January 2024

[donsutherland1]

46 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks as always Don,

I find it interesting that our better years fall into the two highly snowy periods of 1955 through 1969 as well as 2000 through 2018. Is there an apparent cause for these periods? I believe per the MA forum that 2000 through 2018 was a positive PNA regime as compared to the RNA regime previously and currently. Do you know if 1955 through 1969 had a predominant PNA as well?

PNA+ for 1957-58, 1960-61, 1963-64, and 1969-70.

[Dark Star]

11 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

 A lot of people in this forum apparently have a crystal ball...interesting

C'mon, the term crystal ball is way outdated.  I depend on more modern technology, like what is pictured below...

[Blue Dream]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

and others have their Magic 8 balls and  Ouiji Boards 

Yeah, it's just the warm trolls like to be the loudest

[ag3]

32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not necessarily. Look how quickly it was flipped from December to January in southern canada, the midwest/lakes.

 

Flipped to what? January will be above normal and only had 6-7 cold days.

We are +1.2 now with the rest of January very above normal.

[ag3]

31 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Agree then we will flip to a cool wet spring. Rise / repeat 

Guaranteed. March and April will likely be awful again.

But I'm hoping we can finally stop that and have a torch spring.

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

Flipped to what? January will be above normal and only had 6-7 cold days.

We are +1.2 now with the rest of January very above normal.

The shift was dramatic in the Plains and Great Lakes areas. January will wind up colder than normal in many places there (particularly the Plains States).

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Guaranteed. March and April will likely be awful again.

But I'm hoping we can finally stop that and have a torch spring.

It would be nice to have a very warm March and April 

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

Flipped to what? January will be above normal and only had 6-7 cold days.

We are +1.2 now with the rest of January very above normal.

 

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The shift was dramatic in the Plains and Great Lakes areas. January will wind up colder than normal in many places there (particularly the Plains States).

Beat me to it Don. The 7-day period Jan 14-20 was one of the coldest on record for most of the middle third of the country, which is why I said midwest (and southern Canada). The east coast missed the brunt of the cold.

 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Beat me to it Don. The 7-day period Jan 14-20 was one of the coldest on record for most of the middle third of the country, which is why I said midwest (and southern Canada). The east coast missed the brunt of the cold.

 

And the month-to-date anomalies:

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It would be nice to have a very warm March and April 

Hard to do here with Eastern Canada snow covered and sneaky highs dropping backdoor cold fronts down...

[Allsnow]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Hard to do here with Eastern Canada snow covered and sneaky highs dropping backdoor cold fronts down...

Snow cover shouldn’t be a issue this year 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Snow cover shouldn’t be a issue this year 

I think it was spring 2010-there was literally no snowcover there from the Crazy -NAO and we torched.

[Brian5671]

Euro is close to 70 for a time city south Friday.  Cooler weekend followed by a mostly rain event then arctic cold for a couple days early next week.

[michsnowfreak]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

And the month-to-date anomalies:

That illustrates it perfectly Don, thanks!

Even here on the "edge" in Detroit, we had -30F wind chills and the + departure was quickly wiped away.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

PNA+ for 1957-58, 1960-61, 1963-64, and 1969-70.

Thanks again Don,

I have always been interested in the two periods given both were very snowy periods, each with numerous KUs. They always stood out from 1970 to 1999 and 2019 through now. I hope a study is published explaining each, proving/disproving any correlation between the periods (most likely each period was dominated by blocking).

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

February 1998 was one of the warmest February's on record. A few other strong Nino February's also were mild, although none close to 1998. With an expected flip by mid month to much colder weather it's way too premature to say this has never been seen in a strong nino before.

 

Although this winter has been dominated by mild weather (as you would expect in a strong nino), the past 10 days to 2 weeks is as severe a deep winter stretch as you will ever see during a strong Nino in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Things don't always follow script. So buckle up for your late Feb noreaster 

 

I don’t like using whole month analogs for a snapshot of a 5 day forecast to start February, the warmth being forecast across Canada is more significant than at the peak of the February 1998 warmth. While the cold over the last 10 days was impressive, its magnitude and aerial coverage was weaker vs cold past extremes than the warm extremes in December. The CONUS finished with one of the warmest Decembers on record. The cold was too short and not extensive enough to rank very high for monthly January cold extremes for the CONUS. But it was impressive for cold on a regional level even if the duration was much shorter than the December warmth.

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t like using whole month analogs for a snapshot of a 5 day forecast to start February, the warmth being forecast across Canada is more significant than at the peak of the February 1998 warmth. While the cold over the last 10 days was impressive, its magnitude and aerial coverage was weaker vs cold past extremes than the warm extremes in December. The CONUS finished with one of the warmest Decembers on record. The cold was too short and not extensive enough to rank very high for monthly January cold extremes for the CONUS. But it was impressive for cold on a regional level even if the duration was much shorter than the December warmth.

Yeah, I was just talking as a whole. I really do feel we're in for another repeat of what we just saw with a huge snap from warm to cold. The difference is this one may give more cold to the east coast and this last stretch did. I love the frigid cold and spend a lot of time in it. But I'm not gonna lie, it was absolutely brutal at times. Looking back at how warm it was in December (After halloween snow and a frigid thanksgiving weekend), if we truly do another snap to extremely warm to start February followed by a sharp reversal to cold, it will really be one of the more bizarre winters I can recall.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

It would be nice to have a very warm March and April 

Rainy spring would be awesome 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, ag3 said:

 

Flipped to what? January will be above normal and only had 6-7 cold days.

We are +1.2 now with the rest of January very above normal.

I do stand corrected.  Based on what the actual temperatures were this side of the pole when the 10 day maps came out, I was highly skeptical that enough cold air came in to give us 10 days of winter.

[vegan_edible]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rainy spring would be awesome 

no no no
once we're done with snow climo lets pray for 70 and sunny. no need for any more rain

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

"

The winter that year was bad.  Over the course of the winter, New Jersey had twenty six snowstorms and six of those were blizzards!  Every saltwater inlet from North Carolina to Canada froze over completely.   In fact, New York Harbor froze over with ice so thick that British soldiers were able to march from Manhattan to Staten Island.

George Washington decided to place his army at Morristown, New Jersey for winter quarters.  When they arrived at the encampment site in November 1779 there was already a foot of snow on the ground.  Some snowfalls dropped more than four feet of snow with snow drifts over six feet.  The temperature only made it above freezing a couple times in the whole winter.  Officers remembered ink freezing in their quill pens and one surgeon recorded that “we experienced one of the most tremendous snowstorms ever remembered; no man could endure its violence many minutes without danger to his life. … When the storm subsided, the snow was from four to six feet deep, obscuring the very traces of the roads by covering fences that lined them.”"

 

 

https://emergingrevolutionarywar.org/2016/01/23/the-hard-winter-of-1779-1780/

 

 

omg forget 1995-96, 2010-11, and whatever else winter any of us have ever experienced, the above is the greatest winter of all time and there is no question in my mind that there was over 100" of snow areawide!

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rainy spring would be awesome 

you have clearly lost your mind, outside of winter, there doesn't need to be anything but sunny weather with low humidity.

It can rain once a week, but only at night.

 

[LibertyBell]

51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hard to do here with Eastern Canada snow covered and sneaky highs dropping backdoor cold fronts down...

Well we have had warm and thankfully dry springs the last 2 years, so let's see if we can do a threepeat.

 

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

And the month-to-date anomalies:

How does this compare with the Texas cold shot from a few years ago, Don?

That was our last nice winter for snowfall too.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, ag3 said:

Guaranteed. March and April will likely be awful again.

But I'm hoping we can finally stop that and have a torch spring.

Maybe not so fast.  The last two springs have been warm and dry.  I think going from el nino to la nina we will roast and likely be dry too.

Of course dry is relative in our current climate, but hopefully we wont be getting more than an inch of rain per week.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

PNA+ for 1957-58, 1960-61, 1963-64, and 1969-70.

but 1966-67 which was one of our best winters, did not, right Don?

I would love to see a repeat of that winter

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest CFSv2 provides what might be plausibly a "bad case" scenario for February. It essentially provides a map that is a composite of February 1992, 1998, and 2016. Even those cases saw variation in day-to-day temperatures, including several days with a composite mean temperature that was at or below 32°.

Composite February 1992, 1998, and 2016 Temperature Anomalies:

Composite Daily Temperature Data for New York City: February 1992, 1998, and 2016:

In sum, even as February looks to get off to a mild start, which is consistent with strong El Niño climatology and also consistent with the cases implied by the latest CFSv2 monthly forecast, there should be some colder periods. Depending on the timing and track of storms, there could be at least some opportunities for snowfall. There is no guarantee that the month will be a snowy one, but the base case is that there should be some snowfall.

It should be noted that monthly forecasts from this point in time on the CFSv2 do not have high skill. However, the model does show some skill at this point in time. Different outcomes remain possible. The map was used for illustrative purposes to show what a plausible bad case could look like.

Feb 2016 had some very cold days (below zero) and snowfall opportunities, and big snowfall east of Manhattan

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Below are some statistics for New York City's cases with total snowfall of a trace or less through December 31st:

1895-96 was the one with the greatest March on record for snowfall wasn't it? Nothing in December and only 3" in January, that must have been the greatest backloaded winter on record to get to 46" on the season lol.

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How does this compare with the Texas cold shot from a few years ago, Don?

That was our last nice winter for snowfall too.

 

The Texas cold shot was more extreme relative to normal and relative to the region's records. Numerous monthly and all-time records were set during the Texas cold shot.

[NittanyWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s going to take further research from a team that has access to university computer modeling. I have read numerous studies in the last 5 years on how important tropical convection is in either strengthening or weakening the polar vortex. 

As have I.

 

And you know what has been observed in a fairly recent study?  Weak vortex events leading to west pacific convection flaring 2 weeks later.  A sign potentially the SPV was modulating the tropics and not the alternative and they went a step further to suggest tropo-strato interactions in the tropics themselves modulated MJO activity.

 

Response of tropical convection over the western Pacific to stratospheric polar vortex during boreal winter - Wang - 2022 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library

 

And you know what I think?  We're getting so far down the rabbit hole in trying to find any sort of signal or jam any sort of convective activity into the equation that we're losing the ability to use it in a forecast.

 

 I do know I can use strato-tropo coupling periods in a forecast though, and I did that this season.