LibertyBell Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The Texas cold shot was more extreme relative to normal and relative to the region's records. Numerous monthly and all-time records were set during the Texas cold shot. and also more extensive in terms of coverage too? Was that a weak el nino or weak la nina? I don't remember, but I do know we had two big snowstorms that winter and a couple of moderate ones too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: but 1966-67 which was one of our best winters, did not, right Don? I would love to see a repeat of that winter 1966-67 was a neutral to somewhat negative PNA winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 hours ago, ag3 said: Flipped to what? January will be above normal and only had 6-7 cold days. We are +1.2 now with the rest of January very above normal. Good question. We are staring down the barrel of our eighth consecutive warmer than average month. Even these inflated normals can't keep up with 2024. No notable cold to speak of. In fact, the minimum temperature this month has been quite mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Whether or not we see a “turnaround” at mid-February remains to be seen but the clock will really be ticking at that point. I see no reason to believe that March will be cold and snowy just based on history. If you look back on past strong El Niños, early-mid March turned warmer than normal. A very strong tendency for that in fact 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Good question. We are staring down the barrel of our eighth consecutive warmer than average month. Even these inflated normals can't keep up with 2024. No notable cold to speak of. In fact, the minimum temperature this month has been quite mild. Wasn’t November below avg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Wasn’t November below avg? Not in Pittsburgh. Maybe it was elsewhere in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Also, records were being set for warmth around this part of January, 1967, (68F on 24th) and pattern flipped with the "Chicago blizzard" storm of Jan 26-27. After that it turned very cold. In my recollection, warmth spreading as far east as Regina is not badly correlated with cold weather in the n.e. US, if it gets as far east as Winnipeg to Grand Forks ND then it's more likely to go zonally coast to coast. All depends on the amplitude of the upper ridge near 110W which is very likely to be there as a basic cause of any western Canada warmings. The chinook zone normally ends between Regina and Swift Current SK but really strong chinook warmings can push close enough that temps go to the low 40s (F) in Regina and Estevan. Chinook warmings in southern Alberta can be well into the 60s F and the record in Feb is 72F. I think that was in 1954 which produced a very mild Feb in eastern Canada and the n.e. US as well. So for February, I would say a lot depends on amplitude of what seems to be inevitably a strong ridge forming near the Rockies to west coast. If that ridge is flat-topped and lows continually feed in across Yukon and NWT towards n SK and central manitoba then it will be coast-to-coast warm. If the ridge pushes into the subarctic it will set up a pipeline of cold air from eastern/central Canadian arctic across hudson bay, Quebec and Ontario into the n.e. US. The Pacific lows are forced to go north into Alaska and die out over western arctic islands, or else come back south but as leading cold fronts for super cold outbreaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The latest CFSv2 provides what might be plausibly a "bad case" scenario for February. It essentially provides a map that is a composite of February 1992, 1998, and 2016. Even those cases saw variation in day-to-day temperatures, including several days with a composite mean temperature that was at or below 32°. Composite February 1992, 1998, and 2016 Temperature Anomalies: Composite Daily Temperature Data for New York City: February 1992, 1998, and 2016: In sum, even as February looks to get off to a mild start, which is consistent with strong El Niño climatology and also consistent with the cases implied by the latest CFSv2 monthly forecast, there should be some colder periods. Depending on the timing and track of storms, there could be at least some opportunities for snowfall. There is no guarantee that the month will be a snowy one, but the base case is that there should be some snowfall. It should be noted that monthly forecasts from this point in time on the CFSv2 do not have high skill. However, the model does show some skill at this point in time. Different outcomes remain possible. The map was used for illustrative purposes to show what a plausible bad case could look like. Don, Keep in mind (which I assume you are) that this very warm CFS Feb map is taking into account the first half of the month being forecasted to be much warmer than normal from the Midwest to the NE. The 2nd half, which I know you alluded to, is forecasted by the same model to be much colder than that in those areas but not cold enough (as of the latest) to keep the Feb average from ending up AN in NYC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 21 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Good question. We are staring down the barrel of our eighth consecutive warmer than average month. Even these inflated normals can't keep up with 2024. No notable cold to speak of. In fact, the minimum temperature this month has been quite mild. LOL, June, AUG & NOV were below average & SEPT was whopping 0.2 degrees warmer than normal. There's absolutely no sense of objectivity from some of the warm mongers on this site. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: and also more extensive in terms of coverage too? Was that a weak el nino or weak la nina? I don't remember, but I do know we had two big snowstorms that winter and a couple of moderate ones too. Moderate La Niña. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 24 minutes ago, GaWx said: Don, Keep in mind (which I assume you are) that this very warm CFS Feb map is taking into account the first half of the month being forecasted to be much warmer than normal from the Midwest to the NE. The 2nd half, which I know you alluded to, is forecasted by the same model to be much colder than that in those areas but not cold enough (as of the latest) to keep the Feb average from ending up AN in NYC. Correct. The latest forecast for the AO’s going negative in the extended range reinforces the idea that a change to colder conditions will take place. The transition could start during the second week of the month and be complete near mid-month +/- a few days, closely matching ENSO climatology. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Moderate La Niña. la nina after el nino..... so it follows our pattern of very snowy winters that happen in la ninas that come after el ninos (even when the prior el nino was not snowy). Next winter may be significantly more snowy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Rainy spring would be awesome We’ve seen enough rain the past year, no thanks. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: We’ve seen enough rain the past year, no thanks. . Yeah really, no rain until May please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Yeah, I was just talking as a whole. I really do feel we're in for another repeat of what we just saw with a huge snap from warm to cold. The difference is this one may give more cold to the east coast and this last stretch did. I love the frigid cold and spend a lot of time in it. But I'm not gonna lie, it was absolutely brutal at times. Looking back at how warm it was in December (After halloween snow and a frigid thanksgiving weekend), if we truly do another snap to extremely warm to start February followed by a sharp reversal to cold, it will really be one of the more bizarre winters I can recall. I enjoy getting outdoors in the winter also. The Great Lakes region is one of most beautiful in winter if you like cold and snow. It’s one area that is really positioned well next few decades for potentially increasing Lake effect snowfall as the warmer lakes stay ice free longer. While winter surfing in my original hometown of Long Beach was very popular, this guy closer to your part of the country takes it to a whole new level. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Wasn’t November below avg? Yes, especially in the east. NYC it was -1.3F, BOS was -1.7F. Here at DTW it was -0.2F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: I enjoy getting outdoors in the winter also. The Great Lakes region is one of most beautiful in winter if you like cold and snow. It’s one area that is really positioned well next few decades for potentially increasing Lake effect snowfall as the warmer lakes stay ice free longer. While winter surfing in my original hometown of Long Beach was very popular, this guy closer to your part of the country takes it to a whole new level. Incredible. Each region of the country has their flaws & beautiful points, but winter in the Great Lakes is always a fun time, especially up north, but even down here in the southern Lakes. @MJO812 needs to move to a lake belt. Colder winters often see less snow in total (2013-14 was an absolute epic defy-reality type scenario of insane cold AND snow) but more snowcover and with lakes and waterways frozen you can see some incredible things (hiking ice caves on the Great Lakes is an incredible experience). Warmer winters are frustration to cold/snowcover lovers (especially here in the southern lakes) BUT the tradeoff can be more storms and more lake effect. Look what just happened with the big arctic blast, lake belts got pummelled. Now the warmth will returning, keeping ice at bay, and if the cold does materialize towards mid-Feb, they will get it again. Warm winters do create more intense storms too; since last winter I have seen thundersnow and blinding snow rates multiple times. Winter just doesnt sustain itself. On the east coast, its clearly more feast/famine to begin with and seems to be getting even more extreme. I cant imagine the frustration snowlovers in nyc are going thru, but it wasnt long ago that nyc was seeing record snowfall (2010s). The wait may be torture but warming oceans and a milder winter climate on the coast may lead to some incredible snowstorms. The famine will outweigh the feast, but when you feast, you will FEAST. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Hard to do here with Eastern Canada snow covered and sneaky highs dropping backdoor cold fronts down... April & May are the predominant BDCF months & with that being said like many historical climo trends those features today are much less pronounced than they were back in the day. Actually it hasn't been hard at all to get warm middle to late springs around here since 2010. Looking at Bridgeport over those 14 yrs. APR has averaged below normal 3 times, for May it's once in 14 yrs. Even the colder MAR run we saw during the middle of the last decade is a thing of the past we've had 4 consecutive Mar's average solidly above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said: April & May are the predominant BDCF months & with that being said like many historical climo trends those features today are much less pronounced than they were back in the day. Actually it hasn't been hard at all to get warm middle to late springs around here since 2010. Looking at Bridgeport over those 14 yrs. APR has averaged below normal 3 times, for May it's once in 14 yrs. Even the colder MAR run we saw during the middle of the last decade is a thing of the past we've had 4 consecutive Mar's average solidly above normal. Warmer Atlantic waters certainly playing a role with weaker BDCF's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 26 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said: April & May are the predominant BDCF months & with that being said like many historical climo trends those features today are much less pronounced than they were back in the day. Actually it hasn't been hard at all to get warm middle to late springs around here since 2010. Looking at Bridgeport over those 14 yrs. APR has averaged below normal 3 times, for May it's once in 14 yrs. Even the colder MAR run we saw during the middle of the last decade is a thing of the past we've had 4 consecutive Mar's average solidly above normal. Less back door cold fronts is definitely a great thing once it can't snow anymore bring on the HEAT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmansascientist Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said: LOL, June, AUG & NOV were below average & SEPT was whopping 0.2 degrees warmer than normal. There's absolutely no sense of objectivity from some of the warm mongers on this site. To be fair there were 4 different months in 2023 that were top 10 (actually all top 5) for their month in Central Park history and 7 of the last 9 years have 3+ months of top 10 all time for their month. Honestly find this quite puzzling, I keep track of Central Park data from the beginning. One thing I track is hottest 30 year average and top 10 30 year average by month. 8 Months have their hottest 30 year average between 2022 and 2024 3 Months have their hottest 30 year average between 2010 and 2015 October's hottest 30 year average year is 1968 and all of their top 10 is between 1964 - 1975 (1964, 1967-1975). Just a really odd thing. Outside of October, there are 7 top 10 30 year averages before 2000 (6 of 7 between 1990 and 1999) total (out of 110). It's like the entire rest of the year is warming up, except for October. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The temperature reached 40° in Central Park for the first time since January 14th when the mercury topped out at 44°. Even milder conditions lie ahead. Temperatures could peak in the middle and upper 50s in New York City and Newark and 60s from Philadelphia southward on Friday. Somewhat cooler air will arrive during the weekend. This warm period will assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions. A storm will likely bring 0.50"-1.50" of precipitation to the region late tomorrow into Friday morning. Additional rain is possible during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade. The SOI was -6.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.153 today. On January 21 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.816 (RMM). The January 20-adjusted amplitude was 2.838 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.4° (2.7° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Given the fact that we may not see another snow event in awhile, I decided to take advantage of the remaining snow cover in Pemberton, NJ today. I had a phenomenal day hunting Partridge and Pheasant with my four-legged hunting buddy and best pal. Lots of great memories made in a wintry setting and some of my favorite table fare outside of seafood. It's an amazing thing being able to enjoy a snowfall for several days after an event. Also, does anybody know why my notifications are constantly filled with "reactions," that are of a hot dog? I assume this is the weenie thing? Someone either doesn't like me much or is hitting on me? Strange stuff. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 rain enjoyers stay winning as usual incredible year for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 33 with moderate snow. Starting to stick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 sleet in new brunswick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 So, just for informative purposes.... (because clearly the weenies are stacking up...,) what does that reaction mean? Am I unwelcome here for sharing photos of enjoyment in the snow? I always assumed that discussions that strayed from like-minded opinions were unwelcome here, but sheesh. I've learned a lot here, as have others from my companies. Guess I'll go on my weenie-way. Good luck all! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, dseagull said: So, just for informative purposes.... (because clearly the weenies are stacking up...,) what does that reaction mean? Am I unwelcome here for sharing photos of enjoyment in the snow? I always assumed that discussions that strayed from like-minded opinions were unwelcome here, but sheesh. I've learned a lot here, as have others from my companies. Guess I'll go on my weenie-way. Good luck all! Everyone gets the weenie emoji. It’s a sign of love…stick around… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, dseagull said: So, just for informative purposes.... (because clearly the weenies are stacking up...,) what does that reaction mean? Am I unwelcome here for sharing photos of enjoyment in the snow? I always assumed that discussions that strayed from like-minded opinions were unwelcome here, but sheesh. I've learned a lot here, as have others from my companies. Guess I'll go on my weenie-way. Good luck all! Don't be upset, the weenies are just a reminder to feed your pointer some as a reward. Very fine dog, do you show him? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, etudiant said: Don't be upset, the weenies are just a reminder to feed your pointer some as a reward. Very fine dog, do you show him? Field Trials. I'll have one of his pups from the 1st pick of his litter this spring, god willing. Passion of mine. I'm outdoors all of the time for work. He keeps me outdoors during winter. Emogi stuff doesn't bother me in and of itself. I just logged on and noticed someone meticulously went back through all of my posts and posted a hot dog on pists over a year old. Funny I guess, but also borderline creepy that someone would take the time to do that over the course of several days, with a given amount per day. I'll drop it. Just irked me. In other news, I'm going to be doing work about 60 miles offshore tomorrow. Looking forward to getting back out for the first time since the last blow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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