January 2024

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, NittanyWx said:

The arctic region shifts cannot be adequatelt explained by El Nino, warm SSTs and tropical forcing alone.  And we've already determined the lagged MJO signllal via round argued for more blocking in this period.

 

You're practicing selective verification here.

the major warm period over the next couple weeks is more so due to +EAMT supercharging the Pacific jet... MJO phases 4-6 in a Nina usually warm us up via jet retraction, which is the opposite of what we're seeing here

in the same vein, we should see a flip to quite a favorable pattern around Feb 10-15 as the jet inevitably retracts and the typical Feb Aleutian low takes over. the -PNA forced by the excess momentum also assists in wave breaking that likely leads to a -NAO

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

The arctic region shifts cannot be adequately explained by El Nino, warm SSTs and tropical forcing alone.  And we've already determined the lagged MJO h5 charts via Roundy argued for more blocking in this period.

 

You're practicing selective verification here.

The Arctic region shifts with the anomalous +3 AO following the SSW will probably take further research. It is also a very warm signal for us while working in concert with the tropical convection pattern. Several years back there were papers showing a possible link between the Indian Ocean convection and +AO. So it will be interesting to see if such a strong +AO following this SSW is in any related to the recent record Indian Ocean forcing. We usually don’t see such strong forcing there at the time of SSWs. Would probably be a great project for a research paper. 

[EastonSN+]

GREAT job this morning!!

This is what I enjoy, intelligent discussions which can lead to new ideas/hypothesis.

A lot of posters/readers have benefited.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the major warm period over the next couple weeks is more so due to +EAMT supercharging the Pacific jet... MJO phases 4-6 in a Nina usually warm us up via jet retraction, which is the opposite of what we're seeing here

in the same vein, we should see a flip to quite a favorable pattern around Feb 10-15 as the jet inevitably retracts and the typical Feb Aleutian low takes over. the -PNA forced by the excess momentum also assists in wave breaking that likely leads to a -NAO

But the +EAMT leading to the Jet extension is also related to the MJO propagating eastward.

https://usclivar.org/working-groups/mjo/science/mjo-atmospheric-angular-momentum-length-of-day#:~:text=MJO and Torques,Ocean (Madden%2C 1988).

MJO and Torques

Frictional and mountain torques induced by the MJO circulation anomalies are responsible for the angular momentum exchange between the atmosphere and the solid earth.  Positive frictional torques start the upward trend in AAM when convection increases over the central Indian Ocean (Madden, 1988).  As convection moves to the west Pacific, positive mountain torques from east Asian and South American topography provide for a continued increase in AAM.  AAM reaches a maximum as convection weakens near the dateline.  The relative roles of a direct forcing by the convection versus eddy transport processes induced by the convection remain to be determined.  Real time monitoring of the zonal and global AAM budget provides a convenient monitoring and diagnostic tool of the MJO.

 

[snowman19]

44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It will be very hard to flip the script on that look to a cold/snowy one before winter is over 

Read Judah Cohen’s blog. The SPV is about to go on roids and the stratosphere gets ice cold by the start of February. We are in big trouble 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Read Judah Cohen’s blog. The SPV is about to go on roids and the stratosphere gets ice cold by the start of February. We are in big trouble 

the SPV isn't coupled, though, so it doesn't really matter all that much. the troposphere is doing its own thing. maybe it has an effect in mid-March? this is the same as a SSW that doesn't end up coupling and has next to no effect

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Arctic region shifts with the anomalous +3 AO following the SSW will probably take further research. It is also a very warm signal for us while working in concert with the tropical convection pattern. Several years back there were papers showing a possible link between the Indian Ocean convection and +AO. So it will be interesting to see if such a strong +AO following this SSW is in any related to the recent record Indian Ocean forcing. We usually don’t see such strong forcing there at the time of SSWs. Would probably be a great project for a research paper. 

How much do you think the recent solar maximum has to do with this Chris? The sun is an extremely active phase of its long term cycle (the solar maximum extends from 2023 through the first half of 2024).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/01/14/solar-max-sun-activity-storms-aurora/

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Read Judah Cohen’s blog. The SPV is about to go on roids and the stratosphere gets ice cold by the start of February. We are in big trouble 

Just for discussion purposes (not necessarily my thoughts about the ultimate outcome), the 2nd least amount of snowfall for CPK was 3.8 in 1918/1919. Can this winter take 2nd place?

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Read Judah Cohen’s blog. The SPV is about to go on roids and the stratosphere gets ice cold by the start of February. We are in big trouble 

Cohen is a bit of a hack, but assuming we don't get much rest of the way many seasonal forecasts are headed for epic fails.    We will have had a 1 week winter....crazy.

[LibertyBell]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/01/14/solar-max-sun-activity-storms-aurora/

 

The solar maximum extends from January through October and has been ramping up since last year.

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Cohen is a bit of a hack, but assuming we don't get much rest of the way many seasonal forecasts are headed for epic fails.    We will have had a 1 week winter....crazy.

that's a pretty huge assumption

[Allsnow]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

that's a pretty huge assumption

We can’t use typical enso responses anymore in this new climate. Backloaded February Ninos are not a lock anymore. I think we are cooked outside a light event in early March that doesn’t stick in Central Park 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We can’t use typical enso responses anymore in this new climate. Backloaded February Ninos are not a lock anymore. I think we are cooked outside a light event in early March that doesn’t stick in Central Park 

there is no actual reasoning for that, though. i see no reason to believe that we won't have a two to three week long favorable period from like Feb 15 - March 10 as the jet lessens. people are just jaded right now, can't blame them

a supercharged Pacific jet is also pretty boilerplate strong Nino stuff. that's nothing new

[the_other_guy]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We can’t use typical enso responses anymore in this new climate. Backloaded February Ninos are not a lock anymore. I think we are cooked outside a light event in early March that doesn’t stick in Central Park 

Okay, ill play.

 

Based on what science is this prediction?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We can’t use typical enso responses anymore in this new climate. Backloaded February Ninos are not a lock anymore. I think we are cooked outside a light event in early March that doesn’t stick in Central Park 

what happened to the late February period everyone was talking about?

it's very rare not to get at least a light to moderate event in February no matter how mild the month is overall.

what are the odds of not getting at least a 2-4" event in the entire month of February? I would have to say not more than 20%?

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

Okay, ill play.

 

Based on what science is this prediction?

 

 

Based on statistics alone it's very difficult not to get at least a light to moderate event in February, regardless of the pattern.

I'd say at least one 2-4 inch event.

 

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We can’t use typical enso responses anymore in this new climate. Backloaded February Ninos are not a lock anymore. I think we are cooked outside a light event in early March that doesn’t stick in Central Park 

Correct, I said this months ago.  Typical loaded February Nino is no longer relevant.  SSTs are so warm on a global scale, anything before 2015 really can’t be used

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Correct, I said this months ago.  Typical loaded February Nino is no longer relevant.  SSTs are so warm on a global scale, anything before 2015 really can’t be used

you declared winter over on January 20. 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

you declared winter over on January 20. 

Winter is over bud

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that's a pretty huge assumption

Last 8-9 years, hard to bet against the warmth which always seems to be longer and stronger than expected....

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Correct, I said this months ago.  Typical loaded February Nino is no longer relevant.  SSTs are so warm on a global scale, anything before 2015 really can’t be used

one should probably wait until February is over to make such a statement

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what happened to the late February period everyone was talking about?

it's very rare not to get at least a light to moderate event in February no matter how mild the month is overall.

what are the odds of not getting at least a 2-4" event in the entire month of February? I would have to say not more than 20%?

 

nothing has happened to it. speculation has become extremely negative, but it's just speculation. there's no actual evidence that we won't enter a favorable, more typical Nino pattern in mid-February besides persistence (this winter has not been a good example of persistence, by the way) and vibes

[donsutherland1]

That the closing 7-10 days of January is likely to be milder than the preceding period is consistent with the evolution of strong Niño winters (DJF tri-monthly ONI of +1.5°C or above). Such winters typically see cold return for February with the coldest period being around mid-month +/- several days. There is year-to-year variability among the ENSO cases. Moreover, some of those cases had a warm February overall.

The evolving period of warmer than normal temperatures, which will likely run into at least the first week of February with some brief cooler but severely cold shots, is being driven by a confluence of factors:

• ENSO influence (AAM is positive and likely to remain positive through the end of January)
• Teleconnections: The AO has gone strongly positive and the EPO is on the cusp of going positive (1/20 data)
• MJO: The MJO is currently in Phase 5 at a very high amplitude (2.000 or above) and will be moving through Phases 6 and into at least Phase 7 at a high amplitude (1.000 or above).
• Forthcoming North Pacific Jet Extension

The PNA+ and Equatorward orientation of the Pacific Jet Extension will likely preclude a sustained stretch of near record or even record warmth in the New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia areas through January 31st. Nevertheless, readings will be warmer to much warmer than normal. The warmth will likely roll on into at least the first week of February.

North Pacific Jet Phase Diagram:

January 16-31: Past Strong El Niño Cases vs. January 2024:

February Strong El Niño Cases:

 

 

 

[NittanyWx]

47 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the SPV isn't coupled, though, so it doesn't really matter all that much. the troposphere is doing its own thing. maybe it has an effect in mid-March? this is the same as a SSW that doesn't end up coupling and has next to no effect

Correct, the SPV is completely decoupled right now (this wasn't the case a few weeks ago), and thus strato warming interactions (top down) at this point are likely to only play out in the typical 3-4 week delay.

 

The reasons for this coupling in January can be traced back to about 3 separete things occurring, but I think this is a very nice and clean way to show the couple/decoupling of the SPV/TPV:

 

[NittanyWx]

43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Cohen is a bit of a hack, but assuming we don't get much rest of the way many seasonal forecasts are headed for epic fails.    We will have had a 1 week winter....crazy.

Cohen is to strato as some of the MJO/GSDM folks are to their chosen variable.  Judah's about as one track as it gets to strato.  Both sets of folks have their correlations fail spectacularly at times in the mid/high latitudes, especially when it comes to spatial distribution of 2m temps.

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Okay, ill play.

 

Based on what science is this prediction?

 

 

Let me give it a try. Back in December 2022 during a La Niña we saw one of the most negative monthly -AOs on record. Our previous 4 La Ninas with such a strong -AOs were 2010,2005,2000, and 1995. Those Decembers all produced 6” events around NYC. Last year we didn’t. Expectations were for a great frontloaded start to winter last year before the period finished. But the Pacific found a way to spoil the party. Now we are entering the typically backloaded part of an El Niño and the Pacific again is too overpowering at least onto the early part of February. So at this point I would say It’s still too early to write off mid to late February for the potential to produce snowfall in NYC. But if we get to February 10th and prospects still aren’t looking good, then NYC would have a shot at its first back to back under 10” seasons. But since it only takes one, it’s too early to call with certainty now. But all we can say for sure the typically backloaded January 15 to probably around February 7th probably won’t live up to past great El Niño periods.

[SACRUS]

 

34 and mostly cloudy.  Melt off in CNJ in full force. Warm / wet through Fri, then once we clear off to the races (winter wise) temps mid - upper 50s perhaps a 60 Fri / Sa. Storm pulls down some colder air into the northeast 1/29 - 1/31.  Overall warmer than normal to open Feb through the 8/9 before turn to colder is possible.

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Let me give it a try. Back in December 2022 during a La Niña we saw one of the most negative monthly -AOs on record. Our previous 4 La Ninas with such a strong -AOs were 2010,2005,2000, and 1995. Those Decembers all produced 6” events around NYC. Last year we didn’t. Expectations were for a great frontloaded start to winter last year before the period finished. But the Pacific found a way to spoil the party. Now we are entering the typically backloaded part of an El Niño and the Pacific again is too overpowering at least onto the early part of February. So at this point I would say It’s still too early to write off mid to late February for the potential to produce snowfall in NYC. But if we get to February 10th and prospects still aren’t looking good, then NYC would have a shot at its first back to back under 10” seasons. But since it only takes one, it’s too early to call with certainty now. But all we can say for sure the typically backloaded January 15 to probably around February 7th probably won’t live up to past great El Niño periods.

This 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 62 (2018)
NYC: 63 (1874)
LGA: 62 (1967)


Lows:

EWR: -4 (1936)
NYC: -3 (1936)
LGA: 3 (1976)

Historical:

 

1780 - The coldest day of the coldest month of record in the northeastern U.S. A British Army thermometer in New York City registered a reading of 16 degrees below zero. During that infamous hard winter the harbor was frozen solid for five weeks, and the port was cut off from sea supply. (David Ludlum)

 

1916: Browning, Montana, saw the temperature plummet 100 degrees in 24 hours on January 23-24, from a relatively mild 44 to a bone-chilling 56 degrees below zero.

 

1969: An F4 tornado cut a 120-mile long path from Jefferson through Copiah, Simpson, Smith, Scott, and Newton Counties in Mississippi, killing 32 and injuring 241 others. Property damage was estimated at $2 million. An inbound Delta Airlines aircraft reported a hook echo on its scope with this storm.

1971 - The temperature at Prospect Creek, AK, plunged to 80 degrees below zero, the coldest reading of record for the United States. (David Ludlum)

 

1971: Alaska, and the US, lowest official temp, -80F (-62.2C), was set at Prospect Creek, a Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline construction camp. Fun fact: the low was initially recorded as -79F but adjusted after thermometer calibration. 

 

1987 - Strong winds ushered bitterly cold air into the north central U.S., and produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals in northwest Lower Michigan ranged up to 17 inches in Leelanau County. Wind chill temperatures reached 70 degrees below zero at Sault Ste Marie MI and Hibbing MN. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Northeastern Colorado experienced its most severe windstorm in years. A wind gust to 92 mph was recorded at Boulder CO before the anenometer blew away, and in the mountains, a wind gust to 120 mph was reported at Mines Peak. The high winds blew down a partially constructed viaduct east of Boulder, as nine unanchored concrete girders, each weighing forty-five tons, were blown off their supports. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure brought heavy snow to Wyoming, with 18 inches reported at the Shoshone National Forest, and 17 inches in the Yellowstone Park area. Gunnison CO, with a low of 19 degrees below zero, was the cold spot in the nation for the twelfth day in a row. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A Pacific cold front brought strong and gusty winds to the northwestern U.S. Winds in southeastern Idaho gusted to 62 mph at Burley. Strong winds also prevailed along the eastern slopes of the northern and central Rockies. Winds in Wyoming gusted to 74 mph in Goshen County. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 62 (2018)
NYC: 63 (1874)
LGA: 62 (1967)


Lows:

EWR: -4 (1936)
NYC: -3 (1936)
LGA: 3 (1976)

Historical:

 

1780 - The coldest day of the coldest month of record in the northeastern U.S. A British Army thermometer in New York City registered a reading of 16 degrees below zero. During that infamous hard winter the harbor was frozen solid for five weeks, and the port was cut off from sea supply. (David Ludlum)

 

1916: Browning, Montana, saw the temperature plummet 100 degrees in 24 hours on January 23-24, from a relatively mild 44 to a bone-chilling 56 degrees below zero.

 

1969: An F4 tornado cut a 120-mile long path from Jefferson through Copiah, Simpson, Smith, Scott, and Newton Counties in Mississippi, killing 32 and injuring 241 others. Property damage was estimated at $2 million. An inbound Delta Airlines aircraft reported a hook echo on its scope with this storm.

1971 - The temperature at Prospect Creek, AK, plunged to 80 degrees below zero, the coldest reading of record for the United States. (David Ludlum)

 

1971: Alaska, and the US, lowest official temp, -80F (-62.2C), was set at Prospect Creek, a Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline construction camp. Fun fact: the low was initially recorded as -79F but adjusted after thermometer calibration. 

 

1987 - Strong winds ushered bitterly cold air into the north central U.S., and produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals in northwest Lower Michigan ranged up to 17 inches in Leelanau County. Wind chill temperatures reached 70 degrees below zero at Sault Ste Marie MI and Hibbing MN. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Northeastern Colorado experienced its most severe windstorm in years. A wind gust to 92 mph was recorded at Boulder CO before the anenometer blew away, and in the mountains, a wind gust to 120 mph was reported at Mines Peak. The high winds blew down a partially constructed viaduct east of Boulder, as nine unanchored concrete girders, each weighing forty-five tons, were blown off their supports. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure brought heavy snow to Wyoming, with 18 inches reported at the Shoshone National Forest, and 17 inches in the Yellowstone Park area. Gunnison CO, with a low of 19 degrees below zero, was the cold spot in the nation for the twelfth day in a row. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A Pacific cold front brought strong and gusty winds to the northwestern U.S. Winds in southeastern Idaho gusted to 62 mph at Burley. Strong winds also prevailed along the eastern slopes of the northern and central Rockies. Winds in Wyoming gusted to 74 mph in Goshen County. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

I remember reading about this-- this may have been the coldest winter on record for the northeast! I wonder how much snow fell? 100" here?

1780 - The coldest day of the coldest month of record in the northeastern U.S. A British Army thermometer in New York City registered a reading of 16 degrees below zero. During that infamous hard winter the harbor was frozen solid for five weeks, and the port was cut off from sea supply. (David Ludlum)