weatherpruf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Last 8-9 years, hard to bet against the warmth which always seems to be longer and stronger than expected.... I'm no scientist but my experience of 61 years is that if you have not had a good event by mid-Feb, you ain't gonna get one. Actually, mid-Dec really....there are notable exceptions and that is what we can hope for. If not, I break out the fishing gear. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: I'm no scientist but my experience of 61 years is that if you have not had a good event by mid-Feb, you ain't gonna get one. Actually, mid-Dec really....there are notable exceptions and that is what we can hope for. If not, I break out the fishing gear. Years with zero Dec snow do not bode well for a big snowfall winter. Exceptions of course but as a rule what happens in Dec the winter will remember 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I remember reading about this-- this may have been the coldest winter on record for the northeast! I wonder how much snow fell? 100" here? 1780 - The coldest day of the coldest month of record in the northeastern U.S. A British Army thermometer in New York City registered a reading of 16 degrees below zero. During that infamous hard winter the harbor was frozen solid for five weeks, and the port was cut off from sea supply. (David Ludlum) " The winter that year was bad. Over the course of the winter, New Jersey had twenty six snowstorms and six of those were blizzards! Every saltwater inlet from North Carolina to Canada froze over completely. In fact, New York Harbor froze over with ice so thick that British soldiers were able to march from Manhattan to Staten Island. George Washington decided to place his army at Morristown, New Jersey for winter quarters. When they arrived at the encampment site in November 1779 there was already a foot of snow on the ground. Some snowfalls dropped more than four feet of snow with snow drifts over six feet. The temperature only made it above freezing a couple times in the whole winter. Officers remembered ink freezing in their quill pens and one surgeon recorded that “we experienced one of the most tremendous snowstorms ever remembered; no man could endure its violence many minutes without danger to his life. … When the storm subsided, the snow was from four to six feet deep, obscuring the very traces of the roads by covering fences that lined them.”" https://emergingrevolutionarywar.org/2016/01/23/the-hard-winter-of-1779-1780/ 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Years with zero Dec snow do not bode well for a big snowfall winter. Exceptions of course but as a rule what happens in Dec the winter will remember If by the end of January the long range maps do not hint of any cold air, you can usually stick a fork in it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Just for discussion purposes (not necessarily my thoughts about the ultimate outcome), the 2nd least amount of snowfall for CPK was 3.8 in 1918/1919. Can this winter take 2nd place? The second lowest was actually 2.8" in 1972-73. The Southeast had a mega snowstorm during that winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 59 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This BS. He is an intelligent poster and you don’t get to piggyback on him to back up your statements. Sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 We won’t see the sun until Saturday and then rain again Sunday and Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Read Judah Cohen’s blog. The SPV is about to go on roids and the stratosphere gets ice cold by the start of February. We are in big trouble Probably too late to matter, if it did that the impacts would not take hold til mid March when we'd be done anyway...I still think 2/12-3/5 is going to likely average below normal though I am wondering if the MA might be more favorable for any storm track 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The latest CFSv2 provides what might be plausibly a "bad case" scenario for February. It essentially provides a map that is a composite of February 1992, 1998, and 2016. Even those cases saw variation in day-to-day temperatures, including several days with a composite mean temperature that was at or below 32°. Composite February 1992, 1998, and 2016 Temperature Anomalies: Composite Daily Temperature Data for New York City: February 1992, 1998, and 2016: In sum, even as February looks to get off to a mild start, which is consistent with strong El Niño climatology and also consistent with the cases implied by the latest CFSv2 monthly forecast, there should be some colder periods. Depending on the timing and track of storms, there could be at least some opportunities for snowfall. There is no guarantee that the month will be a snowy one, but the base case is that there should be some snowfall. It should be noted that monthly forecasts from this point in time on the CFSv2 do not have high skill. However, the model does show some skill at this point in time. Different outcomes remain possible. The map was used for illustrative purposes to show what a plausible bad case could look like. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The latest CFSv2 provides what might be plausibly a "bad case" scenario for February. It essentially provides a map that is a composite of February 1992, 1998, and 2016. Even those cases saw variation in day-to-day temperatures, including several days with a composite mean temperature that was at or below 32°. Composite February 1992, 1998, and 2016 Temperature Anomalies: Composite Daily Temperature Data for New York City: February 1992, 1998, and 2016: In sum, even as February looks to get off to a mild start, which is consistent with strong El Niño climatology and also consistent with the cases implied by the latest CFSv2 monthly forecast, there should be some colder periods. Depending on the timing and track of storms, there could be at least some opportunities for snowfall. There is no guarantee that the month will be a snowy one, but the base case is that there should be some snowfall. It should be noted that monthly forecasts from this point in time on the CFSv2 do not have high skill. However, the model does show some skill at this point in time. Different outcomes remain possible. The map was used for illustrative purposes to show what a plausible bad case could look like. I think this is a really good take, Don. We should at least get some favorable periods in February. But winter lovers have to wait out long stretches of mild a lot nowadays. Even in the heart of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I just received an alert for a winter weather advisory,,, new city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The latest CFSv2 provides what might be plausibly a "bad case" scenario for February. It essentially provides a map that is a composite of February 1992, 1998, and 2016. Even those cases saw variation in day-to-day temperatures, including several days with a composite mean temperature that was at or below 32°. Composite February 1992, 1998, and 2016 Temperature Anomalies: Composite Daily Temperature Data for New York City: February 1992, 1998, and 2016: In sum, even as February looks to get off to a mild start, which is consistent with strong El Niño climatology and also consistent with the cases implied by the latest CFSv2 monthly forecast, there should be some colder periods. Depending on the timing and track of storms, there could be at least some opportunities for snowfall. There is no guarantee that the month will be a snowy one, but the base case is that there should be some snowfall. It should be noted that monthly forecasts from this point in time on the CFSv2 do not have high skill. However, the model does show some skill at this point in time. Different outcomes remain possible. The map was used for illustrative purposes to show what a plausible bad case could look like. Don it's a strong Nino. No surprise, they are always warm and your only shot is a big storm. Most of those winters are mild and snowless like this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. Quite the extreme flips across Canada. From historic warmth in Dec to an historic cold outbreak last week to historic warmth next week lol. Although Calgary can experience chinooks, they could hit the low 60s by next week (which is unusual). Regina, SK, more closer to the Plains/Midwest, is well above freezing by next week. Historic warmth across the west. A lot of extremes over the last couple of years. https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-52_metric_e.html https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/sk-32_metric_e.html The massive ridge doesn't help the drought situation across the Canadian Prairies and could also mean another big wildfire season and more smoke days for all of us out east. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 hours ago, MJO812 said: Can someone please change my name back. Thank you. Don’t worry Ant. I just took one for the team. I’m no longer NutleyBlizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Don it's a strong Nino. No surprise, they are always warm and your only shot is a big storm. Most of those winters are mild and snowless like this one. Usually, there's at least one moderate (4" or above snowfall). Based on the DJF R3.4 Anomaly of +1.5 or above: 1877-78: No 6" or above storms (biggest: 5.0"); 8.1" seasonal snowfall 1888-89: No 6" or above storms (biggest: 5.5") 1957-58: Three 6" or above storms (biggest: 11.8") 1965-66: Two 6" or above storms (biggest: 6.8") 1972-73: No 6" or above storms; 2.8" seasonal snowfall. 1982-83: One 6" or above storm (17.6") 1991-92: One 6" or above storm (6.2") 1997-98: No 6" or above storms (biggest: 5.0"); 5.5" seasonal snowfall 2009-10: Three 6" or above storms (all 10" or more; biggest: 20.9") 2015-16: One 6" or above storm (record 27.5") Borderline cases just below the trimonthly threshold: 1896-97: Two 6" or above storms (biggest: 10.0") 1918-19: No 6" or above storms; seasonal snowfall: 3.8" Overall, I don't think NYC will see a snowy winter. My guess for the AmericanWx contest was 15.0" seasonal snowfall. But it's probably more likely than not that NYC hasn't seen its biggest snowfall this winter. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Years with zero Dec snow do not bode well for a big snowfall winter. Exceptions of course but as a rule what happens in Dec the winter will remember Agreed, '14-'15 is like the only exception I can think of in my lifetime...maybe '04-05? Can't remember that December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Usually, there's at least one moderate (4" or above snowfall). Based on the DJF R3.4 Anomaly of +1.5 or above: 1877-78: No 6" or above storms (biggest: 5.0"); 8.1" seasonal snowfall 1888-89: No 6" or above storms (biggest: 5.5") 1957-58: Three 6" or above storms (biggest: 11.8") 1965-66: Two 6" or above storms (biggest: 6.8") 1972-73: No 6" or above storms; 2.8" seasonal snowfall. 1982-83: One 6" or above storm (17.6") 1991-92: One 6" or above storm (6.2") 1997-98: No 6" or above storms (biggest: 5.0"); 5.5" seasonal snowfall 2009-10: Three 6" or above storms (all 10" or more; biggest: 20.9") 2015-16: One 6" or above storm (record 27.5") Borderline cases just below the trimonthly threshold: 1896-97: Two 6" or above storms (biggest: 10.0") 1918-19: No 6" or above storms; seasonal snowfall: 3.8" Overall, I don't think NYC will see a snowy winter. My guess for the AmericanWx contest was 15.0" seasonal snowfall. But it's probably more likely than not that NYC hasn't seen its biggest snowfall this winter. Thanks as always Don, I find it interesting that our better years fall into the two highly snowy periods of 1955 through 1969 as well as 2000 through 2018. Is there an apparent cause for these periods? I believe per the MA forum that 2000 through 2018 was a positive PNA regime as compared to the RNA regime previously and currently. Do you know if 1955 through 1969 had a predominant PNA as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The Arctic region shifts with the anomalous +3 AO following the SSW will probably take further research. It is also a very warm signal for us while working in concert with the tropical convection pattern. Several years back there were papers showing a possible link between the Indian Ocean convection and +AO. So it will be interesting to see if such a strong +AO following this SSW is in any related to the recent record Indian Ocean forcing. We usually don’t see such strong forcing there at the time of SSWs. Would probably be a great project for a research paper. I don't see how it would be given the strato-cross section view. Could be wrong, but it appears to be a top-down cooling response in this scenario. There's some wave breaking potential for mid-feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 9 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: I don't see how it would be given the strato-cross section view. Could be wrong, but it appears to be a top-down cooling response in this scenario. There's some wave breaking potential for mid-feb. It’s going to take further research from a team that has access to university computer modeling. I have read numerous studies in the last 5 years on how important tropical convection is in either strengthening or weakening the polar vortex. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, bluewave said: It’s going to take further research from a team that has access to university computer modeling. I have read numerous studies in the last 5 years on how important tropical convection is in either strengthening or weakening the polar vortex. For the majority of the winter we have had a weak vortex. Normally that’s a good sign for cold, but it has only produced one chilly week this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 It will be very hard to scour away the pac warmth. Most of February, IMO, is done for winter. Most likely all of it. 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Even in this new era of warmth extremes, what is showing up to start February is way beyond what we have ever seen during an El Niño February. The highly amplified MJO over the WPAC is flipping the script. This would be extreme for December let alone in February when El Niño’s are supposed to be cold. Ridiculous how far into Canada the above freezing line gets pushed. February 1998 was one of the warmest February's on record. A few other strong Nino February's also were mild, although none close to 1998. With an expected flip by mid month to much colder weather it's way too premature to say this has never been seen in a strong nino before. Although this winter has been dominated by mild weather (as you would expect in a strong nino), the past 10 days to 2 weeks is as severe a deep winter stretch as you will ever see during a strong Nino in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Things don't always follow script. So buckle up for your late Feb noreaster 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: For the majority of the winter we have had a weak vortex. Normally that’s a good sign for cold, but it has only produced one chilly week this winter. the fast PAC has been the story of the winter so far-2 big jet extensions and neither storm was able to amplify last week due to the fast flow.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: It will be very hard to flip the script on that look to a cold/snowy one before winter is over Not necessarily. Look how quickly it was flipped from December to January in southern canada, the midwest/lakes. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, ag3 said: It will be very hard to scour away the pac warmth. Most of February, IMO, is done for winter. Most likely all of it. Agree then we will flip to a cool wet spring. Rise / repeat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Below are some statistics for New York City's cases with total snowfall of a trace or less through December 31st: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 A lot of people in this forum apparently have a crystal ball...interesting 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 23 minutes ago, ag3 said: It will be very hard to scour away the pac warmth. Most of February, IMO, is done for winter. Most likely all of it. Log off 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Log off got all types of heads coming out of the woodwork for this pac jet lmao 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: A lot of people in this forum apparently have a crystal ball...interesting and others have their Magic 8 balls and Ouiji Boards 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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