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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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  On 12/24/2023 at 8:02 PM, ORH_wxman said:

That almost looks like a favorable Niña pattern at the end. You have a stout AK/Aleutian ridge with a -NAO and a PV down in Hudson Bay. 
 

 

IMG_9958.png

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The hints of the PV dropping IVOF HB have me absolutely ready to derobe and just lather up.

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  On 12/25/2023 at 6:16 AM, 78Blizzard said:

Meteorologists on social media are posting weather models about the increasing threat of a so-called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) over the Arctic, which could unleash wintry weather across the eastern half of the US in the new year. 

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Should delete them all.

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  On 12/25/2023 at 1:23 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

“Grandddady of all Polar Vortex disruptions”

what is this? The rose bowl.

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He’s been calling for a historic SSWE since November, 2022. Eventually he will get it right. Just keep forecasting (wishcasting) the wrong idea over and over again until the inevitable happens, then claim victory. Margavage, Bastardi, Masco, Margusity, Pann, Steve D, DT and over the last 2 years Cosgrove are the worst of the worst. All they ever do is forecast severe cold and snow and “Woof!” “Alert!” even when it’s blatantly obvious that it’s not coming

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  On 12/25/2023 at 1:31 PM, snowman19 said:

He’s been calling for a historic SSWE since November, 2022. Eventually he will get it right. Just keep forecasting (wishcasting) the wrong idea over and over again until the inevitable happens, then claim victory. Margavage, Bastardi, Masco, Margusity, Pann, Steve D, DT and over the last 2 years Cosgrove are the worst of the worst. All they ever do is forecast severe cold and snow and “Woof!” “Alert!” even when it’s blatantly obvious that it’s not coming

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It annoys me that hype sells even when the hype is blatently wrong or underperforms. 

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  On 12/25/2023 at 1:31 PM, snowman19 said:

He’s been calling for a historic SSWE since November, 2022. Eventually he will get it right. Just keep forecasting (wishcasting) the wrong idea over and over again until the inevitable happens, then claim victory. Margavage, Bastardi, Masco, Margusity, Pann, Steve D, DT and over the last 2 years Cosgrove are the worst of the worst. All they ever do is forecast severe cold and snow and “Woof!” “Alert!” even when it’s blatantly obvious that it’s not coming

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There are more people this winter calling for one .

 

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  On 12/25/2023 at 1:50 PM, MJO812 said:

Yep this is hideous 

IMG_7984.thumb.png.839690abfec9d083639b854f663e4d0b.png

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I'm actually more impressed that we're (apparently so...) on the cusp of a wholesale NH pattern change, yet ... it's almost eerily quite in the guidance. 

This has 'restorative event' written all over it, both conceptually and climatologically. Call it, "first it gets warm, then it gets cold, boom"  Call it an "Archembault event"  Call it whatever we want, history (and just flat out geophysics) vividly argue that such dramatic reconstructions of the super synopsis almost invariably drives an imbalance -related, large-scale mass-field correction event. 

Dec 30 thru Jan 1 had been hinting, particularly in the GEFs more so then the EPS/GEPs ( so its been voted against). It's in the right timing window ( though that could be extended to ~ Jan 7 really -).  They were struggling to trend, but overnight the paltriness of it unraveled. That's not cutting it - this shouldn't take hints. We should already been observing at least a quasi reproducible and sensibly real suggestion(s). This is flat out trying to do this remarkable change with nothing happening.  interesting -

I still would not let guard down.  The runs may look putrid overnight ... but they're trying to take us through a proverbially minefield over these next 10 days. And given the inherent limitations of determinism, not just in the state of the art, but during known headache variability during pattern changes ... they're doing so without a very good map.  

 

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