January 2024 -- Discussion

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The American suite takes the MJO on a robust tour of the bad regions starting in early January.  This will have to be watched.  Ray's idea of January 20th and beyond seems to be gaining merit...that time frame will also match up with the SSW effects....assuming that actually comes to pass.

 

If you scroll through the 12Z GEPS/GEFS it seems already at 360-380 its reshuffling out west and the low is retrograding back towards the Aleutians with slight building in heights over W Canada and the block in E Canada lifting north...its like if you can just run it to 480 hours we'd be right back to an eastern trof.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

If you scroll through the 12Z GEPS/GEFS it seems already at 360-380 its reshuffling out west and the low is retrograding back towards the Aleutians with slight building in heights over W Canada and the block in E Canada lifting north...its like if you can just run it to 480 hours we'd be right back to an eastern trof.

480 Hrs .should be useful 

[qg_omega]

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

If you scroll through the 12Z GEPS/GEFS it seems already at 360-380 its reshuffling out west and the low is retrograding back towards the Aleutians with slight building in heights over W Canada and the block in E Canada lifting north...its like if you can just run it to 480 hours we'd be right back to an eastern trof.

Real post?  Eggnog?

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

480 Hrs .should be useful 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I still don't see anything to get excited about in terms of storms...while that certainly could change, I previously stated that I will not be suprised if we waste early January and need to wait until late month, beyond the reshuffle/thaw.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still don't see anything to get excited about in terms of storms...while that certainly could change, I previously stated that I will not be suprised if we waste early January and need to wait until late month, beyond the reshuffle/thaw.

That’s a lot of time to waste TBH. If we are skunked into late month it’s going to be a tough lift to get close to climo.

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still don't see anything to get excited about in terms of storms...while that certainly could change, I previously stated that I will not be suprised if we waste early January and need to wait until late month, beyond the reshuffle/thaw.

There’s snow coming Friday 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s a lot of time to waste TBH. If we are skunked into late month it’s going to be a tough lift to get close to climo.

No it won't. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s snow coming Friday 

Stay safe

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll bet the GEFS are right with the Maritime forcing mid January.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No it won't. 

Yeah we’ll agree to disagree there. Maybe you are right. I never like the idea of trying to cram climo snow into a month. Lot can go wrong. 2015 is never walking through that door again.

[cleetussnow]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still don't see anything to get excited about in terms of storms...while that certainly could change, I previously stated that I will not be suprised if we waste early January and need to wait until late month, beyond the reshuffle/thaw.

I am seeing punts everywhere.  No scoring, just punts out of FG range.  We could have a pattern flip for a couple weeks late Jan early feb garbage time, then back to warm.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah we’ll agree to disagree there. Maybe you are right. I never like the idea of trying to cram climo snow into a month. Lot can go wrong. 2015 is never walking through that door again.

Me neither. Unfortunately winter is 4-6wks long nowadays so we’ll need to squeeze out every shortwave fart over LI.

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet the GEFS are right with the Maritime forcing mid January.

 

Its been too amped in a short sample size so far the last 6-8 weeks...it almost always does better than the EPS but it was way too amped on the wave forecast in mid december

[DavisStraight]

I'd take a 3-6 incher in the meantime while we wait for a better pattern setup.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Me neither. Unfortunately winter is 4-6wks long nowadays so we’ll need to squeeze out every shortwave fart over LI.

Pretty much. Color me skeptical we are going to get a great 4-6 week stretch at this point though. Clocks now ticking 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty much. Color me skeptical we are going to get a great 4-6 week stretch at this point though. Clocks now ticking 

It's early 

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I am seeing punts everywhere.  No scoring, just punts out of FG range.  We could have a pattern flip for a couple weeks late Jan early feb garbage time, then back to warm.  

Do not agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Its been too amped in a short sample size so far the last 6-8 weeks...it almost always does better than the EPS but it was way too amped on the wave forecast in mid december

Yea, fine....just saying I think it has the right idea...my guess is we see Maritime phases coinciding with the wait for the Strat warming to propagate downward.

[weathafella]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's early 

Getting later now.  But at the same time I remember the gtg in Worcester in January 2015.  I was thinking maybe futility and asked Will to call BOS snow for the season-I think we were under 5 inches at that point.  When he said 53 inches I was surprised.  Pickles and I talked about on the ride back to Boston.   Who’d hav thought we’d get the all timer a few weeks later….

[78Blizzard]

I'm getting déjà vu reading some of these posts.  It felt like I was transported back a year to this forum.

 

 

 

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'm getting déjà vu reading some of these posts.  It felt like I was transported back a year to this forum.

 

 

 

 

 

TTTE

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'm getting déjà vu reading some of these posts.  It felt like I was transported back a year to this forum.

 

 

 

 

 

This December is worse than last year IMO.

[78Blizzard]

It's only one run, but the 0z GFS has virtually no qpf for the next two weeks following Thursday's now minor rain event.  We'll see.

[H2Otown_WX]

13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

It's only one run, but the 0z GFS has virtually no qpf for the next two weeks following Thursday's now minor rain event.  We'll see.

[ORH_wxman]

10 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Its been too amped in a short sample size so far the last 6-8 weeks...it almost always does better than the EPS but it was way too amped on the wave forecast in mid december

The biggest bias has been speed…models have been wayyyy to slow with the MJO propagation. They were trying to stall it in phase 7 for a week-plus like 10 days ago and then less than 3 days later it was already out of phase 7 and right now we’re already in phase 1. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The biggest bias has been speed…models have been wayyyy to slow with the MJO propagation. They were trying to stall it in phase 7 for a week-plus like 10 days ago and then less than 3 days later it was already out of phase 7 and right now we’re already in phase 1. 

Ensembles long range overnight really hitting that monster -nao hard also a lot less -pna

[moneypitmike]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still don't see anything to get excited about in terms of storms...while that certainly could change, I previously stated that I will not be suprised if we waste early January and need to wait until late month, beyond the reshuffle/thaw.

Will there be anytihng to thaw?

[CoastalWx]

Might be time to place the dollhouse at the 40yd line. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be time to place the dollhouse at the 40yd line. 

The SSW will save us…

 

ugh