January 2024 -- Discussion

[moneypitmike]

Well, December was a loss.......we can only get better in January!

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Well, December was a loss.......we can only get better in January!

We can?

[ORH_wxman]

All ensemble guidance is calling for an SSW with a split of the SPV by Jan 5-6. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

All ensemble guidance is calling for an SSW with a split of the SPV by Jan 5-6. 

50mb splits nicely.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

50mb splits nicely.

What does this equal in sensible weather .  Can’t it send the PV do Europe or is this a different phenomena or do we know how this will likely effect us 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

0z gfs was one of the more enjoyable OP runs in a while , 6z didn’t follow but I’d like to see more chances show themselves on 12z . The more storms you see impacting you on a OP run is certainly Better than seeing misses , sort of shows you how good your chances are when you cycle thru several OP runs and their progression 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What does this equal in sensible weather .  Can’t it send the PV do Europe or is this a different phenomena or do we know how this will likely effect us 

It splits onto our side, in northern Hudson Bay. The other part goes into northern Siberia.
 

 I don’t know what it means for us at this moment, but it’s something I would want on “our” side.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It splits onto our side, in northern Hudson Bay. The other part goes into northern Siberia.
 

 I don’t know what it means for us at this moment, but it’s something I would want on “our” side.  

And if it goes into the other side is it still serviceable or we would need help in Atl/ pac ? Just trying to understand as future discussion will be easier to understand 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

And if it goes into the other side is it still serviceable or we would need help in Atl/ pac ? Just trying to understand as future discussion will be easier to understand 

Thought it was fraud 5 Pickles?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

And if it goes into the other side is it still serviceable or we would need help in Atl/ pac ? Just trying to understand as future discussion will be easier to understand 

Yes it would still be useful even if PV goes to other side because it promotes a -AO. When you have that in an El Niño, your chances for big storms drastically increase. 
 

As always, no guarantees it works out but also as always, you want as many variables in your favor as possible. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it would still be useful even if PV goes to other side because it promotes a -AO. When you have that in an El Niño, your chances for big storms drastically increase. 
 

As always, no guarantees it works out but also as always, you want as many variables in your favor as possible. 

I like the idea of big storms really increasing, thanks 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

As far as happening and being beneficial it is usually a longer shot in my experience , the fact it is looking high confidence to happen AND so soon makes it more interesting to me 

im still smiling 

Yeah a lot of times there’s hype about them and they don’t occur but this one is looking pretty likely to occur. 
 

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I like the idea of big storms really increasing, thanks 

Yeah I’m not as worried about the cold aspect in an El Niño because we don’t typically have to deal with a SE ridge like in La Niña. So even if the “bulk of the cold” goes into Europe or somewhere else, you’re still talking a -AO pattern in an El Niño with low SE heights….that’s powderkeg for big storms. I don’t need blizzard at 10F with ball-shriveling cold for a week afterwards…a pattern with lots of highs in the 20s/30s is just fine with me which isn’t far off from peak winter climo as it is. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah a lot of times there’s hype about them and they don’t occur but this one is looking pretty likely to occur. 
 

Yeah I’m not as worried about the cold aspect in an El Niño because we don’t typically have to deal with a SE ridge like in La Niña. So even if the “bulk of the cold” goes into Europe or somewhere else, you’re still talking a -AO pattern in an El Niño with low SE heights….that’s powderkeg for big storms. I don’t need blizzard at 10F with ball-shriveling cold for a week afterwards…a pattern with lots of highs in the 20s/30s is just fine with me which isn’t far off from peak winter climo as it is. 

yeah, something tells me that if we see a March 2023 or Dec 2022 type blocking this year with the STJ undercutting, it could be a pretty great time. the three last SSWs that occurred all featured significant blocking: Feb 2018, Jan 2021, and Feb 2023 all led to powerful -NAO blocks

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah a lot of times there’s hype about them and they don’t occur but this one is looking pretty likely to occur. 
 

Yeah I’m not as worried about the cold aspect in an El Niño because we don’t typically have to deal with a SE ridge like in La Niña. So even if the “bulk of the cold” goes into Europe or somewhere else, you’re still talking a -AO pattern in an El Niño with low SE heights….that’s powderkeg for big storms. I don’t need blizzard at 10F with ball-shriveling cold for a week afterwards…a pattern with lots of highs in the 20s/30s is just fine with me which isn’t far off from peak winter climo as it is. 

Yep. As long as the vortex doesn’t move into Siberia and elongates we’re good. I like the look so far. 
 

Seems like blocking may take place later in January as the cold eases some.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. As long as the vortex doesn’t move into Siberia and elongates we’re good. I like the look so far. 
 

Seems like blocking make take place later in January as the cold eases some.

Weeklies have been showing a lot of NAO blocking trying to develop during that time the last couple runs….caveats of course on that lead time but it does match what we’d expect after an early January SSW. 
 

Im hoping we can bridge the early January pattern to the developing -AO without much of a relaxation in between. 

[Typhoon Tip]

If/when a Sudden SW intrusion takes place ... down-welling behavior is a tightly correlated aspect, with a lot of lag prior to AO response,  20+ days. 

Just pointing that out.  Not trolling... but that may be unfortunate for January, because it could take the month.

Here's a speculative aspect.  I've come to find that the general noise of the planetary system can sometimes bury a SSW--> -AO.  The AO may be trending negative prior to the advent of the total physical SSW manifold --> -AO forcing, making it difficult to parse it out of the ongoing hemisphere. Other times, there have been SSW --> -AO, and the temperature distribution over mid latitude N/A did not appear very effected.  I liken that ( similar ) to how the MJO doesn't drive the weather pattern; it either constructively or destructively interferes. In other words, these are mechanisms that augment but don't dictate.  I actually feel confident about all this because the histories bear it out. 

It's interesting because in this case, the AO is going negative well prior to any total time-dependent SSW ( should one occur in the first week of January).

    

....It does open the question as to how any would-be SSW would integrate the hemisphere if/when this progression above is already going on.  I did something I seldom ever do, I looked over the Euro weeklies wrt to this subject matter..., as well as the GEFs extended. They were unremarkably flat-line around -.5 SD beyond D10 out deep into January - as opposed to the appeal of this CPC mean above.  CPC employs the 500 mb g-pot hgt distribution, whereas other sources use the lower atmosphere wind flux for theirs.  Uuusually these disparate methods come to tolerable equivalency.  Sometimes either  may be more representative of a given AO phase state.  

All this isn't enough headache ... No way, we're just getting started.  The -AO could start dumping it's cold over on the Euro-Eurasian and Asia side of the hemisphere. In fact, if that is already occurring when Sudden SW goes on to down -well and augment the negative phasing further, it may "choose the path of least resistance" and physically lock in the status quo.   Short version asks the question, does a -AO automatically mean much.  No, it doesn't.

It's certainly an interesting phenomenon, but proceed with caution. 

 

[Spanks45]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If/when a Sudden SW intrusion takes place ... down-welling behavior is a tightly correlated aspect, with a lot of lag prior to AO response,  20+ days. 

Just pointing that out.  Not trolling... but that may be unfortunate for January, because it could take the month.

Here's a speculative aspect.  I've come to find that the general noise of the planetary system can sometimes bury a SSW--> -AO.  The AO may be trending negative prior to the advent of the total physical SSW manifold --> -AO forcing, making it difficult to parse it out of the ongoing hemisphere. Other times, there have been SSW --> -AO, and the temperature distribution over mid latitude N/A did not appear very effected.  I liken that ( similar ) to how the MJO doesn't drive the weather pattern; it either constructively or destructively interferes. In other words, these are mechanisms that augment but don't dictate.  I actually feel confident about all this because the histories bear it out. 

It's interesting because in this case, the AO is going negative well prior to any total time-dependent SSW ( should one occur in the first week of January).

    

....It does open the question as to how any would-be SSW would integrate the hemisphere if/when this progression above is already going on.  I did something I seldom ever do, I looked over the Euro weeklies wrt to this subject matter..., as well as the GEFs extended. They were unremarkably flat-line around -.5 SD beyond D10 out deep into January - as opposed to the appeal of this CPC mean above.  CPC employs the 500 mb g-pot hgt distribution, whereas other sources use the lower atmosphere wind flux for theirs.  Uuusually these disparate methods come to tolerable equivalency.  Sometimes either  may be more representative of a given AO phase state.  

All this isn't enough headache ... No way, we're just getting started.  The -AO could start dumping it's cold over on the Euro-Eurasian and Asia side of the hemisphere. In fact, if that is already occurring when Sudden SW goes on to down -well and augment the negative phasing further, it may "choose the path of least resistance" and physically lock in the status quo.   Short version asks the question, does a -AO automatically mean much.  No, it doesn't.

It's certainly an interesting phenomenon, but proceed with caution. 

 

So, what I am getting from this is to not be surprised when once again the planetary forces will find a way to not let it snow in SNE.... It will eventually snow around here, but in the end likely another 2 week winter incoming. Hope I am wrong, but it has been rough.

[Torch Tiger]

at least we have a fraud 5 to track!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. As long as the vortex doesn’t move into Siberia and elongates we’re good. I like the look so far. 
 

Seems like blocking may take place later in January as the cold eases some.

Yup. Right on cue...zero changes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If/when a Sudden SW intrusion takes place ... down-welling behavior is a tightly correlated aspect, with a lot of lag prior to AO response,  20+ days. 

Just pointing that out.  Not trolling... but that may be unfortunate for January, because it could take the month.

Here's a speculative aspect.  I've come to find that the general noise of the planetary system can sometimes bury a SSW--> -AO.  The AO may be trending negative prior to the advent of the total physical SSW manifold --> -AO forcing, making it difficult to parse it out of the ongoing hemisphere. Other times, there have been SSW --> -AO, and the temperature distribution over mid latitude N/A did not appear very effected.  I liken that ( similar ) to how the MJO doesn't drive the weather pattern; it either constructively or destructively interferes. In other words, these are mechanisms that augment but don't dictate.  I actually feel confident about all this because the histories bear it out. 

It's interesting because in this case, the AO is going negative well prior to any total time-dependent SSW ( should one occur in the first week of January).

    

....It does open the question as to how any would-be SSW would integrate the hemisphere if/when this progression above is already going on.  I did something I seldom ever do, I looked over the Euro weeklies wrt to this subject matter..., as well as the GEFs extended. They were unremarkably flat-line around -.5 SD beyond D10 out deep into January - as opposed to the appeal of this CPC mean above.  CPC employs the 500 mb g-pot hgt distribution, whereas other sources use the lower atmosphere wind flux for theirs.  Uuusually these disparate methods come to tolerable equivalency.  Sometimes either  may be more representative of a given AO phase state.  

All this isn't enough headache ... No way, we're just getting started.  The -AO could start dumping it's cold over on the Euro-Eurasian and Asia side of the hemisphere. In fact, if that is already occurring when Sudden SW goes on to down -well and augment the negative phasing further, it may "choose the path of least resistance" and physically lock in the status quo.   Short version asks the question, does a -AO automatically mean much.  No, it doesn't.

It's certainly an interesting phenomenon, but proceed with caution. 

 

Yea, this is of more benefit to February.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah a lot of times there’s hype about them and they don’t occur but this one is looking pretty likely to occur. 
 

Yeah I’m not as worried about the cold aspect in an El Niño because we don’t typically have to deal with a SE ridge like in La Niña. So even if the “bulk of the cold” goes into Europe or somewhere else, you’re still talking a -AO pattern in an El Niño with low SE heights….that’s powderkeg for big storms. I don’t need blizzard at 10F with ball-shriveling cold for a week afterwards…a pattern with lots of highs in the 20s/30s is just fine with me which isn’t far off from peak winter climo as it is. 

The frigid patterns tend to promote more CJs, too. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The frigid patterns tend to promote more CJs, too. 

Just get me a good high and not recycled Humpback Whale breath from Labrador. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If/when a Sudden SW intrusion takes place ... down-welling behavior is a tightly correlated aspect, with a lot of lag prior to AO response,  20+ days. 

Just pointing that out.  Not trolling... but that may be unfortunate for January, because it could take the month.

Here's a speculative aspect.  I've come to find that the general noise of the planetary system can sometimes bury a SSW--> -AO.  The AO may be trending negative prior to the advent of the total physical SSW manifold --> -AO forcing, making it difficult to parse it out of the ongoing hemisphere. Other times, there have been SSW --> -AO, and the temperature distribution over mid latitude N/A did not appear very effected.  I liken that ( similar ) to how the MJO doesn't drive the weather pattern; it either constructively or destructively interferes. In other words, these are mechanisms that augment but don't dictate.  I actually feel confident about all this because the histories bear it out. 

It's interesting because in this case, the AO is going negative well prior to any total time-dependent SSW ( should one occur in the first week of January).

    

....It does open the question as to how any would-be SSW would integrate the hemisphere if/when this progression above is already going on.  I did something I seldom ever do, I looked over the Euro weeklies wrt to this subject matter..., as well as the GEFs extended. They were unremarkably flat-line around -.5 SD beyond D10 out deep into January - as opposed to the appeal of this CPC mean above.  CPC employs the 500 mb g-pot hgt distribution, whereas other sources use the lower atmosphere wind flux for theirs.  Uuusually these disparate methods come to tolerable equivalency.  Sometimes either  may be more representative of a given AO phase state.  

All this isn't enough headache ... No way, we're just getting started.  The -AO could start dumping it's cold over on the Euro-Eurasian and Asia side of the hemisphere. In fact, if that is already occurring when Sudden SW goes on to down -well and augment the negative phasing further, it may "choose the path of least resistance" and physically lock in the status quo.   Short version asks the question, does a -AO automatically mean much.  No, it doesn't.

It's certainly an interesting phenomenon, but proceed with caution. 

 

Thanks 

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

50mb splits nicely.

I want the 50mb -80C that europe has been getting. There’s been many reports of nacreous clouds almost down to our latitude.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I want the 50mb -80C that europe has been getting. There’s been many reports of nacreous clouds almost down to our latitude.

A met friend of mine over there has been sending me pics. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A met friend of mine over there has been sending me pics. 

Is Alison okay with it?

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just get me a good high and not recycled Humpback Whale breath from Labrador. 

Hmm, I'd rather the humpback whale breath for Labrador than dry air from western Quebec with that gives you a 200 volt shock static electricity every time you touch a metal object.

And speaking of static electricity, in the 1888 Great Plains children's blizzard.....according to best guesses they received about 6" of snow, with winds sustained at 50 gusting to 80, with temps falling to -15f.   People were literally getting knocked on their asses when they tried to load their wood stoves.  

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Hmm, I'd rather the humpback whale breath for Labrador than dry air from western Quebec with that gives you a 200 volt shock static electricity every time you touch a metal object.

And speaking of static electricity, in the 1888 Great Plains children's blizzard.....according to best guesses they received about 6" of snow, with winds sustained at 50 gusting to 80, with temps falling to -15f.   People were literally getting knocked on their asses when they tried to load their wood stoves.  

 

I’d rather it be so dry my skin flakes off vs a 36F rain event. 

[MJO812]

Gfs looks great

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The frigid patterns tend to promote more CJs, too. 

Right ... the antithesis to how a warm pattern tends to promote BJs.