I busted on SNE December if it's cooked, thought we'd have a light event or possibly two X-mas- post Xmas.  Then again I win because don't want light events  

Same. At least interior anyways. Woof.

[78Blizzard]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Super Grinch ugly.

Last year you gave December a D-.  With 5 days left, how about a grade for TY?

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Same. At least interior anyways. Woof.

Yeah I was hopeful, even earlier this month,  for like ORH/ASH to maybe outside BOS (elevations esp.) to get a quick-hitter to end month.  hail-Mary for Friday/Saturday but whatever 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Last year you gave December a D-.  With 5 days left, how about a grade for TY?

Last year, Dec had 9.0" here, This year, 5.3", I wouldn't grade it any higher then last year and don't see anything that will change that.

[Torch Tiger]

much betterer for weenies, ofc it's a 384 off-hour gfs

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

This could be a season of a couple large events but otherwise nada. 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This could be a season of a couple large events but otherwise nada. 

Could also be a bunch of 1-3/2-4” events starting Saturday . We just don’t know 

[MJO812]

DT on board 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

DT on board 

Not a terrible summary of the next 3 weeks. 

[greenmtnwx]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

DT on board 

Is this an Alete?

[Torch Tiger]

Juneuary?

[Torch Tiger]

Is DT banned here? I don't want to speak of him if he cannot respond

[BRSno]

Just be thankful you’re not a South Florida weenie. forever chasing something that will never ever arrive. 

40s as lows for NYE is about as much as I could ask for. 

Left Eastie in summer 2019 and have not yet recovered. I will die on the “Deer Island isn’t a suitable measuring spot” hill. 
 

I flew up last weekend hoping maybe I’d get some now. Had my flight canceled due to rain on Monday (12/18) 

[cleetussnow]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

DT on board 

Kiss of death.  

[bristolri_wx]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

A foot+ mean by hour 360 region wide.  As in all 6 states.